Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cracovia Krakow make the trip to Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera to face Pogon Szczecin in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Saturday 30 January 2027 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Pogon Szczecin (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Pogon Szczecin have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Pogon Szczecin have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Cracovia Krakow have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 2W 6D 2L. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Cracovia Krakow have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Cracovia Krakow have gone 0W 6D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Pogon Szczecin against 1.20 for Cracovia Krakow. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Pogon Szczecin have had the better of this match-up — 6 wins from 10 meetings, with Cracovia Krakow managing just 1 victories and 3 draws shared.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.6 goals per game across 10 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Aug 2026, ended 2–0 with Pogon Szczecin winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Pogon Szczecin and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 3.6 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Pogon Szczecin — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Cracovia Krakow — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pogon Szczecin 56% versus Cracovia Krakow 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 51% | Cracovia Krakow 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 1.31 xG and Cracovia Krakow 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.012 / defence 0.996 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.721 / defence 0.838. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.303. Data: 39 Pogon Szczecin games / 40 Cracovia Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 42% | Draw 35% | Cracovia Krakow 23%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 2.38 | Draw 2.86 | Cracovia Krakow 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pogon Szczecin are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.24 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Pogon Szczecin 50% | Cracovia Krakow 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Jan 2027, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 42% | Draw 35% | Cracovia Krakow 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 48% | xG Pogon Szczecin 1.31 / Cracovia Krakow 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.012 / def 0.996 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.721 / def 0.838 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Cracovia Krakow xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 30 January 2027 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 42% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 23% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Cracovia Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Cracovia Krakow?
Record (10 meetings): Pogon Szczecin 6W | Draws 3 | Cracovia Krakow 1W.
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Cracovia Krakow in?
Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-D-D. Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Pogon Szczecin's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Cracovia Krakow's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. Flip it around — Cracovia Krakow's attack (0.72x) against Pogon Szczecin's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 39/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 1-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
42%
2.38
35%
2.89
23%
4.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
2.24
0.94
Cracovia Krakow xG
2.38
42%
Home win
2.89
35%
Draw
4.27
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
16%
6.08
6%
15.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.0 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 0.94 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Pogon Szczecin's recent record stands at 15W 8D 16L from 39 games, a 1.36 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cracovia Krakow, meanwhile, have gone 10W 17D 12L across 39 games — 1.21 PPG, with L-D-W-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.36 PPG for Pogon Szczecin against 1.21 for Cracovia Krakow. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Pogon Szczecin have managed 9W 4D 6L from 19 games — 1.63 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cracovia Krakow's away record stands at 3W 8D 8L across 19 trips, a 0.89 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Cracovia Krakow are on 1.05 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Defensively: Cracovia Krakow in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Early Season
Cracovia Krakow
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Cracovia Krakow in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 15W 8D 16L in their last 39 games (1.36 PPG), while Cracovia Krakow have gone 10W 17D 12L in their last 39 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Cracovia Krakow away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 1.63 PPG; Cracovia Krakow away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Pogon Szczecin or Cracovia Krakow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pogon Szczecin have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Cracovia Krakow in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since March 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 3 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Pogon Szczecin won 1-5 on 23 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pogon Szczecin have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Cracovia Krakow — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Pogon Szczecin
3
Draws
1
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Cracovia Krakow?
From 10 meetings on record, Pogon Szczecin have won 6, Cracovia Krakow have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 3 August 2026, when Cracovia Krakow 0-2 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Pogon Szczecin and Cracovia Krakow?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Cracovia Krakow see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pogon Szczecin 63%, Cracovia Krakow 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Pogon Szczecin) and 47% (Cracovia Krakow). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 16% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cracovia Krakow in 47%; Cracovia Krakow in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pogon Szczecin play Cracovia Krakow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 63% of Pogon Szczecin's recent matches and 37% of Cracovia Krakow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Pogon Szczecin's matches and 47% of Cracovia Krakow's.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Cracovia Krakow tend to score early?
Pogon Szczecin have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Cracovia Krakow in 47% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.