Viking 1-1 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Viking at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Viking vs Bodo/Glimt fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bodo/Glimt make the trip to SR-Bank Arena to face Viking in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Saturday 10 August 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Viking (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Viking, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Viking's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at SR-Bank Arena this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Bodo/Glimt have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W L W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bodo/Glimt's away record: 6W 1D 3L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.00 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Viking have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Bodo/Glimt in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Viking, 4 for Bodo/Glimt and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.5 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2024, ended 0–1 with Bodo/Glimt winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Viking — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Bodo/Glimt — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Viking 60% and Bodo/Glimt 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Viking 57% | Bodo/Glimt 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Viking 1.49 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Viking attack 1.183 / defence 0.863 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.140 / defence 0.863. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.375. Data: 47 Viking games / 48 Bodo/Glimt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Viking 41% | Draw 25% | Bodo/Glimt 34%. Fair-value odds: Viking 2.44 | Draw 4.00 | Bodo/Glimt 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Viking are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Viking if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Viking 60% | Bodo/Glimt 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Viking vs Bodo/Glimt | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: SR-Bank Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Aug 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Viking 41% | Draw 25% | Bodo/Glimt 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Viking 1.49 / Bodo/Glimt 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Viking attack 1.183 / def 0.863 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.140 / def 0.863 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.375 • Poisson stance: Viking (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Viking xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Bodo/Glimt xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Viking vs Bodo/Glimt kick off?
Viking vs Bodo/Glimt kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 10 August 2024 at SR-Bank Arena.
What was the final score in Viking vs Bodo/Glimt?
Viking 1 - 1 Bodo/Glimt.
Where is Viking vs Bodo/Glimt being played?
The match is being played at SR-Bank Arena.
What competition is Viking vs Bodo/Glimt part of?
Viking vs Bodo/Glimt is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Viking vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our statistical model gives Viking a 41% chance of winning, Bodo/Glimt a 34% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Viking vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Viking and Bodo/Glimt will score (BTTS).
Will Viking vs Bodo/Glimt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Bodo/Glimt?
Record (6 meetings): Viking 2W | Draws 0 | Bodo/Glimt 4W.
What form are Viking and Bodo/Glimt in?
Viking (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Viking's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Bodo/Glimt's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. Flip it around — Bodo/Glimt's attack (1.14x) against Viking's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 47/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
41%
2.46
25%
4.00
34%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Viking xG
Total xG
2.84
1.35
Bodo/Glimt xG
2.46
41%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
2.90
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
23%
4.43
Win to Nil
10%
9.54
8%
12.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 7.9 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.7 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.7 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Viking vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Viking and Bodo/Glimt expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Viking and 1.35 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Viking vs Bodo/Glimt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 47 outings, Viking have picked up 1.91 PPG on a 27W 9D 11L record — W-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Viking is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bodo/Glimt's form line: 33W 8D 6L from 47 games, 2.28 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-W. The sample for Bodo/Glimt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.91 PPG for Viking against 2.28 for Bodo/Glimt. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Viking have posted 2.13 PPG from 23 outings (15W 4D 4L).
On the road, Bodo/Glimt have gone 15W 3D 5L from 23 away games — 2.09 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Viking are averaging 1.94 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Bodo/Glimt are on 2.49 scored and 1.15 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Bodo/Glimt in 62%.
Last 47 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Viking
Blended
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Viking and Bodo/Glimt in coming into this match?
Viking have gone 27W 9D 11L in their last 47 games (1.91 PPG), while Bodo/Glimt have gone 33W 8D 6L in their last 47 (2.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Viking at home or Bodo/Glimt away?
Viking's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Viking at home: 2.13 PPG; Bodo/Glimt away: 2.09 PPG.
Have Viking or Bodo/Glimt been keeping clean sheets recently?
Viking have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Bodo/Glimt in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Viking won 5-0 on 11 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Viking have gone 3W 1D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Bodo/Glimt — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Viking
1
Draws
5
Bodo/Glimt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Bodo/Glimt?
From 10 meetings on record, Viking have won 4, Bodo/Glimt have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Viking and Bodo/Glimt last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Viking 5-0 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Viking and Bodo/Glimt?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 74% for Viking, 65% for Bodo/Glimt — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Viking and 70% for Bodo/Glimt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Viking home games / Bodo/Glimt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Viking play Bodo/Glimt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Viking's games and 65% of Bodo/Glimt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Viking vs Bodo/Glimt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Viking's matches and 70% of Bodo/Glimt's.
Do Viking and Bodo/Glimt tend to score early?
Viking have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Bodo/Glimt in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Viking and Bodo/Glimt share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking and Bodo/Glimt finished level at 1-1 at SR-Bank Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Viking 1.49 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.35 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Viking attack 1.18 / defence 0.86 against Bodo/Glimt attack 1.14 / defence 0.86, drawn from 47/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Viking 41% | Draw 25% | Bodo/Glimt 34%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Viking 57%, Bodo/Glimt 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Viking's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Viking 1.91 PPG, Bodo/Glimt 2.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Viking (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.30 scoring average — below par going forward. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.43 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.