Ham-Kam 4-4 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Bodo/Glimt at 54% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Ham-Kam face Bodo/Glimt.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Ham-Kam and Bodo/Glimt meet at Briskeby Arena in Eliteserien (matchday 21). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 3 September 2023 at 19:15 UK time.

Form

Ham-Kam (all games): 5W 0D 5L across their last 10 — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Ham-Kam's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Bodo/Glimt have collected 1.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W W L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Bodo/Glimt have gone 8W 0D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.40 exceeds their overall 1.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Ham-Kam against 1.90 for Bodo/Glimt. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Bodo/Glimt edge it 2 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 11 Jun 2023, ended Ham-Kam 0–3 Bodo/Glimt — a Bodo/Glimt win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Ham-Kam half-time and goal-timing data (last 49 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).

Bodo/Glimt half-time and goal-timing data (last 49 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 61%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ham-Kam 59% and Bodo/Glimt 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Ham-Kam 59% | Bodo/Glimt 74%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ham-Kam 1.27 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ham-Kam attack 0.843 / defence 1.005 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.521 / defence 0.885. League average goals — home 1.710 / away 1.295. Bodo/Glimt have an above-average attack rating of 1.521, which lifts their away xG to 1.98. Data: built from Ham-Kam's last 49 games and Bodo/Glimt's last 49.

Result probabilities: Ham-Kam 24% | Draw 22% | Bodo/Glimt 54%. Fair-value odds: Ham-Kam 4.09 | Draw 4.59 | Bodo/Glimt 1.86. Bodo/Glimt hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.27 / 1.98) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Bodo/Glimt at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bodo/Glimt if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 3.26 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Ham-Kam's last 10 home games and Bodo/Glimt's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Ham-Kam 30% (last 10 home games) | Bodo/Glimt 60% (last 10 away games).

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