Legia Warszawa 1-0 Cracovia Krakow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Legia Warszawa take on Cracovia Krakow.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 24 as Legia Warszawa welcome Cracovia Krakow to Stadion Wojska Polskiego. Kick-off is set for Sunday 8 March 2026 at 19:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Legia Warszawa have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L D D W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Legia Warszawa's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Stadion Wojska Polskiego this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Legia Warszawa are significantly better at Stadion Wojska Polskiego than their overall form suggests.
Cracovia Krakow — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cracovia Krakow away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Legia Warszawa at 0.80 PPG versus Cracovia Krakow's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Legia Warszawa, 5 for Cracovia Krakow and 1 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2025, ended 1–2 with Cracovia Krakow winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Legia Warszawa in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Cracovia Krakow in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Legia Warszawa 65% and Cracovia Krakow 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Legia Warszawa 53% | Cracovia Krakow 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 0.98 xG and Cracovia Krakow 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 0.921 / defence 1.028 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.820 / defence 0.740. League average goals — home 1.440 / away 1.151. Cracovia Krakow's defence strength of 0.740 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 57 Legia Warszawa games / 57 Cracovia Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 33% | Draw 34% | Cracovia Krakow 32%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 3.03 | Draw 2.94 | Cracovia Krakow 3.12. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.95 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Legia Warszawa 60% | Cracovia Krakow 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Legia Warszawa vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadion Wojska Polskiego • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Mar 2026, 19:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 33% | Draw 34% | Cracovia Krakow 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 40% | xG Legia Warszawa 0.98 / Cracovia Krakow 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Legia Warszawa attack 0.921 / def 1.028 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.820 / def 0.740 | league avg home 1.440 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Legia Warszawa xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Cracovia Krakow xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Legia Warszawa vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
Legia Warszawa vs Cracovia Krakow kicked off at 19:15 on Sunday 8 March 2026 at Stadion Wojska Polskiego.
What was the final score in Legia Warszawa vs Cracovia Krakow?
Legia Warszawa 1 - 0 Cracovia Krakow.
Where is Legia Warszawa vs Cracovia Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Wojska Polskiego.
What competition is Legia Warszawa vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
Legia Warszawa vs Cracovia Krakow is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Legia Warszawa vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Legia Warszawa a 33% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 32% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Legia Warszawa and Cracovia Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Legia Warszawa vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Cracovia Krakow?
Record (9 meetings): Legia Warszawa 3W | Draws 1 | Cracovia Krakow 5W.
What form are Legia Warszawa and Cracovia Krakow in?
Legia Warszawa (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-W-D. Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Legia Warszawa's attack at 0.92x the league average against Cracovia Krakow's defence at 0.74x — combine the two and it projects 0.98 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cracovia Krakow's attack versus Legia Warszawa's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.02
34%
2.91
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Legia Warszawa xG
Total xG
1.95
0.97
Cracovia Krakow xG
3.02
33%
Home win
2.91
34%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
37%
2.67
Win to Nil
13%
7.98
12%
8.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.2 | 13.8 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Legia Warszawa vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Legia Warszawa and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Legia Warszawa and 0.97 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Legia Warszawa vs Cracovia Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 57 outings, Legia Warszawa have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 20W 19D 18L record — L-D-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Legia Warszawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cracovia Krakow's form line: 22W 18D 17L from 57 games, 1.47 PPG, last five W-D-D-D-L. The sample for Cracovia Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Legia Warszawa on 1.39 PPG, Cracovia Krakow on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Legia Warszawa have posted 1.68 PPG from 28 outings (13W 8D 7L).
On the road, Cracovia Krakow have gone 12W 7D 9L from 28 away games — 1.54 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Legia Warszawa are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Cracovia Krakow are on 1.53 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Legia Warszawa have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Cracovia Krakow in 65%.
Last 57 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Legia Warszawa
Blended
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Legia Warszawa and Cracovia Krakow in coming into this match?
Legia Warszawa have gone 20W 19D 18L in their last 57 games (1.39 PPG), while Cracovia Krakow have gone 22W 18D 17L in their last 57 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Legia Warszawa at home or Cracovia Krakow away?
Legia Warszawa's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Legia Warszawa at home: 1.68 PPG; Cracovia Krakow away: 1.54 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 May 2022, when Legia Warszawa won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Legia Warszawa's record when hosting Cracovia Krakow specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Legia Warszawa
1
Draws
5
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Cracovia Krakow?
From 10 meetings on record, Legia Warszawa have won 4, Cracovia Krakow have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Legia Warszawa and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Legia Warszawa 1-0 Cracovia Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Legia Warszawa and Cracovia Krakow?
Cracovia Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Legia Warszawa 61%, Cracovia Krakow 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Legia Warszawa) and 57% (Cracovia Krakow). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cracovia Krakow in 36%; Legia Warszawa have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Legia Warszawa home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Legia Warszawa play Cracovia Krakow?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Legia Warszawa's games and 61% of Cracovia Krakow's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Legia Warszawa vs Cracovia Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Legia Warszawa's matches and 57% of Cracovia Krakow's.
Do Legia Warszawa and Cracovia Krakow tend to score early?
Legia Warszawa have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Cracovia Krakow in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Legia Warszawa edge out Cracovia Krakow 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Legia Warszawa beat Cracovia Krakow 1-0 at Stadion Wojska Polskiego, Regular Season - 24, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 0.98 xG and Cracovia Krakow 0.97 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cracovia Krakow landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 0.92 / defence 1.03 against Cracovia Krakow attack 0.82 / defence 0.74, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 33% | Draw 34% | Cracovia Krakow 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 34%. The actual Legia Warszawa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 53%, Cracovia Krakow 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Legia Warszawa 1.39 PPG, Cracovia Krakow 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Legia Warszawa win broke the near-deadlock. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.