Molde 3-0 Tromso – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Molde at 67%, yet other data sources diverge — this Molde vs Tromso fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Aker Stadion plays host to Molde versus Tromso in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Saturday 16 October 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Molde have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L W D D W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Molde, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Molde at Aker Stadion this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Aker Stadion. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Molde are significantly better at Aker Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Tromso's overall Eliteserien record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Tromso, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Tromso have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Molde goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 90% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 57%.
Tromso goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Molde 57% versus Tromso 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Molde 67% | Tromso 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Molde 2.75 xG and Tromso 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Molde attack 1.454 / defence 0.995 | Tromso attack 0.979 / defence 1.054. League average goals — home 1.795 / away 1.303. Molde carry an above-average attack strength of 1.454 — their λ of 2.75 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 51 Molde games / 21 Tromso games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Molde 67% | Draw 19% | Tromso 14%. Fair-value odds: Molde 1.49 | Draw 5.26 | Tromso 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Molde (67%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 4.02. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 4.02 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.75 / 1.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Molde are the pick at 67% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 4.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 76% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Molde 50% | Tromso 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Molde vs Tromso | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Aker Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Oct 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Molde 67% | Draw 19% | Tromso 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 69% | xG Molde 2.75 / Tromso 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Molde attack 1.454 / def 0.995 | Tromso attack 0.979 / def 1.054 | league avg home 1.795 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: Molde (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.75
Molde xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Tromso xG
69%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Molde vs Tromso kick off?
Molde vs Tromso kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 16 October 2021 at Aker Stadion.
What was the final score in Molde vs Tromso?
Molde 3 - 0 Tromso.
Where is Molde vs Tromso being played?
The match is being played at Aker Stadion.
What competition is Molde vs Tromso part of?
Molde vs Tromso is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Molde vs Tromso?
Our statistical model gives Molde a 67% chance of winning, Tromso a 14% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Molde the favourite.
Will both teams score in Molde vs Tromso?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Molde and Tromso will score (BTTS).
Will Molde vs Tromso have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between Molde and Tromso?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Molde and Tromso in?
Molde (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-D-W. Tromso (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Molde's attacking strength (1.45x league average) is weighed against Tromso's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.75. Flip it around — Tromso's attack (0.98x) against Molde's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 51/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.6%. Close behind: 3-1 (7.9%), 1-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Molde Win
67%
1.49
19%
5.35
14%
7.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.9%
Home win
2 – 0
6.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.75
Molde xG
Total xG
4.02
1.27
Tromso xG
1.49
67%
Home win
5.35
19%
Draw
7.13
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.46
31%
BTTS No
3.18
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
6%
15.64
Win to Nil
19%
5.28
1%
111.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 4.9 | 6.3 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.6 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 7.9 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 4.3 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Molde vs Tromso?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.6%.
How many goals are Molde and Tromso expected to score?
The model projects 2.75 expected goals for Molde and 1.27 for Tromso, a combined total of 4.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Molde vs Tromso?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 21 outings, Molde have picked up 1.95 PPG on a 12W 5D 4L record — L-W-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Molde is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Tromso's form line: 5W 7D 9L from 21 games, 1.05 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-W. The sample for Tromso is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Molde are the form team by 0.90 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Tromso.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Molde have posted 2.50 PPG from 10 outings (8W 1D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.95 PPG overall — Molde are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Tromso have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.05 PPG overall record — Tromso travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Molde come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Molde are averaging 2.43 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Tromso are on 1.24 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Tromso in 62%.
Last 21 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Molde
Blended
Tromso
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Molde and Tromso in coming into this match?
Molde have gone 12W 5D 4L in their last 21 games (1.95 PPG), while Tromso have gone 5W 7D 9L in their last 21 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Molde at home or Tromso away?
Molde's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Molde at home: 2.50 PPG; Tromso away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Molde or Tromso been keeping clean sheets recently?
Molde have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Tromso in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Molde won 5-1 on 10 Jul 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Molde have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Tromso — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Molde
0
Draws
4
Tromso
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Molde and Tromso?
From 10 meetings on record, Molde have won 6, Tromso have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Molde and Tromso last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Tromso 2-0 Molde.
Who has won more matches between Molde and Tromso?
Molde have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Molde are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 70% of the time.
Tromso are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Molde 50%, Tromso 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 90% for Molde and 60% for Tromso. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 70% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Molde keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Molde home games / Tromso away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Molde play Tromso?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Molde's games and 60% of Tromso's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Molde vs Tromso usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 90% of Molde's matches and 60% of Tromso's.
Do Molde and Tromso tend to score early?
Molde have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Tromso in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Molde run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Tromso.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Molde beat Tromso 3-0 at Aker Stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Molde 2.75 xG and Tromso 1.27 xG, a combined 4.02. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Tromso landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Molde attack 1.45 / defence 0.99 against Tromso attack 0.98 / defence 1.05, drawn from 51/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Molde 67% | Draw 19% | Tromso 14%, with Molde to win its most likely call at 67%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Molde 67%, Tromso 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Molde's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Tromso's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Molde arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Molde (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Tromso (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.