Kristiansund BK 1-3 Sarpsborg 08 FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kristiansund BK at 73% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kristiansund BK vs Sarpsborg 08 FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 23 as Kristiansund BK welcome Sarpsborg 08 FF to Kristiansund Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 24 October 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Kristiansund BK have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Kristiansund BK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kristiansund BK's form when playing at home: 9W 1D 0L across 10 games at Kristiansund Stadion this term (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Kristiansund Stadion. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Kristiansund BK are significantly better at Kristiansund Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sarpsborg 08 FF stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Sarpsborg 08 FF have posted 2W 0D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
Kristiansund BK are in the better shape of the two on current Eliteserien data — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Kristiansund BK, 0 for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 27 May 2021, ended 1–0 with Kristiansund BK winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Kristiansund BK in-play and half-time data (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 63% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Sarpsborg 08 FF in-play and half-time data (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kristiansund BK 64% versus Sarpsborg 08 FF 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kristiansund BK 58% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kristiansund BK 2.46 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kristiansund BK attack 1.101 / defence 0.772 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.775 / defence 1.242. League average goals — home 1.795 / away 1.254. Sarpsborg 08 FF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.242 — this is suppressing Kristiansund BK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Kristiansund BK's defence rating of 0.772 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 52 Kristiansund BK games / 52 Sarpsborg 08 FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 73% | Draw 19% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 8%. Fair-value odds: Kristiansund BK 1.37 | Draw 5.26 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 12.50. The model has a clear lean to Kristiansund BK (73%) — a 65pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kristiansund BK at 73% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.21 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kristiansund BK 40% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kristiansund BK vs Sarpsborg 08 FF | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Kristiansund Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Oct 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 73% | Draw 19% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 50% | xG Kristiansund BK 2.46 / Sarpsborg 08 FF 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Kristiansund BK attack 1.101 / def 0.772 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.775 / def 1.242 | league avg home 1.795 / away 1.254 • Poisson stance: Kristiansund BK (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.46
Kristiansund BK xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
50%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kristiansund BK vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kick off?
Kristiansund BK vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 24 October 2021 at Kristiansund Stadion.
What was the final score in Kristiansund BK vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Kristiansund BK 1 - 3 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Where is Kristiansund BK vs Sarpsborg 08 FF being played?
The match is being played at Kristiansund Stadion.
What competition is Kristiansund BK vs Sarpsborg 08 FF part of?
Kristiansund BK vs Sarpsborg 08 FF is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Kristiansund BK vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our statistical model gives Kristiansund BK a 73% chance of winning, Sarpsborg 08 FF a 8% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Kristiansund BK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kristiansund BK vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Kristiansund BK and Sarpsborg 08 FF will score (BTTS).
Will Kristiansund BK vs Sarpsborg 08 FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Record (2 meetings): Kristiansund BK 1W | Draws 1 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 0W.
What form are Kristiansund BK and Sarpsborg 08 FF in?
Kristiansund BK (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Kristiansund BK's attack at 1.10x the league average against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 2.46 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack versus Kristiansund BK's defence, projects 0.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kristiansund BK Win
73%
1.36
19%
5.32
8%
12.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
3 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.46
Kristiansund BK xG
Total xG
3.21
0.75
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
1.36
73%
Home win
5.32
19%
Draw
12.71
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
47%
2.12
9%
11.66
Win to Nil
35%
2.89
1%
148.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.0 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.2 | 9.2 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 10.0 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 6.1 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kristiansund BK vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Kristiansund BK and Sarpsborg 08 FF expected to score?
The model projects 2.46 expected goals for Kristiansund BK and 0.75 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Kristiansund BK vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Kristiansund BK's recent record stands at 24W 15D 13L from 52 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Kristiansund BK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sarpsborg 08 FF, meanwhile, have gone 14W 13D 25L across 52 games — 1.06 PPG, with L-L-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Sarpsborg 08 FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Kristiansund BK by 0.61 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sarpsborg 08 FF heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Kristiansund BK have managed 16W 5D 5L from 26 games — 2.04 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's away record stands at 4W 6D 16L across 26 trips, a 0.69 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kristiansund BK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Kristiansund BK are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Sarpsborg 08 FF are on 1.08 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kristiansund BK have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 52 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kristiansund BK
Blended
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kristiansund BK and Sarpsborg 08 FF in coming into this match?
Kristiansund BK have gone 24W 15D 13L in their last 52 games (1.67 PPG), while Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 14W 13D 25L in their last 52 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kristiansund BK at home or Sarpsborg 08 FF away?
Kristiansund BK's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kristiansund BK at home: 2.04 PPG; Sarpsborg 08 FF away: 0.69 PPG.
Have Kristiansund BK or Sarpsborg 08 FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kristiansund BK have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kristiansund BK and Sarpsborg 08 FF runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Kristiansund BK's record when hosting Sarpsborg 08 FF specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Kristiansund BK
4
Draws
2
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Kristiansund BK have won 4, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Kristiansund BK and Sarpsborg 08 FF last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Kristiansund BK 0-0 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Who has won more matches between Kristiansund BK and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Kristiansund BK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kristiansund BK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kristiansund BK 62%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Kristiansund BK) and 50% (Sarpsborg 08 FF).
On the defensive side: Kristiansund BK keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Sarpsborg 08 FF in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kristiansund BK home games / Sarpsborg 08 FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kristiansund BK play Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Kristiansund BK's games and 54% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kristiansund BK vs Sarpsborg 08 FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Kristiansund BK's recent games and 50% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kristiansund BK and Sarpsborg 08 FF tend to score early?
Kristiansund BK have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sarpsborg 08 FF cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Kristiansund BK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sarpsborg 08 FF beat Kristiansund BK 1-3 at Kristiansund Stadion, Regular Season - 23, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kristiansund BK 2.46 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 0.75 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Kristiansund BK fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Sarpsborg 08 FF outscored their 0.75 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kristiansund BK attack 1.10 / defence 0.77 against Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.78 / defence 1.24, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kristiansund BK 73% | Draw 19% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 8%, with Kristiansund BK to win its most likely call at 73%. Instead the game produced a Sarpsborg 08 FF win, an outcome the model had rated at just 8% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kristiansund BK 58%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Kristiansund BK arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.06. Form was overturned, with Sarpsborg 08 FF winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Kristiansund BK (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.