Brann 4-1 Stabaek – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Brann at 56% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Brann face Stabaek.

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Full Analysis

Brann Stadion plays host to Brann versus Stabaek in Eliteserien (matchday 7). Kick-off: Tuesday 16 May 2023 at 18:00 UK time.

Form

Brann (all games): 1W 6D 3L across their last 10 — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Brann have posted 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Stabaek have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Stabaek's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Brann, 0.80 for Stabaek — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Brann's last 10 home games and Stabaek's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 80% of Brann's games and 70% of Stabaek's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 17 Oct 2021, ended Brann 1–1 Stabaek — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Brann goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 67%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.

Stabaek goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Brann 70% and Stabaek 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Brann 60% | Stabaek 73%). Note also that Stabaek surrender HT leads in 43% of cases while Brann recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Brann 1.91 xG and Stabaek 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brann attack 1.005 / defence 0.876 | Stabaek attack 0.961 / defence 1.271. League average goals — home 1.497 / away 1.215. Stabaek's defence rating of 1.271 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Brann's projected output up. Data: built from Brann's last 7 games and Stabaek's last 6.

Result probabilities: Brann 56% | Draw 26% | Stabaek 18%. Fair-value odds: Brann 1.78 | Draw 3.82 | Stabaek 5.63. The model has a clear lean to Brann (56%) — a 30pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Brann as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.93 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Brann's last 10 home games and Stabaek's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Brann 80% (last 10 home games) | Stabaek 70% (last 10 away games).

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