Rosenborg vs Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rosenborg at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rosenborg vs Bodo/Glimt fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bodo/Glimt make the trip to Lerkendal Stadion to face Rosenborg in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Saturday 18 September 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Form
Rosenborg (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rosenborg's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Lerkendal Stadion this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Rosenborg are significantly better at Lerkendal Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Bodo/Glimt have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D W W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bodo/Glimt away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Rosenborg, 1.60 for Bodo/Glimt — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Rosenborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Bodo/Glimt goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rosenborg 58% and Bodo/Glimt 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Rosenborg 67% | Bodo/Glimt 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 1.84 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 1.217 / defence 0.925 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.104 / defence 0.811. League average goals — home 1.864 / away 1.269. Data: 48 Rosenborg games / 48 Bodo/Glimt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 48% | Draw 27% | Bodo/Glimt 25%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Bodo/Glimt 4.00. Rosenborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.84 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rosenborg are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rosenborg if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.14 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Rosenborg 50% | Bodo/Glimt 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Bodo/Glimt | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 48% | Draw 27% | Bodo/Glimt 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Rosenborg 1.84 / Bodo/Glimt 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 1.217 / def 0.925 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.104 / def 0.811 | league avg home 1.864 / away 1.269 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Bodo/Glimt xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs Bodo/Glimt kick off?
Rosenborg vs Bodo/Glimt kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at Lerkendal Stadion.
Where is Rosenborg vs Bodo/Glimt being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Bodo/Glimt part of?
Rosenborg vs Bodo/Glimt is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 48% chance of winning, Bodo/Glimt a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Rosenborg and Bodo/Glimt will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs Bodo/Glimt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Bodo/Glimt?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rosenborg and Bodo/Glimt in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Rosenborg's attack rating (1.22) and Bodo/Glimt's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 1.84 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bodo/Glimt's attack (1.10x) against Rosenborg's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
48%
2.08
27%
3.71
25%
4.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
3.14
1.29
Bodo/Glimt xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
4.01
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
16%
6.30
Win to Nil
13%
7.58
4%
25.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 10.4 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Bodo/Glimt expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Rosenborg and 1.29 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Bodo/Glimt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 48 outings, Rosenborg have picked up 1.73 PPG on a 24W 11D 13L record — W-W-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bodo/Glimt's form line: 36W 8D 4L from 48 games, 2.42 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-D. The sample for Bodo/Glimt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bodo/Glimt are the form team by 0.69 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Rosenborg.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Rosenborg have posted 2.22 PPG from 23 outings (16W 3D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.73 PPG overall — Rosenborg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Bodo/Glimt have gone 15W 5D 3L from 23 away games — 2.17 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rosenborg are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Bodo/Glimt are on 2.92 scored and 1.04 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Bodo/Glimt in 62%.
Last 48 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Blended
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rosenborg and Bodo/Glimt in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 24W 11D 13L in their last 48 games (1.73 PPG), while Bodo/Glimt have gone 36W 8D 4L in their last 48 (2.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or Bodo/Glimt away?
Rosenborg's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 2.22 PPG; Bodo/Glimt away: 2.17 PPG.
Have Rosenborg or Bodo/Glimt been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rosenborg have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Bodo/Glimt in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 29 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bodo/Glimt won 4-0 on 24 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rosenborg have gone 1W 4D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Bodo/Glimt — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Rosenborg
5
Draws
3
Bodo/Glimt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Bodo/Glimt?
From 10 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 2, Bodo/Glimt have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Bodo/Glimt last play each other?
They last met on 29 May 2026, when Rosenborg 2-2 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and Bodo/Glimt?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 61% for Rosenborg, 70% for Bodo/Glimt — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Rosenborg and 74% for Bodo/Glimt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Bodo/Glimt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rosenborg play Bodo/Glimt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Rosenborg's games and 70% of Bodo/Glimt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rosenborg vs Bodo/Glimt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Rosenborg's matches and 74% of Bodo/Glimt's.
Do Rosenborg and Bodo/Glimt tend to score early?
Rosenborg have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Bodo/Glimt in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Rosenborg's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 22, as Rosenborg and Bodo/Glimt drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 1.84 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.29 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Rosenborg fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Bodo/Glimt landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 1.22 / defence 0.93 against Bodo/Glimt attack 1.10 / defence 0.81, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 48% | Draw 27% | Bodo/Glimt 25%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 67%, Bodo/Glimt 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.42 PPG against 1.73. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Rosenborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.48 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.39 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.