Slask Wroclaw 0-0 Cracovia Krakow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Slask Wroclaw (39%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Slask Wroclaw face Cracovia Krakow.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 3 as Slask Wroclaw welcome Cracovia Krakow to Tarczynski Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 9 August 2026 at 12:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Slask Wroclaw have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Slask Wroclaw have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cracovia Krakow stand at 0W 7D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Cracovia Krakow have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Cracovia Krakow have posted 1W 6D 3L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Slask Wroclaw have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Slask Wroclaw have won 4, Cracovia Krakow 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2025, ended 4–2 with Slask Wroclaw winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slask Wroclaw 1.25 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slask Wroclaw attack 0.955 / defence 1.081 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.822 / defence 0.865. League average goals — home 1.514 / away 1.195. Data: 2 Slask Wroclaw games / 36 Cracovia Krakow games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Slask Wroclaw 39% | Draw 31% | Cracovia Krakow 30%. Fair-value odds: Slask Wroclaw 2.56 | Draw 3.23 | Cracovia Krakow 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Slask Wroclaw as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slask Wroclaw offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.31 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slask Wroclaw vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Tarczynski Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Aug 2026, 12:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slask Wroclaw 39% | Draw 31% | Cracovia Krakow 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Slask Wroclaw 1.25 / Cracovia Krakow 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Slask Wroclaw attack 0.955 / def 1.081 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.822 / def 0.865 | league avg home 1.514 / away 1.195 • Poisson stance: Slask Wroclaw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Slask Wroclaw xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Cracovia Krakow xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slask Wroclaw vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
Slask Wroclaw vs Cracovia Krakow kicked off at 12:45 on Sunday 9 August 2026 at Tarczynski Arena.
What was the final score in Slask Wroclaw vs Cracovia Krakow?
Slask Wroclaw 0 - 0 Cracovia Krakow.
Where is Slask Wroclaw vs Cracovia Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Tarczynski Arena.
What competition is Slask Wroclaw vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
Slask Wroclaw vs Cracovia Krakow is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Slask Wroclaw vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Slask Wroclaw a 39% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 30% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Slask Wroclaw the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slask Wroclaw vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Slask Wroclaw and Cracovia Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Slask Wroclaw vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slask Wroclaw and Cracovia Krakow?
Record (8 meetings): Slask Wroclaw 4W | Draws 2 | Cracovia Krakow 2W.
What form are Slask Wroclaw and Cracovia Krakow in?
Slask Wroclaw (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W. Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 0W-7D-3L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Slask Wroclaw's attack at 0.95x the league average against Cracovia Krakow's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cracovia Krakow's attack versus Slask Wroclaw's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slask Wroclaw Win
39%
2.56
31%
3.20
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Slask Wroclaw xG
Total xG
2.31
1.06
Cracovia Krakow xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
14%
7.40
9%
11.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 10.5 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.1 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.2 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slask Wroclaw vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Slask Wroclaw and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Slask Wroclaw and 1.06 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Slask Wroclaw vs Cracovia Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Slask Wroclaw's recent record stands at 1W 0D 1L from 2 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Slask Wroclaw, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cracovia Krakow, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 1L across 2 games — 0.50 PPG, with D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Slask Wroclaw by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cracovia Krakow heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Slask Wroclaw are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Cracovia Krakow are on 0.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Slask Wroclaw have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Cracovia Krakow in 0%.
Defensively: Cracovia Krakow in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slask Wroclaw
Early Season
Cracovia Krakow
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slask Wroclaw and Cracovia Krakow in coming into this match?
Slask Wroclaw have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 games (1.50 PPG), while Cracovia Krakow have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 (0.50 PPG).
Have Slask Wroclaw or Cracovia Krakow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slask Wroclaw have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Cracovia Krakow in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Slask Wroclaw and Cracovia Krakow runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 May 2024, when Slask Wroclaw won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Slask Wroclaw's record when hosting Cracovia Krakow specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Slask Wroclaw
3
Draws
2
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slask Wroclaw and Cracovia Krakow?
From 9 meetings on record, Slask Wroclaw have won 4, Cracovia Krakow have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Slask Wroclaw and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Slask Wroclaw 0-0 Cracovia Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Slask Wroclaw and Cracovia Krakow?
Slask Wroclaw have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slask Wroclaw home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slask Wroclaw play Cracovia Krakow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of Slask Wroclaw's recent matches and 0% of Cracovia Krakow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slask Wroclaw vs Cracovia Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of Slask Wroclaw's recent games and 0% of Cracovia Krakow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slask Wroclaw and Cracovia Krakow tend to score early?
Slask Wroclaw have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Cracovia Krakow in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Slask Wroclaw's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slask Wroclaw and Cracovia Krakow finished level at 0-0 at Tarczynski Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slask Wroclaw 1.25 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.06 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Slask Wroclaw fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Cracovia Krakow landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slask Wroclaw attack 0.95 / defence 1.08 against Cracovia Krakow attack 0.82 / defence 0.86, drawn from 2/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Slask Wroclaw 39% | Draw 31% | Cracovia Krakow 30%, with Slask Wroclaw to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slask Wroclaw 100%, Cracovia Krakow 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Slask Wroclaw arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Slask Wroclaw managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Cracovia Krakow conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.