Viking vs Sandefjord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Viking at 68%, yet other data sources diverge — this Viking vs Sandefjord fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 22 as Viking welcome Sandefjord to SR-Bank Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 September 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Viking have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Viking, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Viking's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at SR-Bank Arena this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sandefjord stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sandefjord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sandefjord's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.90 PPG (Viking) versus 1.50 (Sandefjord). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Viking trading profile (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 88% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Sandefjord trading profile (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Viking 69% versus Sandefjord 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Viking 77% | Sandefjord 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Viking 2.97 xG and Sandefjord 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Viking attack 1.204 / defence 1.122 | Sandefjord attack 0.993 / defence 1.325. League average goals — home 1.864 / away 1.269. Sandefjord bring a strong defensive rating of 1.325 — this is suppressing Viking's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 Viking games / 48 Sandefjord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Viking 68% | Draw 17% | Sandefjord 14%. Fair-value odds: Viking 1.47 | Draw 5.88 | Sandefjord 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Viking (68%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 81% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 4.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 81% — a total xG of 4.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (2.97 / 1.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Viking at 68% — clear model lean.
The Poisson model projects 4.39 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 81% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 73% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Viking 90% | Sandefjord 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Viking vs Sandefjord | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: SR-Bank Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Viking 68% | Draw 17% | Sandefjord 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 81% | BTTS 73% | xG Viking 2.97 / Sandefjord 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Viking attack 1.204 / def 1.122 | Sandefjord attack 0.993 / def 1.325 | league avg home 1.864 / away 1.269 • Poisson stance: Viking (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.97
Viking xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Sandefjord xG
73%
BTTS
94%
Over 1.5
81%
Over 2.5
64%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Viking vs Sandefjord kick off?
Viking vs Sandefjord kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at SR-Bank Arena.
Where is Viking vs Sandefjord being played?
The match is being played at SR-Bank Arena.
What competition is Viking vs Sandefjord part of?
Viking vs Sandefjord is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Viking vs Sandefjord?
Our statistical model gives Viking a 68% chance of winning, Sandefjord a 14% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Viking vs Sandefjord?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Viking and Sandefjord will score (BTTS).
Will Viking vs Sandefjord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 81%.
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Sandefjord?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Viking and Sandefjord in?
Viking (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Sandefjord (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Viking's attack rating (1.20) and Sandefjord's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 2.97 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sandefjord's attack versus Viking's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 7.8%. Close behind: 3-1 (7.7%), 1-1 (5.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 21% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
68%
1.47
17%
5.74
14%
6.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.7%
Home win
4 – 1
5.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.97
Viking xG
Total xG
4.39
1.42
Sandefjord xG
1.47
68%
Home win
5.74
17%
Draw
6.91
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
81%
Over 2.5
1.23
19%
Under 2.5
5.26
64%
Over 3.5
1.56
36%
Under 3.5
2.78
45%
Over 4.5
2.22
55%
Under 4.5
1.82
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.37
27%
BTTS No
3.69
Clean Sheet
24%
4.12
5%
19.57
Win to Nil
17%
6.04
1%
135.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 3.7 | 5.2 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.8 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 7.7 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 4.0 | 5.7 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Viking vs Sandefjord?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.8%.
How many goals are Viking and Sandefjord expected to score?
The model projects 2.97 expected goals for Viking and 1.42 for Sandefjord, a combined total of 4.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Viking vs Sandefjord?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Viking come into this having played 48 games, going 21W 12D 15L for 1.56 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-W. The sample for Viking is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sandefjord sit at 1.23 PPG from 48 outings (16W 11D 21L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Sandefjord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Viking on 1.56 PPG, Sandefjord on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Viking's home form reads 13W 6D 4L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.96 PPG return.
Away from home, Sandefjord have taken 1.22 points per game from 23 outings (9W 1D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Viking come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Viking are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Sandefjord are on 1.17 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Viking have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 48 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Viking
Blended
Sandefjord
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Viking and Sandefjord in coming into this match?
Viking have gone 21W 12D 15L in their last 48 games (1.56 PPG), while Sandefjord have gone 16W 11D 21L in their last 48 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Viking at home or Sandefjord away?
Viking's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Viking at home: 1.96 PPG; Sandefjord away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Viking or Sandefjord been keeping clean sheets recently?
Viking have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Sandefjord in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Viking and Sandefjord runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Viking have taken the last 7 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 May 2024, when Viking won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Viking's record when hosting Sandefjord specifically: 5W 0D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Viking
1
Draws
1
Sandefjord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Sandefjord?
From 10 meetings on record, Viking have won 8, Sandefjord have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Viking and Sandefjord last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Viking 2-1 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between Viking and Sandefjord?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 26% of those situations.
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Viking 74%, Sandefjord 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Viking and 61% for Sandefjord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sandefjord in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Viking home games / Sandefjord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Viking play Sandefjord?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Viking's games and 52% of Sandefjord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Viking vs Sandefjord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Viking's matches and 61% of Sandefjord's.
Do Viking and Sandefjord tend to score early?
Viking have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Sandefjord in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Viking's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at SR-Bank Arena, Regular Season - 22, as Viking and Sandefjord drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Viking 2.97 xG and Sandefjord 1.42 xG, a combined 4.39. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Viking fell 3.0 short of their projected output. Sandefjord landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Viking attack 1.20 / defence 1.12 against Sandefjord attack 0.99 / defence 1.32, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Viking 68% | Draw 17% | Sandefjord 14%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 81%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 94% and missed. Over 3.5 was 64% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Viking 77%, Sandefjord 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Viking's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Sandefjord's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Viking 1.56 PPG, Sandefjord 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Viking (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line. Sandefjord (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.