Sandefjord 1-2 Viking – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sandefjord at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sandefjord vs Viking fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 6 as Sandefjord welcome Viking to Release Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 May 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sandefjord stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sandefjord at Release Arena this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Sandefjord are significantly better at Release Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Viking have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Viking have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.50 PPG (Sandefjord) versus 0.60 (Viking). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Sandefjord, 1 for Viking and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Aug 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Sandefjord in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Viking in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sandefjord 62% and Viking 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sandefjord 73% | Viking 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 1.70 xG and Viking 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 1.110 / defence 0.888 | Viking attack 0.915 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 1.488 / away 1.170. Data: 35 Sandefjord games / 35 Viking games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandefjord 53% | Draw 28% | Viking 19%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 1.89 | Draw 3.57 | Viking 5.26. Sandefjord hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sandefjord as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sandefjord offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 4.1 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sandefjord 80% | Viking 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandefjord vs Viking | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Release Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 13 May 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandefjord 53% | Draw 28% | Viking 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Sandefjord 1.70 / Viking 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Sandefjord attack 1.110 / def 0.888 | Viking attack 0.915 / def 1.026 | league avg home 1.488 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Sandefjord (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Sandefjord xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Viking xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandefjord vs Viking kick off?
Sandefjord vs Viking kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 13 May 2023 at Release Arena.
What was the final score in Sandefjord vs Viking?
Sandefjord 1 - 2 Viking.
Where is Sandefjord vs Viking being played?
The match is being played at Release Arena.
What competition is Sandefjord vs Viking part of?
Sandefjord vs Viking is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sandefjord vs Viking?
Our statistical model gives Sandefjord a 53% chance of winning, Viking a 19% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sandefjord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs Viking?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Sandefjord and Viking will score (BTTS).
Will Sandefjord vs Viking have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Viking?
Record (3 meetings): Sandefjord 1W | Draws 1 | Viking 1W.
What form are Sandefjord and Viking in?
Sandefjord (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Viking (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sandefjord's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Viking's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.70. The same calculation in reverse, Viking's attack versus Sandefjord's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 2-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandefjord Win
53%
1.90
28%
3.54
19%
5.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Sandefjord xG
Total xG
2.65
0.95
Viking xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
5.28
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
18%
5.45
Win to Nil
20%
4.90
3%
28.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.0 | 11.4 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.7 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandefjord vs Viking?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Sandefjord and Viking expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Sandefjord and 0.95 for Viking, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandefjord vs Viking?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sandefjord come into this having played 60 games, going 16W 12D 32L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-L.
On the other side, Viking sit at 1.53 PPG from 60 outings (26W 14D 20L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-D across their last five.
Viking carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.53 PPG clear of Sandefjord — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Sandefjord's home form reads 8W 11D 11L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Viking have taken 1.40 points per game from 30 outings (12W 6D 12L).
Goals in Recent Form
Sandefjord are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.97 conceded per game recently; Viking are on 1.80 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sandefjord have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Viking in 75%.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandefjord
Current Season
Viking
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandefjord and Viking in coming into this match?
Sandefjord have gone 16W 12D 32L in their last 60 games (1.00 PPG), while Viking have gone 26W 14D 20L in their last 60 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandefjord at home or Viking away?
Viking's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandefjord at home: 1.17 PPG; Viking away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Viking have taken the last 7 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 May 2024, when Viking won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sandefjord's record when hosting Viking specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Sandefjord
1
Draws
8
Viking
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Viking?
From 10 meetings on record, Sandefjord have won 1, Viking have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sandefjord and Viking last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Viking 2-1 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between Sandefjord and Viking?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Sandefjord at 70%, Viking at 73%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Sandefjord and 73% for Viking. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandefjord home games / Viking away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandefjord play Viking?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Sandefjord's games and 73% of Viking's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sandefjord vs Viking usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Sandefjord's matches and 73% of Viking's.
Do Sandefjord and Viking tend to score early?
Sandefjord have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Viking in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Viking defy the odds to beat Sandefjord 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking beat Sandefjord 1-2 at Release Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 1.70 xG and Viking 0.95 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Viking outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 1.11 / defence 0.89 against Viking attack 0.92 / defence 1.03, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 53% | Draw 28% | Viking 19%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Viking win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 72% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 73%, Viking 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandefjord's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Viking's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Viking arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Viking (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.