Lillestrom vs Mjondalen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lillestrom at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lillestrom vs Mjondalen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lillestrom host Mjondalen at Åråsen Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 23 October 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lillestrom stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lillestrom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lillestrom's home record at Åråsen Stadion: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Mjondalen have recorded 0W 3D 7L from 10 outings — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Mjondalen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Mjondalen have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Lillestrom are in the better shape of the two on current Eliteserien data — 1.10 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Lillestrom have won 2, Mjondalen 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2021, ended 2–1 with Lillestrom winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Lillestrom in-play and half-time data (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Mjondalen in-play and half-time data (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lillestrom 68% and Mjondalen 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lillestrom 59% | Mjondalen 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lillestrom 1.67 xG and Mjondalen 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lillestrom attack 0.702 / defence 1.035 | Mjondalen attack 0.746 / defence 1.344. League average goals — home 1.776 / away 1.250. Lillestrom's attack strength of 0.702 is below the league average — the 1.67 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Mjondalen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.344 — this is suppressing Lillestrom's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Lillestrom games / 52 Mjondalen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lillestrom 52% | Draw 29% | Mjondalen 19%. Fair-value odds: Lillestrom 1.92 | Draw 3.45 | Mjondalen 5.26. Lillestrom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lillestrom at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lillestrom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lillestrom 50% | Mjondalen 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lillestrom vs Mjondalen | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Åråsen Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Oct 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lillestrom 52% | Draw 29% | Mjondalen 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Lillestrom 1.67 / Mjondalen 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Lillestrom attack 0.702 / def 1.035 | Mjondalen attack 0.746 / def 1.344 | league avg home 1.776 / away 1.250 • Poisson stance: Lillestrom (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Lillestrom xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Mjondalen xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lillestrom vs Mjondalen kick off?
Lillestrom vs Mjondalen kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 23 October 2021 at Åråsen Stadion.
Where is Lillestrom vs Mjondalen being played?
The match is being played at Åråsen Stadion.
What competition is Lillestrom vs Mjondalen part of?
Lillestrom vs Mjondalen is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Lillestrom vs Mjondalen?
Our statistical model gives Lillestrom a 52% chance of winning, Mjondalen a 19% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Lillestrom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lillestrom vs Mjondalen?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Lillestrom and Mjondalen will score (BTTS).
Will Lillestrom vs Mjondalen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Mjondalen?
Record (2 meetings): Lillestrom 2W | Draws 0 | Mjondalen 0W.
What form are Lillestrom and Mjondalen in?
Lillestrom (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Mjondalen (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Lillestrom's attacking strength (0.70x league average) is weighed against Mjondalen's defensive record (1.34x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.67. The same calculation in reverse, Mjondalen's attack versus Lillestrom's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 2-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lillestrom Win
52%
1.94
29%
3.44
19%
5.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Lillestrom xG
Total xG
2.64
0.96
Mjondalen xG
1.94
52%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
5.19
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
19%
5.33
Win to Nil
20%
5.08
4%
27.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 6.9 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 12.0 | 11.5 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.7 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lillestrom vs Mjondalen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Lillestrom and Mjondalen expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Lillestrom and 0.96 for Mjondalen, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Lillestrom vs Mjondalen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lillestrom's recent record stands at 10W 5D 7L from 22 games, a 1.59 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Lillestrom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mjondalen, meanwhile, have gone 2W 9D 11L across 22 games — 0.68 PPG, with L-D-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Mjondalen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lillestrom by 0.91 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Mjondalen heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Lillestrom have managed 5W 2D 4L from 11 games — 1.55 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mjondalen's away record stands at 1W 4D 6L across 11 trips, a 0.64 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lillestrom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lillestrom are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Mjondalen are on 1.05 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lillestrom have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Mjondalen in 73%.
Last 22 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lillestrom
Blended
Mjondalen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lillestrom and Mjondalen in coming into this match?
Lillestrom have gone 10W 5D 7L in their last 22 games (1.59 PPG), while Mjondalen have gone 2W 9D 11L in their last 22 (0.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lillestrom at home or Mjondalen away?
Lillestrom's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lillestrom at home: 1.55 PPG; Mjondalen away: 0.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 August 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Lillestrom
0
Draws
0
Mjondalen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Mjondalen?
From 2 meetings on record, Lillestrom have won 2, Mjondalen have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lillestrom and Mjondalen last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2021, when Mjondalen 1-2 Lillestrom.
Who has won more matches between Lillestrom and Mjondalen?
Lillestrom have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lillestrom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Mjondalen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lillestrom 54%, Mjondalen 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Lillestrom) and 54% (Mjondalen).
On the defensive side: Lillestrom keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Mjondalen in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lillestrom home games / Mjondalen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lillestrom play Mjondalen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Lillestrom's games and 64% of Mjondalen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lillestrom vs Mjondalen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Lillestrom's recent games and 54% of Mjondalen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lillestrom and Mjondalen tend to score early?
Lillestrom have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Mjondalen in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Lillestrom's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lillestrom and Mjondalen finished level at 0-0 at Åråsen Stadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lillestrom 1.67 xG and Mjondalen 0.96 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Lillestrom fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Mjondalen landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lillestrom attack 0.70 / defence 1.03 against Mjondalen attack 0.75 / defence 1.34, drawn from 22/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lillestrom 52% | Draw 29% | Mjondalen 19%, with Lillestrom to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lillestrom 59%, Mjondalen 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lillestrom's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Mjondalen's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Lillestrom arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 0.68. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lillestrom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Mjondalen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.