Aalesund 1-1 Lillestrom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lillestrom at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Aalesund vs Lillestrom encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Lillestrom make the trip to Color Line Stadion to face Aalesund in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Sunday 3 September 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Aalesund's overall Eliteserien record this term: 2W 0D 8L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Aalesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Aalesund's home record at Color Line Stadion: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Lillestrom (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Lillestrom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lillestrom's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Lillestrom arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Aalesund, 2 for Lillestrom and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.7 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Jul 2023, ended 1–5 with Lillestrom winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Aalesund — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 41% of games.
Lillestrom — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aalesund 49% versus Lillestrom 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aalesund 63% | Lillestrom 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aalesund 1.07 xG and Lillestrom 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aalesund attack 0.672 / defence 1.122 | Lillestrom attack 1.005 / defence 0.935. League average goals — home 1.702 / away 1.304. Aalesund's attack strength of 0.672 is below the league average — the 1.07 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 50 Aalesund games / 49 Lillestrom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aalesund 28% | Draw 26% | Lillestrom 46%. Fair-value odds: Aalesund 3.57 | Draw 3.85 | Lillestrom 2.17. Lillestrom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lillestrom are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lillestrom if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Aalesund 30% | Lillestrom 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aalesund vs Lillestrom | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Color Line Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Sep 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aalesund 28% | Draw 26% | Lillestrom 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Aalesund 1.07 / Lillestrom 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Aalesund attack 0.672 / def 1.122 | Lillestrom attack 1.005 / def 0.935 | league avg home 1.702 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: Lillestrom (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Aalesund xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Lillestrom xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aalesund vs Lillestrom kick off?
Aalesund vs Lillestrom kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 3 September 2023 at Color Line Stadion.
What was the final score in Aalesund vs Lillestrom?
Aalesund 1 - 1 Lillestrom.
Where is Aalesund vs Lillestrom being played?
The match is being played at Color Line Stadion.
What competition is Aalesund vs Lillestrom part of?
Aalesund vs Lillestrom is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Aalesund vs Lillestrom?
Our statistical model gives Aalesund a 28% chance of winning, Lillestrom a 46% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Lillestrom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aalesund vs Lillestrom?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Aalesund and Lillestrom will score (BTTS).
Will Aalesund vs Lillestrom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aalesund and Lillestrom?
Record (3 meetings): Aalesund 1W | Draws 0 | Lillestrom 2W.
What form are Aalesund and Lillestrom in?
Aalesund (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Lillestrom (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Aalesund's attacking strength (0.67x league average) is weighed against Lillestrom's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.07. Flip it around — Lillestrom's attack (1.00x) against Aalesund's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from 50/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.0%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lillestrom Win
28%
3.64
26%
3.83
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Aalesund xG
Total xG
2.54
1.47
Lillestrom xG
3.64
28%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
23%
4.35
34%
2.91
Win to Nil
6%
15.83
16%
6.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 11.6 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.4 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.6 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aalesund vs Lillestrom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Aalesund and Lillestrom expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Aalesund and 1.47 for Lillestrom, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Aalesund vs Lillestrom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 49 outings, Aalesund have picked up 0.94 PPG on a 12W 10D 27L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Aalesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lillestrom's form line: 26W 7D 16L from 49 games, 1.73 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-W. The sample for Lillestrom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Lillestrom are the form team by 0.79 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Aalesund.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Aalesund have posted 1.25 PPG from 24 outings (8W 6D 10L).
On the road, Lillestrom have gone 11W 5D 8L from 24 away games — 1.58 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Aalesund are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Lillestrom are on 1.73 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lillestrom in 61%.
Last 49 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aalesund
Blended
Lillestrom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aalesund and Lillestrom in coming into this match?
Aalesund have gone 12W 10D 27L in their last 49 games (0.94 PPG), while Lillestrom have gone 26W 7D 16L in their last 49 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aalesund at home or Lillestrom away?
Lillestrom's away record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aalesund at home: 1.25 PPG; Lillestrom away: 1.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since April 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lillestrom won 5-1 on 19 Jul 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Aalesund have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Lillestrom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Aalesund
1
Draws
3
Lillestrom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aalesund and Lillestrom?
From 5 meetings on record, Aalesund have won 1, Lillestrom have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Aalesund and Lillestrom last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Aalesund 1-3 Lillestrom.
Who has won more matches between Aalesund and Lillestrom?
Lillestrom have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Aalesund see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Lillestrom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Aalesund 50%, Lillestrom 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Aalesund and 67% for Lillestrom. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Aalesund have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aalesund home games / Lillestrom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aalesund play Lillestrom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Aalesund's games and 62% of Lillestrom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Aalesund vs Lillestrom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Aalesund's matches and 67% of Lillestrom's.
Do Aalesund and Lillestrom tend to score early?
Aalesund have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Lillestrom in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Aalesund and Lillestrom share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aalesund and Lillestrom finished level at 1-1 at Color Line Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aalesund 1.07 xG and Lillestrom 1.47 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aalesund attack 0.67 / defence 1.12 against Lillestrom attack 1.00 / defence 0.94, drawn from 50/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aalesund 28% | Draw 26% | Lillestrom 46%, with Lillestrom to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aalesund 63%, Lillestrom 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aalesund's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Lillestrom's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lillestrom arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.