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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Legia Warszawa take on Cracovia Krakow.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 24 as Legia Warszawa welcome Cracovia Krakow to Stadion Wojska Polskiego. Kick-off is set for Sunday 8 March 2026 at 19:15 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Legia Warszawa have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L D D W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Legia Warszawa's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Stadion Wojska Polskiego this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Legia Warszawa are significantly better at Stadion Wojska Polskiego than their overall form suggests.

Cracovia Krakow — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Cracovia Krakow away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Legia Warszawa at 0.80 PPG versus Cracovia Krakow's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Legia Warszawa, 5 for Cracovia Krakow and 1 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2025, ended 1–2 with Cracovia Krakow winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Legia Warszawa in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

Cracovia Krakow in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Legia Warszawa 65% and Cracovia Krakow 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Legia Warszawa 53% | Cracovia Krakow 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 0.98 xG and Cracovia Krakow 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 0.921 / defence 1.028 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.820 / defence 0.740. League average goals — home 1.440 / away 1.151. Cracovia Krakow's defence strength of 0.740 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 57 Legia Warszawa games / 57 Cracovia Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 33% | Draw 34% | Cracovia Krakow 32%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 3.03 | Draw 2.94 | Cracovia Krakow 3.12. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

The Poisson model projects 1.95 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Legia Warszawa 60% | Cracovia Krakow 30% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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