ODD Ballklubb 0-1 Lillestrom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates ODD Ballklubb at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this ODD Ballklubb vs Lillestrom encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Lillestrom travel to Skagerak Arena to take on ODD Ballklubb. The game is scheduled for Friday 12 May 2023, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, ODD Ballklubb have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
ODD Ballklubb's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Skagerak Arena this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Lillestrom — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Lillestrom have posted 5W 0D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
ODD Ballklubb carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for ODD Ballklubb, 3 for Lillestrom and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2022, ended 2–0 with ODD Ballklubb winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
ODD Ballklubb in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Lillestrom in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — ODD Ballklubb 62% and Lillestrom 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ODD Ballklubb 62% | Lillestrom 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ODD Ballklubb 1.63 xG and Lillestrom 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ODD Ballklubb attack 0.948 / defence 0.748 | Lillestrom attack 1.159 / defence 1.132. League average goals — home 1.518 / away 1.170. ODD Ballklubb's defence rating of 0.748 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 36 ODD Ballklubb games / 35 Lillestrom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 49% | Draw 31% | Lillestrom 20%. Fair-value odds: ODD Ballklubb 2.04 | Draw 3.23 | Lillestrom 5.00. ODD Ballklubb hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Lillestrom lead the H2H ledger, but ODD Ballklubb carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, ODD Ballklubb are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on ODD Ballklubb offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.64 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: ODD Ballklubb 80% | Lillestrom 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ODD Ballklubb vs Lillestrom | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Skagerak Arena • Kick-off: Friday 12 May 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 49% | Draw 31% | Lillestrom 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG ODD Ballklubb 1.63 / Lillestrom 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: ODD Ballklubb attack 0.948 / def 0.748 | Lillestrom attack 1.159 / def 1.132 | league avg home 1.518 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: ODD Ballklubb (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
ODD Ballklubb xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Lillestrom xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ODD Ballklubb vs Lillestrom kick off?
ODD Ballklubb vs Lillestrom kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 12 May 2023 at Skagerak Arena.
What was the final score in ODD Ballklubb vs Lillestrom?
ODD Ballklubb 0 - 1 Lillestrom.
Where is ODD Ballklubb vs Lillestrom being played?
The match is being played at Skagerak Arena.
What competition is ODD Ballklubb vs Lillestrom part of?
ODD Ballklubb vs Lillestrom is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win ODD Ballklubb vs Lillestrom?
Our statistical model gives ODD Ballklubb a 49% chance of winning, Lillestrom a 20% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making ODD Ballklubb the favourite.
Will both teams score in ODD Ballklubb vs Lillestrom?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both ODD Ballklubb and Lillestrom will score (BTTS).
Will ODD Ballklubb vs Lillestrom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Lillestrom?
Record (4 meetings): ODD Ballklubb 1W | Draws 0 | Lillestrom 3W.
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Lillestrom in?
ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Lillestrom (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates ODD Ballklubb's attack at 0.95x the league average against Lillestrom's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.63 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lillestrom's attack versus ODD Ballklubb's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
ODD Ballklubb Win
49%
2.05
31%
3.25
20%
4.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
ODD Ballklubb xG
Total xG
2.64
1.01
Lillestrom xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
4.88
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
20%
5.10
Win to Nil
18%
5.66
4%
24.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.2 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 11.7 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.6 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ODD Ballklubb vs Lillestrom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are ODD Ballklubb and Lillestrom expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for ODD Ballklubb and 1.01 for Lillestrom, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for ODD Ballklubb vs Lillestrom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, ODD Ballklubb have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 21W 15D 24L record — L-W-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Lillestrom's form line: 30W 12D 18L from 60 games, 1.70 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: ODD Ballklubb on 1.30 PPG, Lillestrom on 1.70. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, ODD Ballklubb have posted 1.47 PPG from 30 outings (13W 5D 12L).
On the road, Lillestrom have gone 13W 7D 10L from 30 away games — 1.53 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
ODD Ballklubb are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Lillestrom are on 1.63 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: ODD Ballklubb have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ODD Ballklubb
Current Season
Lillestrom
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Lillestrom in coming into this match?
ODD Ballklubb have gone 21W 15D 24L in their last 60 games (1.30 PPG), while Lillestrom have gone 30W 12D 18L in their last 60 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ODD Ballklubb at home or Lillestrom away?
Lillestrom's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ODD Ballklubb at home: 1.47 PPG; Lillestrom away: 1.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 October 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Oct 2024, when Lillestrom won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
ODD Ballklubb's record when hosting Lillestrom specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
ODD Ballklubb
1
Draws
5
Lillestrom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Lillestrom?
From 8 meetings on record, ODD Ballklubb have won 2, Lillestrom have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did ODD Ballklubb and Lillestrom last play each other?
They last met on 27 October 2024, when Lillestrom 3-0 ODD Ballklubb.
Who has won more matches between ODD Ballklubb and Lillestrom?
Lillestrom have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Lillestrom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — ODD Ballklubb at 73%, Lillestrom at 73%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for ODD Ballklubb and 73% for Lillestrom. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ODD Ballklubb home games / Lillestrom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ODD Ballklubb play Lillestrom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of ODD Ballklubb's games and 73% of Lillestrom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is ODD Ballklubb vs Lillestrom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of ODD Ballklubb's matches and 73% of Lillestrom's.
Do ODD Ballklubb and Lillestrom tend to score early?
ODD Ballklubb have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Lillestrom in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lillestrom defy the odds to beat ODD Ballklubb 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lillestrom beat ODD Ballklubb 0-1 at Skagerak Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ODD Ballklubb 1.63 xG and Lillestrom 1.01 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. ODD Ballklubb fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ODD Ballklubb attack 0.95 / defence 0.75 against Lillestrom attack 1.16 / defence 1.13, drawn from 36/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ODD Ballklubb 49% | Draw 31% | Lillestrom 20%, with ODD Ballklubb to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Lillestrom win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ODD Ballklubb 62%, Lillestrom 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lillestrom's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — ODD Ballklubb 1.30 PPG, Lillestrom 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lillestrom win broke the near-deadlock. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward. Lillestrom (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.