Arka Gdynia 2-2 Legia Warszawa – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Arka Gdynia at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Arka Gdynia vs Legia Warszawa encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

Arka Gdynia welcome Legia Warszawa to Stadion Miejski w Gdyni in Ekstraklasa (matchday 20). Kick-off is Saturday 7 February 2026 at 13:45 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Arka Gdynia have gone 4W 1D 5L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Arka Gdynia's home record over their last 9 home games: 6W 2D 1L (2.22 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.22 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Arka Gdynia are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Legia Warszawa — last 10 games: 0W 4D 6L — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Legia Warszawa's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Arka Gdynia carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 67% of Arka Gdynia's games and 70% of Legia Warszawa's (from Arka Gdynia's last 9 home games and Legia Warszawa's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Arka Gdynia have won 0, Legia Warszawa 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 3 Aug 2025, ended Arka Gdynia 0–0 Legia Warszawa — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Arka Gdynia trading profile (last 18 games, 8 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.

Legia Warszawa trading profile (last 18 games, 8 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arka Gdynia 44% versus Legia Warszawa 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arka Gdynia 50% | Legia Warszawa 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Arka Gdynia 1.53 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arka Gdynia attack 0.926 / defence 1.074 | Legia Warszawa attack 0.886 / defence 1.059. League average goals — home 1.559 / away 1.233. Data: built from Arka Gdynia's last 18 games and Legia Warszawa's last 53.

Result probabilities: Arka Gdynia 45% | Draw 27% | Legia Warszawa 28%. Fair-value odds: Arka Gdynia 2.25 | Draw 3.67 | Legia Warszawa 3.54. Arka Gdynia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Arka Gdynia as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Arka Gdynia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Arka Gdynia 67% (last 9 home games) | Legia Warszawa 70% (last 10 away games).

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