Haugesund 1-2 Molde – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Molde (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Haugesund face Molde.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 21 as Haugesund welcome Molde to Haugesund Sparebank Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 3 September 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Haugesund have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haugesund's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Haugesund Sparebank Arena this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Haugesund are significantly better at Haugesund Sparebank Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Molde stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Molde, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Molde have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Molde — 1.30 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
Molde have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 5 encounters against Haugesund's 0 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 25 Jun 2023, ended 0–1 with Molde winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Molde have won 5 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Haugesund trading profile (49 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Molde trading profile (49 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haugesund 59% versus Molde 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haugesund 55% | Molde 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 1.31 xG and Molde 1.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 0.879 / defence 1.068 | Molde attack 1.277 / defence 0.875. League average goals — home 1.702 / away 1.304. Molde have an above-average attack strength of 1.277 — the away xG of 1.78 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 50 Haugesund games / 49 Molde games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haugesund 28% | Draw 23% | Molde 49%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 3.57 | Draw 4.35 | Molde 2.04. Molde hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.31 / 1.78) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Molde at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Molde offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Haugesund 80% | Molde 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs Molde | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Haugesund Sparebank Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Sep 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 28% | Draw 23% | Molde 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 61% | xG Haugesund 1.31 / Molde 1.78 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 0.879 / def 1.068 | Molde attack 1.277 / def 0.875 | league avg home 1.702 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: Molde (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
1.78
Molde xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haugesund vs Molde kick off?
Haugesund vs Molde kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 3 September 2023 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What was the final score in Haugesund vs Molde?
Haugesund 1 - 2 Molde.
Where is Haugesund vs Molde being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What competition is Haugesund vs Molde part of?
Haugesund vs Molde is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs Molde?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 28% chance of winning, Molde a 49% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Molde the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Molde?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Haugesund and Molde will score (BTTS).
Will Haugesund vs Molde have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Molde?
Record (5 meetings): Haugesund 0W | Draws 0 | Molde 5W.
What form are Haugesund and Molde in?
Haugesund (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. Molde (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Haugesund's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Molde's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. The same calculation in reverse, Molde's attack versus Haugesund's defence, projects 1.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Molde Win
28%
3.54
23%
4.31
49%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Haugesund xG
Total xG
3.09
1.78
Molde xG
3.54
28%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
2.06
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
17%
5.92
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
5%
20.95
13%
7.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 8.1 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.6 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.9 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs Molde?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Haugesund and Molde expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Haugesund and 1.78 for Molde, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs Molde?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Haugesund come into this having played 49 games, going 15W 13D 21L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-D. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Molde sit at 2.29 PPG from 49 outings (35W 7D 7L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Molde is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Molde carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.11 PPG clear of Haugesund — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Haugesund's home form reads 10W 6D 7L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.57 PPG return.
Away from home, Molde have taken 2.22 points per game from 23 outings (16W 3D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Molde come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Haugesund are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Molde are on 2.29 scored and 0.94 conceded.
Defensively: Molde in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Blended
Molde
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haugesund and Molde in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 15W 13D 21L in their last 49 games (1.18 PPG), while Molde have gone 35W 7D 7L in their last 49 (2.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haugesund at home or Molde away?
Molde's away record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haugesund at home: 1.57 PPG; Molde away: 2.22 PPG.
Have Haugesund or Molde been keeping clean sheets recently?
Haugesund have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Molde in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Haugesund and Molde runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 9 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Molde have taken the last 10 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Oct 2024, when Molde won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Haugesund's record when hosting Molde specifically: 0W 0D 5L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Haugesund
0
Draws
10
Molde
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Molde?
From 10 meetings on record, Haugesund have won 0, Molde have won 10, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and Molde last play each other?
They last met on 9 November 2025, when Haugesund 0-2 Molde.
Who has won more matches between Haugesund and Molde?
Molde have the better head-to-head record, with 10 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Molde are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Haugesund at 74%, Molde at 56%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Haugesund and 65% for Molde. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Molde in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / Molde away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haugesund play Molde?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Haugesund's games and 56% of Molde's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Haugesund vs Molde usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Haugesund's matches and 65% of Molde's.
Do Haugesund and Molde tend to score early?
Haugesund have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Molde in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Molde edge out Haugesund 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Molde beat Haugesund 1-2 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 1.31 xG and Molde 1.78 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 0.88 / defence 1.07 against Molde attack 1.28 / defence 0.88, drawn from 50/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 28% | Draw 23% | Molde 49%, with Molde to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 55%, Molde 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (49 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Molde's trading profile (49 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Molde arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 1.18. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.