Stromsgodset 2-1 Stabaek – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stromsgodset at 59% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stromsgodset vs Stabaek encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Stromsgodset welcome Stabaek to Marienlyst Stadion in Eliteserien (matchday 21). Kick-off is Sunday 3 September 2023 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Stromsgodset — last 10 games: 5W 0D 5L, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Stromsgodset have posted 4W 0D 6L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Stabaek stand at 0W 2D 8L — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
On the road, Stabaek have gone 1W 1D 7L in their last 9 away fixtures (0.44 PPG). Away from home they average 0.89 goals scored and 2.56 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Stromsgodset carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.30 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Stromsgodset have won 2, Stabaek 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 3 Jul 2023, ended Stromsgodset 1–0 Stabaek — a Stromsgodset win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Stromsgodset in-play and half-time data (last 18 games, 8 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Stabaek in-play and half-time data (last 18 games, 8 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stromsgodset 50% versus Stabaek 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stromsgodset 39% | Stabaek 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stromsgodset 1.94 xG and Stabaek 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stromsgodset attack 0.903 / defence 1.086 | Stabaek attack 0.711 / defence 1.261. League average goals — home 1.702 / away 1.304. Stabaek's defence rating of 1.261 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Stromsgodset's projected output up. Stabaek's attack rating of 0.711 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.01. Data: built from Stromsgodset's last 49 games and Stabaek's last 18.
Result probabilities: Stromsgodset 59% | Draw 22% | Stabaek 19%. Fair-value odds: Stromsgodset 1.69 | Draw 4.60 | Stabaek 5.22. The model has a clear lean to Stromsgodset (59%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stromsgodset at 59% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.95 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Stromsgodset's last 10 home games and Stabaek's last 9 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Stromsgodset 50% (last 10 home games) | Stabaek 56% (last 9 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stromsgodset vs Stabaek | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 21 | Venue: Marienlyst Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 3 September 2023 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stromsgodset 59% | Draw 22% | Stabaek 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Stromsgodset 1.94 / Stabaek 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Stromsgodset attack 0.903 / def 1.086 | Stabaek attack 0.711 / def 1.261 | league avg home 1.702 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: Stromsgodset (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Stromsgodset xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Stabaek xG
54%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Stromsgodset vs Stabaek FAQs
What time does Stromsgodset vs Stabaek kick off?
Stromsgodset vs Stabaek kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 3 September 2023 at Marienlyst Stadion.
What was the final score in Stromsgodset vs Stabaek?
Stromsgodset 2 - 1 Stabaek.
Where is Stromsgodset vs Stabaek being played?
The match is being played at Marienlyst Stadion.
What competition is Stromsgodset vs Stabaek part of?
Stromsgodset vs Stabaek is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 21) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stromsgodset vs Stabaek?
Our statistical model gives Stromsgodset a 59% chance of winning, Stabaek a 19% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Stromsgodset the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stromsgodset vs Stabaek?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Stromsgodset and Stabaek will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Stromsgodset vs Stabaek have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Stromsgodset's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Stabaek's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.94. The same calculation in reverse, Stabaek's attack versus Stromsgodset's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Stromsgodset's last 49 games and Stabaek's last 18 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stromsgodset Win
59%
1.69
22%
4.60
19%
5.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
Stromsgodset xG
Total xG
2.95
1.01
Stabaek xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.60
22%
Draw
5.22
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
14%
6.95
Win to Nil
22%
4.63
3%
36.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.2 | 10.3 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Stromsgodset vs Stabaek Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Stromsgodset vs Stabaek?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Stromsgodset and Stabaek expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Stromsgodset and 1.01 for Stabaek, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Stromsgodset vs Stabaek?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 18 outings, Stromsgodset have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 6W 2D 10L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Stabaek's form line: 4W 4D 10L from 18 games, 0.89 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stromsgodset on 1.11 PPG, Stabaek on 0.89. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Stromsgodset have posted 1.12 PPG from their last 8 home games (3W 0D 5L).
On the road, Stabaek have gone 1W 1D 6L from their last 8 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stromsgodset come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Stromsgodset are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Stabaek are on 0.94 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 18 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stromsgodset
Blended
Stabaek
Blended
Stromsgodset (Home) vs Stabaek (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Stromsgodset
Blended
Stabaek
Blended
❓ Stromsgodset vs Stabaek Form FAQs
What form are Stromsgodset and Stabaek in coming into this match?
Stromsgodset have gone 6W 2D 10L in their last 18 games (1.11 PPG), while Stabaek have gone 4W 4D 10L in their last 18 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stromsgodset at home or Stabaek away?
Stromsgodset's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stromsgodset at home: 1.12 PPG; Stabaek away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from July 2020. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent in our data was on 3 September 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Stromsgodset have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 22 Dec 2020, when Stabaek won Stromsgodset 0-4 Stabaek.
Stromsgodset's record when hosting Stabaek specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Stromsgodset
1
Draws
2
Stabaek
Recent Meetings
❓ Stromsgodset vs Stabaek H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Stabaek?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Stromsgodset have won 3, Stabaek have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Stromsgodset and Stabaek last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 September 2023: Stromsgodset 2-1 Stabaek.
Who has won more matches between Stromsgodset and Stabaek?
Stromsgodset have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Stabaek are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stromsgodset 50%, Stabaek 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Stromsgodset and 75% for Stabaek. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 62% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stabaek in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stromsgodset home games / Stabaek away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Stromsgodset vs Stabaek Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Stromsgodset and Stabaek matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Stromsgodset's games and 62% of Stabaek's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Stromsgodset and Stabaek matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Stromsgodset's matches and 75% of Stabaek's.
Do Stromsgodset and Stabaek matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 88% of Stromsgodset's recent matches and 75% of Stabaek's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Stromsgodset edge out Stabaek 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stromsgodset beat Stabaek 2-1 at Marienlyst Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stromsgodset 1.94 xG and Stabaek 1.01 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stromsgodset attack 0.90 / defence 1.09 against Stabaek attack 0.71 / defence 1.26, drawn from 49/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stromsgodset 59% | Draw 22% | Stabaek 19%, with Stromsgodset to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stromsgodset 39%, Stabaek 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stromsgodset's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Stabaek's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stromsgodset 1.11 PPG, Stabaek 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stromsgodset win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.