Viking 3-2 ODD Ballklubb – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Viking at 45%, yet in-form ODD Ballklubb provide a compelling counter-argument — this Viking vs ODD Ballklubb fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Viking host ODD Ballklubb at SR-Bank Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 16 May 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Viking have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at SR-Bank Arena, Viking have gone 1W 4D 5L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
ODD Ballklubb — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
ODD Ballklubb's away record: 3W 5D 2L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour ODD Ballklubb — 1.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Viking register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, ODD Ballklubb in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
ODD Ballklubb have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 6 encounters against Viking's 1 victories.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Nov 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. ODD Ballklubb have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Viking trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
ODD Ballklubb trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Viking 75% and ODD Ballklubb 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Viking 70% | ODD Ballklubb 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Viking 1.36 xG and ODD Ballklubb 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Viking attack 1.309 / defence 1.036 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.715 / defence 0.692. League average goals — home 1.497 / away 1.215. Viking carry an above-average attack strength of 1.309 — their λ of 1.36 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. ODD Ballklubb's defence strength of 0.692 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 36 Viking games / 37 ODD Ballklubb games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Viking 45% | Draw 33% | ODD Ballklubb 22%. Fair-value odds: Viking 2.22 | Draw 3.03 | ODD Ballklubb 4.55. Viking hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Viking as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form ODD Ballklubb (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Viking offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. This conflicts with form data: Viking 80% | ODD Ballklubb 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Viking vs ODD Ballklubb | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: SR-Bank Arena • Kick-off: Tuesday 16 May 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Viking 45% | Draw 33% | ODD Ballklubb 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 47% | xG Viking 1.36 / ODD Ballklubb 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Viking attack 1.309 / def 1.036 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.715 / def 0.692 | league avg home 1.497 / away 1.215 • Poisson stance: Viking (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Viking xG
Expected Goals
0.90
ODD Ballklubb xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Viking vs ODD Ballklubb kick off?
Viking vs ODD Ballklubb kicked off at 17:00 on Tuesday 16 May 2023 at SR-Bank Arena.
What was the final score in Viking vs ODD Ballklubb?
Viking 3 - 2 ODD Ballklubb.
Where is Viking vs ODD Ballklubb being played?
The match is being played at SR-Bank Arena.
What competition is Viking vs ODD Ballklubb part of?
Viking vs ODD Ballklubb is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Viking vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our statistical model gives Viking a 45% chance of winning, ODD Ballklubb a 22% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Viking vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Viking and ODD Ballklubb will score (BTTS).
Will Viking vs ODD Ballklubb have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and ODD Ballklubb?
Record (6 meetings): Viking 1W | Draws 1 | ODD Ballklubb 4W.
What form are Viking and ODD Ballklubb in?
Viking (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Viking's attack at 1.31x the league average against ODD Ballklubb's defence at 0.69x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, ODD Ballklubb's attack versus Viking's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
45%
2.23
33%
3.04
22%
4.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Viking xG
Total xG
2.26
0.90
ODD Ballklubb xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
4.48
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
18%
5.49
6%
17.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 9.4 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 12.8 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Viking vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Viking and ODD Ballklubb expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Viking and 0.90 for ODD Ballklubb, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Viking vs ODD Ballklubb?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Viking come into this having played 60 games, going 26W 14D 20L for 1.53 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-D.
On the other side, ODD Ballklubb sit at 1.30 PPG from 60 outings (21W 15D 24L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Viking on 1.53 PPG, ODD Ballklubb on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Viking's home form reads 14W 8D 8L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, ODD Ballklubb have taken 1.13 points per game from 30 outings (8W 10D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Viking come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Viking are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; ODD Ballklubb are on 1.45 scored and 1.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Viking have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; ODD Ballklubb in 62%.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Viking
Current Season
ODD Ballklubb
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Viking and ODD Ballklubb in coming into this match?
Viking have gone 26W 14D 20L in their last 60 games (1.53 PPG), while ODD Ballklubb have gone 21W 15D 24L in their last 60 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Viking at home or ODD Ballklubb away?
Viking's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Viking at home: 1.67 PPG; ODD Ballklubb away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 October 2024, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Nov 2020, when ODD Ballklubb won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Viking's record when hosting ODD Ballklubb specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Viking
4
Draws
4
ODD Ballklubb
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and ODD Ballklubb?
From 10 meetings on record, Viking have won 2, ODD Ballklubb have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Viking and ODD Ballklubb last play each other?
They last met on 20 October 2024, when Viking 3-3 ODD Ballklubb.
Who has won more matches between Viking and ODD Ballklubb?
ODD Ballklubb have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Viking 77%, ODD Ballklubb 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Viking) and 50% (ODD Ballklubb). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: ODD Ballklubb in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Viking home games / ODD Ballklubb away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Viking play ODD Ballklubb?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of Viking's games and 50% of ODD Ballklubb's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Viking vs ODD Ballklubb usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Viking's matches and 50% of ODD Ballklubb's.
Do Viking and ODD Ballklubb tend to score early?
Viking have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, ODD Ballklubb in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Viking edge out ODD Ballklubb 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking beat ODD Ballklubb 3-2 at SR-Bank Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Viking 1.36 xG and ODD Ballklubb 0.90 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Viking beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. ODD Ballklubb outscored their 0.90 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Viking attack 1.31 / defence 1.04 against ODD Ballklubb attack 0.71 / defence 0.69, drawn from 36/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Viking 45% | Draw 33% | ODD Ballklubb 22%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Viking 70%, ODD Ballklubb 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Viking's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Viking 1.53 PPG, ODD Ballklubb 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Viking win broke the near-deadlock. Viking (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.83 average — above their attacking norm. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.