Haugesund 0-2 Viking – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Viking at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Haugesund vs Viking encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Viking travel to Haugesund Sparebank Arena to take on Haugesund. The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 September 2023, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Haugesund stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Haugesund Sparebank Arena, Haugesund have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Haugesund are significantly better at Haugesund Sparebank Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Viking have recorded 9W 1D 0L from 10 outings — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Viking, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Viking's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Viking — 2.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.80 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Haugesund have won 2, Viking 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Jul 2023, ended 0–2 with Viking winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Haugesund in-play and half-time data (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Viking in-play and half-time data (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Haugesund 60% and Viking 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haugesund 56% | Viking 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 1.15 xG and Viking 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 0.843 / defence 1.072 | Viking attack 1.201 / defence 0.783. League average goals — home 1.735 / away 1.315. Viking's defence strength of 0.783 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Viking have an above-average attack strength of 1.201 — the away xG of 1.69 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 51 Haugesund games / 50 Viking games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haugesund 26% | Draw 24% | Viking 50%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 3.85 | Draw 4.17 | Viking 2.00. Viking hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Viking as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Viking offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Haugesund 80% | Viking 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs Viking | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Haugesund Sparebank Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Sep 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 26% | Draw 24% | Viking 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG Haugesund 1.15 / Viking 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 0.843 / def 1.072 | Viking attack 1.201 / def 0.783 | league avg home 1.735 / away 1.315 • Poisson stance: Viking (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Viking xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haugesund vs Viking kick off?
Haugesund vs Viking kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 16 September 2023 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What was the final score in Haugesund vs Viking?
Haugesund 0 - 2 Viking.
Where is Haugesund vs Viking being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What competition is Haugesund vs Viking part of?
Haugesund vs Viking is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs Viking?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 26% chance of winning, Viking a 50% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Viking?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Haugesund and Viking will score (BTTS).
Will Haugesund vs Viking have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Viking?
Record (5 meetings): Haugesund 2W | Draws 1 | Viking 2W.
What form are Haugesund and Viking in?
Haugesund (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Viking (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Haugesund's attack at 0.84x the league average against Viking's defence at 0.78x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Viking's attack versus Haugesund's defence, projects 1.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
26%
3.88
24%
4.16
50%
1.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Haugesund xG
Total xG
2.84
1.69
Viking xG
3.88
26%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
1.99
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
18%
5.44
32%
3.14
Win to Nil
5%
21.09
16%
6.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 9.9 | 8.4 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.3 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs Viking?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Haugesund and Viking expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Haugesund and 1.69 for Viking, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs Viking?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Haugesund come into this having played 50 games, going 15W 13D 22L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-L. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Viking sit at 1.60 PPG from 50 outings (23W 11D 16L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Viking is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Viking carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of Haugesund — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Haugesund's home form reads 10W 6D 8L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Viking have taken 1.42 points per game from 24 outings (10W 4D 10L).
Goals in Recent Form
Haugesund are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Viking are on 1.84 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Haugesund have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Viking in 72%.
Last 50 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Blended
Viking
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haugesund and Viking in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 15W 13D 22L in their last 50 games (1.16 PPG), while Viking have gone 23W 11D 16L in their last 50 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haugesund at home or Viking away?
Haugesund's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haugesund at home: 1.50 PPG; Viking away: 1.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Viking have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Apr 2022, when Viking won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Haugesund's record when hosting Viking specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Haugesund
1
Draws
6
Viking
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Viking?
From 10 meetings on record, Haugesund have won 3, Viking have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and Viking last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2025, when Haugesund 1-4 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Haugesund and Viking?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Haugesund at 75%, Viking at 79%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Haugesund and 71% for Viking. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / Viking away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haugesund play Viking?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Haugesund's games and 79% of Viking's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Haugesund vs Viking usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Haugesund's matches and 71% of Viking's.
Do Haugesund and Viking tend to score early?
Haugesund have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Viking in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Viking cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Haugesund.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking beat Haugesund 0-2 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 1.15 xG and Viking 1.69 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Haugesund fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 0.84 / defence 1.07 against Viking attack 1.20 / defence 0.78, drawn from 51/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 26% | Draw 24% | Viking 50%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 56%, Viking 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Viking's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Viking arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.16. That form edge translated into the three points. Haugesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward. Viking (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.