Aalesund 2-1 Viking – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Viking (45%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Aalesund face Viking.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Color Line Stadion plays host to Aalesund versus Viking in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Sunday 2 October 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Aalesund's overall Eliteserien record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Aalesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Aalesund have posted 2W 4D 4L at Color Line Stadion — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Viking have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L L W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Viking, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Viking's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Viking are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Aalesund register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Viking in 90%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Aalesund 0W, Viking 2W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2022, ended 0–1 with Viking winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Aalesund — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Viking — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 91% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Aalesund 56% and Viking 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aalesund 61% | Viking 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aalesund 1.37 xG and Viking 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aalesund attack 0.661 / defence 1.105 | Viking attack 1.098 / defence 1.143. League average goals — home 1.809 / away 1.384. Aalesund's attack strength of 0.661 is below the league average — the 1.37 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 23 Aalesund games / 53 Viking games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aalesund 31% | Draw 24% | Viking 45%. Fair-value odds: Aalesund 3.23 | Draw 4.17 | Viking 2.22. Viking hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.37 / 1.68) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Viking are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Viking if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.05 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Aalesund 70% | Viking 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aalesund vs Viking | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Color Line Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Oct 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aalesund 31% | Draw 24% | Viking 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Aalesund 1.37 / Viking 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Aalesund attack 0.661 / def 1.105 | Viking attack 1.098 / def 1.143 | league avg home 1.809 / away 1.384 • Poisson stance: Viking (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Aalesund xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Viking xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aalesund vs Viking kick off?
Aalesund vs Viking kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 2 October 2022 at Color Line Stadion.
What was the final score in Aalesund vs Viking?
Aalesund 2 - 1 Viking.
Where is Aalesund vs Viking being played?
The match is being played at Color Line Stadion.
What competition is Aalesund vs Viking part of?
Aalesund vs Viking is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Aalesund vs Viking?
Our statistical model gives Aalesund a 31% chance of winning, Viking a 45% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aalesund vs Viking?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Aalesund and Viking will score (BTTS).
Will Aalesund vs Viking have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aalesund and Viking?
Record (3 meetings): Aalesund 0W | Draws 1 | Viking 2W.
What form are Aalesund and Viking in?
Aalesund (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Viking (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Aalesund's attacking strength (0.66x league average) is weighed against Viking's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. Flip it around — Viking's attack (1.10x) against Aalesund's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.68.
These ratings are built from 23/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
31%
3.19
24%
4.21
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Aalesund xG
Total xG
3.05
1.68
Viking xG
3.19
31%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
19%
5.37
25%
3.92
Win to Nil
6%
17.14
11%
8.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 8.0 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 10.9 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.5 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aalesund vs Viking?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Aalesund and Viking expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Aalesund and 1.68 for Viking, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Aalesund vs Viking?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Aalesund's recent record stands at 6W 7D 10L from 23 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Aalesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Viking, meanwhile, have gone 9W 6D 8L across 23 games — 1.43 PPG, with L-L-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Viking is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.09 PPG for Aalesund against 1.43 for Viking. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Aalesund have managed 3W 4D 4L from 11 games — 1.18 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Viking's away record stands at 3W 2D 6L across 11 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.43 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Viking's season.
Attack vs Defence
Aalesund are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Viking are on 1.70 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Viking in 74%.
Last 23 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aalesund
Blended
Viking
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aalesund and Viking in coming into this match?
Aalesund have gone 6W 7D 10L in their last 23 games (1.09 PPG), while Viking have gone 9W 6D 8L in their last 23 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aalesund at home or Viking away?
Aalesund's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aalesund at home: 1.18 PPG; Viking away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Viking won 0-4 on 26 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Aalesund have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Viking — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Aalesund
2
Draws
4
Viking
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aalesund and Viking?
From 7 meetings on record, Aalesund have won 1, Viking have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Aalesund and Viking last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Aalesund 1-1 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Aalesund and Viking?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Aalesund see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 64% for Aalesund, 91% for Viking — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Aalesund and 82% for Viking. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aalesund home games / Viking away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aalesund play Viking?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Aalesund's games and 91% of Viking's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Aalesund vs Viking usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Aalesund's matches and 82% of Viking's.
Do Aalesund and Viking tend to score early?
Aalesund have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Viking in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Aalesund defy the odds to beat Viking 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aalesund beat Viking 2-1 at Color Line Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aalesund 1.37 xG and Viking 1.68 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aalesund attack 0.66 / defence 1.10 against Viking attack 1.10 / defence 1.14, drawn from 23/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aalesund 31% | Draw 24% | Viking 45%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Aalesund win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aalesund 61%, Viking 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aalesund's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Viking's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Aalesund 1.09 PPG, Viking 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Aalesund win broke the near-deadlock. Aalesund (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.