Mjondalen 1-1 Sandefjord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mjondalen at 48%, yet in-form Sandefjord provide a compelling counter-argument — this Mjondalen vs Sandefjord fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Mjondalen and Sandefjord meet at Consto Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 19 September 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Mjondalen (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Mjondalen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mjondalen at Consto Arena this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sandefjord's overall Eliteserien record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D L D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sandefjord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sandefjord away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Sandefjord are 0.90 PPG clear of Mjondalen in recent Eliteserien fixtures (1.50 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Mjondalen lead 1W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 May 2021, ended 3–0 with Mjondalen winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Mjondalen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Sandefjord goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjondalen 52% versus Sandefjord 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjondalen 48% | Sandefjord 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjondalen 1.93 xG and Sandefjord 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjondalen attack 0.784 / defence 1.120 | Sandefjord attack 0.977 / defence 1.314. League average goals — home 1.874 / away 1.293. Mjondalen's attack strength of 0.784 is below the league average — the 1.93 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Sandefjord bring a strong defensive rating of 1.314 — this is suppressing Mjondalen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 Mjondalen games / 48 Sandefjord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjondalen 48% | Draw 26% | Sandefjord 26%. Fair-value odds: Mjondalen 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Sandefjord 3.85. Mjondalen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.93 / 1.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Mjondalen as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sandefjord (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mjondalen if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.35 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Mjondalen 80% | Sandefjord 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjondalen vs Sandefjord | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Consto Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Sep 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjondalen 48% | Draw 26% | Sandefjord 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 67% | xG Mjondalen 1.93 / Sandefjord 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Mjondalen attack 0.784 / def 1.120 | Sandefjord attack 0.977 / def 1.314 | league avg home 1.874 / away 1.293 • Poisson stance: Mjondalen (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Mjondalen xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Sandefjord xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjondalen vs Sandefjord kick off?
Mjondalen vs Sandefjord kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 19 September 2021 at Consto Arena.
What was the final score in Mjondalen vs Sandefjord?
Mjondalen 1 - 1 Sandefjord.
Where is Mjondalen vs Sandefjord being played?
The match is being played at Consto Arena.
What competition is Mjondalen vs Sandefjord part of?
Mjondalen vs Sandefjord is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Mjondalen vs Sandefjord?
Our statistical model gives Mjondalen a 48% chance of winning, Sandefjord a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Mjondalen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjondalen vs Sandefjord?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Mjondalen and Sandefjord will score (BTTS).
Will Mjondalen vs Sandefjord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjondalen and Sandefjord?
Record (3 meetings): Mjondalen 1W | Draws 0 | Sandefjord 2W.
What form are Mjondalen and Sandefjord in?
Mjondalen (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Sandefjord (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Mjondalen's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Sandefjord's defensive record (1.31x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.93. Flip it around — Sandefjord's attack (0.98x) against Mjondalen's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjondalen Win
48%
2.09
26%
3.87
26%
3.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
6.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Mjondalen xG
Total xG
3.35
1.42
Sandefjord xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
3.79
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.00
Clean Sheet
24%
4.12
14%
6.90
Win to Nil
12%
8.63
4%
26.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 9.6 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.3 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 6.0 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjondalen vs Sandefjord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Mjondalen and Sandefjord expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Mjondalen and 1.42 for Sandefjord, a combined total of 3.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjondalen vs Sandefjord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 48 outings, Mjondalen have picked up 0.88 PPG on a 11W 9D 28L record — L-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Mjondalen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sandefjord's form line: 16W 11D 21L from 48 games, 1.23 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-W. The sample for Sandefjord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.88 PPG for Mjondalen against 1.23 for Sandefjord. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Mjondalen have posted 1.04 PPG from 23 outings (7W 3D 13L).
On the road, Sandefjord have gone 9W 1D 13L from 23 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Mjondalen are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Sandefjord are on 1.17 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjondalen
Blended
Sandefjord
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjondalen and Sandefjord in coming into this match?
Mjondalen have gone 11W 9D 28L in their last 48 games (0.88 PPG), while Sandefjord have gone 16W 11D 21L in their last 48 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjondalen at home or Sandefjord away?
Sandefjord's away record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjondalen at home: 1.04 PPG; Sandefjord away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Mjondalen or Sandefjord been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mjondalen have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Sandefjord in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 September 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mjondalen won 0-3 on 16 May 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mjondalen have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Sandefjord — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Mjondalen
1
Draws
2
Sandefjord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjondalen and Sandefjord?
From 4 meetings on record, Mjondalen have won 1, Sandefjord have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mjondalen and Sandefjord last play each other?
They last met on 19 September 2021, when Mjondalen 1-1 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between Mjondalen and Sandefjord?
Sandefjord have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mjondalen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjondalen 48%, Sandefjord 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Mjondalen) and 61% (Sandefjord). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Mjondalen keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Mjondalen have failed to score in 26% of games; Sandefjord in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjondalen home games / Sandefjord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjondalen play Sandefjord?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Mjondalen's recent matches and 52% of Sandefjord's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mjondalen vs Sandefjord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Mjondalen's matches and 61% of Sandefjord's.
Do Mjondalen and Sandefjord tend to score early?
Mjondalen have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Sandefjord in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mjondalen and Sandefjord share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjondalen and Sandefjord finished level at 1-1 at Consto Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjondalen 1.93 xG and Sandefjord 1.42 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Mjondalen fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjondalen attack 0.78 / defence 1.12 against Sandefjord attack 0.98 / defence 1.31, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjondalen 48% | Draw 26% | Sandefjord 26%, with Mjondalen to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjondalen 48%, Sandefjord 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjondalen's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Sandefjord's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mjondalen 0.88 PPG, Sandefjord 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sandefjord (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.