Cracovia Krakow 0-0 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Cracovia Krakow at 42%, yet in-form Radomiak Radom provide a compelling counter-argument — this Cracovia Krakow vs Radomiak Radom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Cracovia Krakow and Radomiak Radom meet at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego in Ekstraklasa (matchday 32). This fixture gets under way on Monday 11 May 2026 at 19:00 UK time.

Current Form

Cracovia Krakow's record over their last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Last five: L D L D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Cracovia Krakow's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Radomiak Radom (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Radomiak Radom's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Radomiak Radom arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Cracovia Krakow's last 10 home games and Radomiak Radom's last 10 away games) — Cracovia Krakow have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Radomiak Radom in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 8 H2H matches in our data, Cracovia Krakow edge it 5 wins to 3, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 7 Nov 2025, ended Cracovia Krakow 0–3 Radomiak Radom — a Radomiak Radom win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading

Cracovia Krakow half-time and goal-timing data (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 53%; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).

Radomiak Radom half-time and goal-timing data (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 27 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cracovia Krakow 63% and Radomiak Radom 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cracovia Krakow 54% | Radomiak Radom 60%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Cracovia Krakow surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Radomiak Radom have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 1.35 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 0.914 / defence 1.087 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.869 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 1.425 / away 1.113. Data: built from Cracovia Krakow's last 65 games and Radomiak Radom's last 65.

Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 42% | Draw 30% | Radomiak Radom 28%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 2.38 | Draw 3.29 | Radomiak Radom 3.61. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Cracovia Krakow at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Radomiak Radom (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cracovia Krakow if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 57% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 8 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Cracovia Krakow 60% (last 10 home games) | Radomiak Radom 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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