Stabaek vs Valerenga – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Valerenga at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stabaek vs Valerenga encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 23 as Stabaek welcome Valerenga to Nadderud Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 25 September 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Stabaek have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: W L D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.40 conceded. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Stabaek, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stabaek at Nadderud Stadion this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Valerenga — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D W L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Valerenga, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valerenga away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Valerenga's 1.40 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Stabaek's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Stabaek register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Valerenga in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Stabaek, 2 for Valerenga and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2021, ended 1–3 with Valerenga winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Stabaek in-play and half-time data (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Valerenga in-play and half-time data (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Stabaek 58% and Valerenga 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stabaek 60% | Valerenga 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stabaek 1.46 xG and Valerenga 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stabaek attack 0.774 / defence 1.284 | Valerenga attack 0.919 / defence 1.031. League average goals — home 1.834 / away 1.314. Stabaek's attack strength of 0.774 is below the league average — the 1.46 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 48 Stabaek games / 49 Valerenga games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stabaek 33% | Draw 29% | Valerenga 37%. Fair-value odds: Stabaek 3.03 | Draw 3.45 | Valerenga 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.46 / 1.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Valerenga as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Valerenga offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.01 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Stabaek 60% | Valerenga 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stabaek vs Valerenga | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Nadderud Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Sep 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stabaek 33% | Draw 29% | Valerenga 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 63% | xG Stabaek 1.46 / Valerenga 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Stabaek attack 0.774 / def 1.284 | Valerenga attack 0.919 / def 1.031 | league avg home 1.834 / away 1.314 • Poisson stance: Valerenga (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Stabaek xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Valerenga xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stabaek vs Valerenga kick off?
Stabaek vs Valerenga kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 25 September 2021 at Nadderud Stadion.
Where is Stabaek vs Valerenga being played?
The match is being played at Nadderud Stadion.
What competition is Stabaek vs Valerenga part of?
Stabaek vs Valerenga is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stabaek vs Valerenga?
Our statistical model gives Stabaek a 33% chance of winning, Valerenga a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Valerenga the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stabaek vs Valerenga?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Stabaek and Valerenga will score (BTTS).
Will Stabaek vs Valerenga have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Valerenga?
Record (4 meetings): Stabaek 0W | Draws 2 | Valerenga 2W.
What form are Stabaek and Valerenga in?
Stabaek (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Valerenga (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Stabaek's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Valerenga's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. The same calculation in reverse, Valerenga's attack versus Stabaek's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Valerenga Win
33%
2.99
29%
3.41
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Stabaek xG
Total xG
3.01
1.55
Valerenga xG
2.99
33%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
21%
4.71
23%
4.32
Win to Nil
7%
14.09
9%
11.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 7.6 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.1 | 8.6 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.2 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stabaek vs Valerenga?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Stabaek and Valerenga expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Stabaek and 1.55 for Valerenga, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Stabaek vs Valerenga?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Stabaek's recent record stands at 12W 16D 20L from 48 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Stabaek is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Valerenga, meanwhile, have gone 20W 19D 9L across 48 games — 1.65 PPG, with D-D-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Valerenga is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Valerenga by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Stabaek heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Stabaek have managed 7W 7D 9L from 23 games — 1.22 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Valerenga's away record stands at 7W 8D 8L across 23 trips, a 1.26 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Stabaek are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Valerenga are on 1.69 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valerenga in 73%.
Last 48 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stabaek
Blended
Valerenga
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stabaek and Valerenga in coming into this match?
Stabaek have gone 12W 16D 20L in their last 48 games (1.08 PPG), while Valerenga have gone 20W 19D 9L in their last 48 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stabaek at home or Valerenga away?
Valerenga's away record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stabaek at home: 1.22 PPG; Valerenga away: 1.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 November 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Stabaek's record when hosting Valerenga specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Stabaek
3
Draws
2
Valerenga
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Valerenga?
From 6 meetings on record, Stabaek have won 1, Valerenga have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stabaek and Valerenga last play each other?
They last met on 12 November 2023, when Valerenga 0-0 Stabaek.
Who has won more matches between Stabaek and Valerenga?
Valerenga have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stabaek are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Valerenga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stabaek 48%, Valerenga 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Stabaek) and 52% (Valerenga).
On the defensive side: Stabaek have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stabaek home games / Valerenga away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stabaek play Valerenga?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Stabaek's games and 65% of Valerenga's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stabaek vs Valerenga usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Stabaek's recent games and 52% of Valerenga's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stabaek and Valerenga tend to score early?
Stabaek have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Valerenga in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Stabaek's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Nadderud Stadion, Regular Season - 23, as Stabaek and Valerenga drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stabaek 1.46 xG and Valerenga 1.55 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Stabaek fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Valerenga landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stabaek attack 0.77 / defence 1.28 against Valerenga attack 0.92 / defence 1.03, drawn from 48/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stabaek 33% | Draw 29% | Valerenga 37%, with Valerenga to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stabaek 60%, Valerenga 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stabaek's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Valerenga's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Valerenga arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Stabaek (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line. Valerenga (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.