Viking 1-1 Valerenga – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Viking at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Viking vs Valerenga encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Viking host Valerenga at SR-Bank Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 2 September 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Viking — All Games: 10W 0D 0L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 3.00 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Viking, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Viking at SR-Bank Arena this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.50 lags behind their overall 3.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at SR-Bank Arena this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Valerenga stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Valerenga, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Valerenga have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Viking carry the stronger recent momentum — 2.30 PPG ahead of their opponents on 3.00 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Viking, 2 for Valerenga and 2 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Jul 2023, ended 2–1 with Viking winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Viking in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Valerenga in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Viking 71% and Valerenga 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Viking 63% | Valerenga 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Viking 1.66 xG and Valerenga 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Viking attack 1.253 / defence 1.005 | Valerenga attack 0.978 / defence 0.777. League average goals — home 1.708 / away 1.307. Viking carry an above-average attack strength of 1.253 — their λ of 1.66 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Valerenga's defence strength of 0.777 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 49 Viking games / 49 Valerenga games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Viking 46% | Draw 24% | Valerenga 30%. Fair-value odds: Viking 2.17 | Draw 4.17 | Valerenga 3.33. Viking hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Viking at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Viking offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.95 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Viking 70% | Valerenga 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Viking vs Valerenga | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: SR-Bank Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Sep 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Viking 46% | Draw 24% | Valerenga 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Viking 1.66 / Valerenga 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Viking attack 1.253 / def 1.005 | Valerenga attack 0.978 / def 0.777 | league avg home 1.708 / away 1.307 • Poisson stance: Viking (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Viking xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Valerenga xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Viking vs Valerenga kick off?
Viking vs Valerenga kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 2 September 2023 at SR-Bank Arena.
What was the final score in Viking vs Valerenga?
Viking 1 - 1 Valerenga.
Where is Viking vs Valerenga being played?
The match is being played at SR-Bank Arena.
What competition is Viking vs Valerenga part of?
Viking vs Valerenga is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Viking vs Valerenga?
Our statistical model gives Viking a 46% chance of winning, Valerenga a 30% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Viking vs Valerenga?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Viking and Valerenga will score (BTTS).
Will Viking vs Valerenga have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Valerenga?
Record (6 meetings): Viking 2W | Draws 2 | Valerenga 2W.
What form are Viking and Valerenga in?
Viking (all comps): 10W-0D-0L in 10 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Valerenga (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Viking's attack at 1.25x the league average against Valerenga's defence at 0.78x — combine the two and it projects 1.66 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Valerenga's attack versus Viking's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
46%
2.16
24%
4.15
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Viking xG
Total xG
2.95
1.28
Valerenga xG
2.16
46%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
19%
5.28
Win to Nil
13%
7.81
6%
17.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.7 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.2 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.3 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Viking vs Valerenga?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Viking and Valerenga expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Viking and 1.28 for Valerenga, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Viking vs Valerenga?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Viking's recent record stands at 23W 10D 16L from 49 games, a 1.61 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Viking is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Valerenga, meanwhile, have gone 17W 10D 22L across 49 games — 1.24 PPG, with L-W-D-D-D in their last five. The sample for Valerenga is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Viking on 1.61 PPG, Valerenga on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Viking have managed 12W 6D 6L from 24 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Valerenga's away record stands at 7W 6D 11L across 24 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Viking come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Viking are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Valerenga are on 1.55 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Viking have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 49 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Viking
Blended
Valerenga
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Viking and Valerenga in coming into this match?
Viking have gone 23W 10D 16L in their last 49 games (1.61 PPG), while Valerenga have gone 17W 10D 22L in their last 49 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Viking at home or Valerenga away?
Viking's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Viking at home: 1.75 PPG; Valerenga away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Viking go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Nov 2025, when Viking won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Viking's record when hosting Valerenga specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Viking
3
Draws
3
Valerenga
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Valerenga?
From 10 meetings on record, Viking have won 4, Valerenga have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Viking and Valerenga last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Valerenga 0-1 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Viking and Valerenga?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Valerenga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Viking at 67%, Valerenga at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Viking) and 58% (Valerenga). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Viking home games / Valerenga away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Viking play Valerenga?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Viking's games and 67% of Valerenga's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Viking vs Valerenga usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Viking's matches and 58% of Valerenga's.
Do Viking and Valerenga tend to score early?
Viking have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Valerenga in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Viking and Valerenga share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking and Valerenga finished level at 1-1 at SR-Bank Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Viking 1.66 xG and Valerenga 1.28 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Viking attack 1.25 / defence 1.00 against Valerenga attack 0.98 / defence 0.78, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Viking 46% | Draw 24% | Valerenga 30%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Viking 63%, Valerenga 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Viking's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Valerenga's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Viking 1.61 PPG, Valerenga 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Viking (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.