ODD Ballklubb 1-1 Stromsgodset – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates ODD Ballklubb at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this ODD Ballklubb vs Stromsgodset encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Stromsgodset make the trip to Skagerak Arena to face ODD Ballklubb in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Monday 29 May 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
ODD Ballklubb (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
ODD Ballklubb's home record at Skagerak Arena: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Stromsgodset have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Stromsgodset have posted 0W 2D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.70 in ODD Ballklubb's favour (2.10 vs 0.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 6 meetings, Stromsgodset have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to ODD Ballklubb's 1, with 1 draws in the mix.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2022, ended 5–1 with ODD Ballklubb winning.
It is worth noting that Stromsgodset have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
ODD Ballklubb half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Stromsgodset half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ODD Ballklubb 62% versus Stromsgodset 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ODD Ballklubb 62% | Stromsgodset 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ODD Ballklubb 1.52 xG and Stromsgodset 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ODD Ballklubb attack 0.786 / defence 0.761 | Stromsgodset attack 1.010 / defence 1.216. League average goals — home 1.589 / away 1.187. ODD Ballklubb's attack strength of 0.786 is below the league average — the 1.52 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Stromsgodset bring a strong defensive rating of 1.216 — this is suppressing ODD Ballklubb's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. ODD Ballklubb's defence rating of 0.761 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 38 ODD Ballklubb games / 37 Stromsgodset games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 50% | Draw 29% | Stromsgodset 21%. Fair-value odds: ODD Ballklubb 2.00 | Draw 3.45 | Stromsgodset 4.76. ODD Ballklubb hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
Stromsgodset lead the H2H ledger, but ODD Ballklubb carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is ODD Ballklubb at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on ODD Ballklubb if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.43 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.3 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. This conflicts with form data: ODD Ballklubb 80% | Stromsgodset 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ODD Ballklubb vs Stromsgodset | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Skagerak Arena • Kick-off: Monday 29 May 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 50% | Draw 29% | Stromsgodset 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG ODD Ballklubb 1.52 / Stromsgodset 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: ODD Ballklubb attack 0.786 / def 0.761 | Stromsgodset attack 1.010 / def 1.216 | league avg home 1.589 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: ODD Ballklubb (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
ODD Ballklubb xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Stromsgodset xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ODD Ballklubb vs Stromsgodset kick off?
ODD Ballklubb vs Stromsgodset kicked off at 16:00 on Monday 29 May 2023 at Skagerak Arena.
What was the final score in ODD Ballklubb vs Stromsgodset?
ODD Ballklubb 1 - 1 Stromsgodset.
Where is ODD Ballklubb vs Stromsgodset being played?
The match is being played at Skagerak Arena.
What competition is ODD Ballklubb vs Stromsgodset part of?
ODD Ballklubb vs Stromsgodset is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win ODD Ballklubb vs Stromsgodset?
Our statistical model gives ODD Ballklubb a 50% chance of winning, Stromsgodset a 21% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making ODD Ballklubb the favourite.
Will both teams score in ODD Ballklubb vs Stromsgodset?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both ODD Ballklubb and Stromsgodset will score (BTTS).
Will ODD Ballklubb vs Stromsgodset have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Stromsgodset?
Record (6 meetings): ODD Ballklubb 1W | Draws 1 | Stromsgodset 4W.
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Stromsgodset in?
ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Stromsgodset (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates ODD Ballklubb's attack at 0.79x the league average against Stromsgodset's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Stromsgodset's attack (1.01x) against ODD Ballklubb's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 38/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
ODD Ballklubb Win
50%
2.00
29%
3.47
21%
4.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
ODD Ballklubb xG
Total xG
2.43
0.91
Stromsgodset xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
4.71
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
22%
4.56
Win to Nil
20%
4.99
5%
21.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.4 | 12.2 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.3 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ODD Ballklubb vs Stromsgodset?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are ODD Ballklubb and Stromsgodset expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for ODD Ballklubb and 0.91 for Stromsgodset, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for ODD Ballklubb vs Stromsgodset?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
ODD Ballklubb's recent record stands at 21W 15D 24L from 60 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-D in the last five.
Stromsgodset, meanwhile, have gone 18W 15D 27L across 60 games — 1.15 PPG, with L-D-L-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for ODD Ballklubb against 1.15 for Stromsgodset. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, ODD Ballklubb have managed 13W 5D 12L from 30 games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stromsgodset's away record stands at 3W 9D 18L across 30 trips, a 0.60 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.15 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Stromsgodset's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, ODD Ballklubb come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
ODD Ballklubb are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Stromsgodset are on 1.45 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: ODD Ballklubb have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ODD Ballklubb
Current Season
Stromsgodset
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Stromsgodset in coming into this match?
ODD Ballklubb have gone 21W 15D 24L in their last 60 games (1.30 PPG), while Stromsgodset have gone 18W 15D 27L in their last 60 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ODD Ballklubb at home or Stromsgodset away?
ODD Ballklubb's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ODD Ballklubb at home: 1.47 PPG; Stromsgodset away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since June 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 July 2024, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: ODD Ballklubb won 5-1 on 6 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, ODD Ballklubb have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Stromsgodset — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
ODD Ballklubb
3
Draws
5
Stromsgodset
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Stromsgodset?
From 10 meetings on record, ODD Ballklubb have won 2, Stromsgodset have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did ODD Ballklubb and Stromsgodset last play each other?
They last met on 28 July 2024, when ODD Ballklubb 2-0 Stromsgodset.
Who has won more matches between ODD Ballklubb and Stromsgodset?
Stromsgodset have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — ODD Ballklubb 73%, Stromsgodset 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for ODD Ballklubb and 53% for Stromsgodset. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stromsgodset in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ODD Ballklubb home games / Stromsgodset away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ODD Ballklubb play Stromsgodset?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of ODD Ballklubb's games and 43% of Stromsgodset's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is ODD Ballklubb vs Stromsgodset usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of ODD Ballklubb's matches and 53% of Stromsgodset's.
Do ODD Ballklubb and Stromsgodset tend to score early?
ODD Ballklubb have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Stromsgodset in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
ODD Ballklubb and Stromsgodset share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ODD Ballklubb and Stromsgodset finished level at 1-1 at Skagerak Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ODD Ballklubb 1.52 xG and Stromsgodset 0.91 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ODD Ballklubb attack 0.79 / defence 0.76 against Stromsgodset attack 1.01 / defence 1.22, drawn from 38/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ODD Ballklubb 50% | Draw 29% | Stromsgodset 21%, with ODD Ballklubb to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ODD Ballklubb 62%, Stromsgodset 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Stromsgodset's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — ODD Ballklubb 1.30 PPG, Stromsgodset 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.03 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.