Lillestrom 0-0 Kristiansund BK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lillestrom at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lillestrom vs Kristiansund BK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 22 as Lillestrom welcome Kristiansund BK to Åråsen Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 16 October 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Lillestrom — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lillestrom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Åråsen Stadion, Lillestrom have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kristiansund BK stand at 6W 0D 4L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Kristiansund BK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kristiansund BK's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Lillestrom) versus 1.80 (Kristiansund BK). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Lillestrom, 1 for Kristiansund BK and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 30 May 2021, ended 0–1 with Kristiansund BK winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Lillestrom in-play and half-time data (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Kristiansund BK in-play and half-time data (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lillestrom 71% versus Kristiansund BK 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lillestrom 62% | Kristiansund BK 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lillestrom 1.41 xG and Kristiansund BK 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lillestrom attack 0.791 / defence 1.099 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.850 / defence 0.990. League average goals — home 1.795 / away 1.303. Lillestrom's attack strength of 0.791 is below the league average — the 1.41 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 21 Lillestrom games / 51 Kristiansund BK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lillestrom 39% | Draw 31% | Kristiansund BK 30%. Fair-value odds: Lillestrom 2.56 | Draw 3.23 | Kristiansund BK 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lillestrom as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lillestrom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: Lillestrom 60% | Kristiansund BK 40%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lillestrom vs Kristiansund BK | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Åråsen Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Oct 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lillestrom 39% | Draw 31% | Kristiansund BK 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 56% | xG Lillestrom 1.41 / Kristiansund BK 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Lillestrom attack 0.791 / def 1.099 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.850 / def 0.990 | league avg home 1.795 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: Lillestrom (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Lillestrom xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Kristiansund BK xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lillestrom vs Kristiansund BK kick off?
Lillestrom vs Kristiansund BK kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 16 October 2021 at Åråsen Stadion.
What was the final score in Lillestrom vs Kristiansund BK?
Lillestrom 0 - 0 Kristiansund BK.
Where is Lillestrom vs Kristiansund BK being played?
The match is being played at Åråsen Stadion.
What competition is Lillestrom vs Kristiansund BK part of?
Lillestrom vs Kristiansund BK is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Lillestrom vs Kristiansund BK?
Our statistical model gives Lillestrom a 39% chance of winning, Kristiansund BK a 30% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Lillestrom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lillestrom vs Kristiansund BK?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Lillestrom and Kristiansund BK will score (BTTS).
Will Lillestrom vs Kristiansund BK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Kristiansund BK?
Record (1 meetings): Lillestrom 0W | Draws 0 | Kristiansund BK 1W.
What form are Lillestrom and Kristiansund BK in?
Lillestrom (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Kristiansund BK (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Lillestrom's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Kristiansund BK's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. The same calculation in reverse, Kristiansund BK's attack versus Lillestrom's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 2-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lillestrom Win
39%
2.57
31%
3.22
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Lillestrom xG
Total xG
2.62
1.22
Kristiansund BK xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
25%
4.08
Win to Nil
12%
8.69
7%
13.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 8.8 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.4 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.7 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lillestrom vs Kristiansund BK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Lillestrom and Kristiansund BK expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Lillestrom and 1.22 for Kristiansund BK, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Lillestrom vs Kristiansund BK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lillestrom's recent record stands at 10W 4D 7L from 21 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Lillestrom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kristiansund BK, meanwhile, have gone 12W 2D 7L across 21 games — 1.81 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Kristiansund BK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lillestrom on 1.62 PPG, Kristiansund BK on 1.81. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Lillestrom have managed 5W 1D 4L from 10 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kristiansund BK's away record stands at 3W 1D 6L across 10 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.81 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Kristiansund BK's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lillestrom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lillestrom are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Kristiansund BK are on 1.38 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lillestrom have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Defensively: Kristiansund BK in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lillestrom
Blended
Kristiansund BK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lillestrom and Kristiansund BK in coming into this match?
Lillestrom have gone 10W 4D 7L in their last 21 games (1.62 PPG), while Kristiansund BK have gone 12W 2D 7L in their last 21 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lillestrom at home or Kristiansund BK away?
Lillestrom's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lillestrom at home: 1.60 PPG; Kristiansund BK away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Lillestrom or Kristiansund BK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lillestrom have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Kristiansund BK in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 20 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Kristiansund BK have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Lillestrom's record when hosting Kristiansund BK specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Lillestrom
2
Draws
4
Kristiansund BK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Kristiansund BK?
From 7 meetings on record, Lillestrom have won 1, Kristiansund BK have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lillestrom and Kristiansund BK last play each other?
They last met on 20 May 2026, when Lillestrom 1-2 Kristiansund BK.
Who has won more matches between Lillestrom and Kristiansund BK?
Kristiansund BK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lillestrom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Kristiansund BK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lillestrom 60%, Kristiansund BK 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Lillestrom) and 60% (Kristiansund BK). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kristiansund BK in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lillestrom home games / Kristiansund BK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lillestrom play Kristiansund BK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Lillestrom's recent matches and 40% of Kristiansund BK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lillestrom vs Kristiansund BK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Lillestrom's matches and 60% of Kristiansund BK's.
Do Lillestrom and Kristiansund BK tend to score early?
Lillestrom have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Kristiansund BK in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Lillestrom's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Åråsen Stadion, Regular Season - 22, as Lillestrom and Kristiansund BK drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lillestrom 1.41 xG and Kristiansund BK 1.22 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Lillestrom fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Kristiansund BK landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lillestrom attack 0.79 / defence 1.10 against Kristiansund BK attack 0.85 / defence 0.99, drawn from 21/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lillestrom 39% | Draw 31% | Kristiansund BK 30%, with Lillestrom to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lillestrom 62%, Kristiansund BK 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lillestrom's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lillestrom 1.62 PPG, Kristiansund BK 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lillestrom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Kristiansund BK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.