Valerenga 3-0 Ham-Kam – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Valerenga at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Valerenga vs Ham-Kam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Ham-Kam travel to Intility Arena to take on Valerenga. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 16 May 2023, 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Valerenga have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Valerenga at Intility Arena this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Intility Arena. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Valerenga are significantly better at Intility Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ham-Kam stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Ham-Kam away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Valerenga) versus 0.80 (Ham-Kam). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Valerenga, 0 for Ham-Kam and 2 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Valerenga trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Ham-Kam trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Valerenga 53% and Ham-Kam 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valerenga 67% | Ham-Kam 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valerenga 2.82 xG and Ham-Kam 2.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valerenga attack 1.126 / defence 1.406 | Ham-Kam attack 1.261 / defence 1.674. League average goals — home 1.497 / away 1.215. Ham-Kam bring a strong defensive rating of 1.674 — this is suppressing Valerenga's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Ham-Kam have an above-average attack strength of 1.261 — the away xG of 2.15 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 36 Valerenga games / 36 Ham-Kam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valerenga 52% | Draw 19% | Ham-Kam 29%. Fair-value odds: Valerenga 1.92 | Draw 5.26 | Ham-Kam 3.45. Valerenga hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (19%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 87% | BTTS probability 84% | Total xG 4.97. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 87% — a total xG of 4.97 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 84% reflects that both xG figures (2.82 / 2.15) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Valerenga as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.97 combined xG gives a 87% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 84% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Valerenga 40% | Ham-Kam 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valerenga vs Ham-Kam | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Intility Arena • Kick-off: Tuesday 16 May 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valerenga 52% | Draw 19% | Ham-Kam 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 87% | BTTS 84% | xG Valerenga 2.82 / Ham-Kam 2.15 • Poisson strength factors: Valerenga attack 1.126 / def 1.406 | Ham-Kam attack 1.261 / def 1.674 | league avg home 1.497 / away 1.215 • Poisson stance: Valerenga (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.82
Valerenga xG
Expected Goals
2.15
Ham-Kam xG
84%
BTTS
97%
Over 1.5
87%
Over 2.5
73%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valerenga vs Ham-Kam kick off?
Valerenga vs Ham-Kam kicked off at 17:00 on Tuesday 16 May 2023 at Intility Arena.
What was the final score in Valerenga vs Ham-Kam?
Valerenga 3 - 0 Ham-Kam.
Where is Valerenga vs Ham-Kam being played?
The match is being played at Intility Arena.
What competition is Valerenga vs Ham-Kam part of?
Valerenga vs Ham-Kam is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Valerenga vs Ham-Kam?
Our statistical model gives Valerenga a 52% chance of winning, Ham-Kam a 29% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Valerenga the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valerenga vs Ham-Kam?
Our model estimates a 84% probability that both Valerenga and Ham-Kam will score (BTTS).
Will Valerenga vs Ham-Kam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 87%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valerenga and Ham-Kam?
Record (2 meetings): Valerenga 0W | Draws 2 | Ham-Kam 0W.
What form are Valerenga and Ham-Kam in?
Valerenga (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. Ham-Kam (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Valerenga's attack rating (1.13) and Ham-Kam's defence rating (1.67), the model arrives at 2.82 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ham-Kam's attack versus Valerenga's defence, projects 2.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 6.4%. Close behind: 3-2 (6.0%), 2-1 (5.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 18% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Valerenga Win
52%
1.93
19%
5.16
29%
3.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 2
6.4%
Draw
Most likely
3 – 2
6.0%
Home win
2 – 1
5.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.82
Valerenga xG
Total xG
4.97
2.15
Ham-Kam xG
1.93
52%
Home win
5.16
19%
Draw
3.46
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
96%
Over 1.5
1.04
4%
Under 1.5
25.00
87%
Over 2.5
1.15
13%
Under 2.5
7.69
73%
Over 3.5
1.37
27%
Under 3.5
3.70
56%
Over 4.5
1.79
44%
Under 4.5
2.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
84%
BTTS Yes
1.19
16%
BTTS No
6.24
Clean Sheet
12%
8.63
6%
16.78
Win to Nil
6%
16.67
2%
58.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 1.9 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 5.9 | 6.4 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 5.6 | 6.0 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 1.0 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valerenga vs Ham-Kam?
Our Poisson model rates 2-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 6.4%.
How many goals are Valerenga and Ham-Kam expected to score?
The model projects 2.82 expected goals for Valerenga and 2.15 for Ham-Kam, a combined total of 4.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Valerenga vs Ham-Kam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Valerenga's recent record stands at 13W 5D 12L from 30 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with L-L-D-D-L in the last five.
Ham-Kam, meanwhile, have gone 6W 13D 11L across 30 games — 1.03 PPG, with D-D-W-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Valerenga by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ham-Kam heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Valerenga have managed 9W 2D 4L from 15 games — 1.93 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.47 PPG overall — Valerenga are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Ham-Kam's away record stands at 2W 7D 6L across 15 trips, a 0.87 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valerenga come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Valerenga are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Ham-Kam are on 1.10 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ham-Kam in 70%.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valerenga
Current Season
Ham-Kam
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valerenga and Ham-Kam in coming into this match?
Valerenga have gone 13W 5D 12L in their last 30 games (1.47 PPG), while Ham-Kam have gone 6W 13D 11L in their last 30 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valerenga at home or Ham-Kam away?
Valerenga's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valerenga at home: 1.93 PPG; Ham-Kam away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Valerenga and Ham-Kam runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 31 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ham-Kam have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 May 2023, when Valerenga won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Valerenga's record when hosting Ham-Kam specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Valerenga
3
Draws
3
Ham-Kam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valerenga and Ham-Kam?
From 8 meetings on record, Valerenga have won 2, Ham-Kam have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Valerenga and Ham-Kam last play each other?
They last met on 31 July 2026, when Valerenga 0-3 Ham-Kam.
Who has won more matches between Valerenga and Ham-Kam?
Ham-Kam have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Valerenga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valerenga 40%, Ham-Kam 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Valerenga and 60% for Ham-Kam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Valerenga keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valerenga home games / Ham-Kam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valerenga play Ham-Kam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Valerenga's games and 80% of Ham-Kam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Valerenga vs Ham-Kam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Valerenga's matches and 60% of Ham-Kam's.
Do Valerenga and Ham-Kam tend to score early?
Valerenga have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Ham-Kam in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Valerenga run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Ham-Kam.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valerenga beat Ham-Kam 3-0 at Intility Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valerenga 2.82 xG and Ham-Kam 2.15 xG, a combined 4.97. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Ham-Kam landed 2.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valerenga attack 1.13 / defence 1.41 against Ham-Kam attack 1.26 / defence 1.67, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valerenga 52% | Draw 19% | Ham-Kam 29%, with Valerenga to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 87%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 97% and landed. Over 3.5 was 73% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 84% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valerenga 67%, Ham-Kam 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valerenga's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Ham-Kam's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Valerenga arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Valerenga (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.07 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.