KFUM Oslo 1-0 Rosenborg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Rosenborg at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this KFUM Oslo vs Rosenborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
KFUM Arena plays host to KFUM Oslo versus Rosenborg in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Sunday 11 August 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
KFUM Oslo (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for KFUM Oslo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, KFUM Oslo have posted 0W 5D 3L at KFUM Arena — 0.62 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.62 lags behind their overall 1.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at KFUM Arena this season.
Rosenborg have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Rosenborg have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for KFUM Oslo against 1.20 for Rosenborg. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — KFUM Oslo register both teams scoring in 75% of relevant games, Rosenborg in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — KFUM Oslo lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 May 2024, ended 3–1 with KFUM Oslo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
KFUM Oslo half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Rosenborg half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 88% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — KFUM Oslo 71% and Rosenborg 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KFUM Oslo 53% | Rosenborg 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KFUM Oslo 1.74 xG and Rosenborg 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KFUM Oslo attack 0.784 / defence 1.193 | Rosenborg attack 1.113 / defence 1.529. League average goals — home 1.454 / away 1.371. KFUM Oslo's attack strength of 0.784 is below the league average — the 1.74 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Rosenborg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.529 — this is suppressing KFUM Oslo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 KFUM Oslo games / 46 Rosenborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: KFUM Oslo 37% | Draw 23% | Rosenborg 40%. Fair-value odds: KFUM Oslo 2.70 | Draw 4.35 | Rosenborg 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.56. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.56 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.74 / 1.82) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Rosenborg as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rosenborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.56 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: KFUM Oslo 75% | Rosenborg 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KFUM Oslo vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: KFUM Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Aug 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KFUM Oslo 37% | Draw 23% | Rosenborg 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 69% | xG KFUM Oslo 1.74 / Rosenborg 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: KFUM Oslo attack 0.784 / def 1.193 | Rosenborg attack 1.113 / def 1.529 | league avg home 1.454 / away 1.371 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
KFUM Oslo xG
Expected Goals
1.82
Rosenborg xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does KFUM Oslo vs Rosenborg kick off?
KFUM Oslo vs Rosenborg kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 11 August 2024 at KFUM Arena.
What was the final score in KFUM Oslo vs Rosenborg?
KFUM Oslo 1 - 0 Rosenborg.
Where is KFUM Oslo vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at KFUM Arena.
What competition is KFUM Oslo vs Rosenborg part of?
KFUM Oslo vs Rosenborg is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win KFUM Oslo vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives KFUM Oslo a 37% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 40% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in KFUM Oslo vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both KFUM Oslo and Rosenborg will score (BTTS).
Will KFUM Oslo vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between KFUM Oslo and Rosenborg?
Record (1 meetings): KFUM Oslo 1W | Draws 0 | Rosenborg 0W.
What form are KFUM Oslo and Rosenborg in?
KFUM Oslo (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-D-D. Rosenborg (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates KFUM Oslo's attack at 0.78x the league average against Rosenborg's defence at 1.53x — combine the two and it projects 1.74 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rosenborg's attack (1.11x) against KFUM Oslo's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.82.
These ratings are built from 17/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.2%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
37%
2.69
23%
4.43
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
KFUM Oslo xG
Total xG
3.56
1.82
Rosenborg xG
2.69
37%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.44
31%
BTTS No
3.27
Clean Sheet
16%
6.17
18%
5.71
Win to Nil
6%
16.62
7%
14.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 5.2 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 9.0 | 8.2 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.8 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.6 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for KFUM Oslo vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are KFUM Oslo and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for KFUM Oslo and 1.82 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 3.56.
How confident is the prediction model for KFUM Oslo vs Rosenborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
KFUM Oslo's recent record stands at 5W 8D 4L from 17 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for KFUM Oslo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rosenborg, meanwhile, have gone 7W 3D 7L across 17 games — 1.41 PPG, with L-W-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for KFUM Oslo against 1.41 for Rosenborg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, KFUM Oslo have managed 0W 5D 3L from 8 games — 0.62 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.35 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Rosenborg's away record stands at 1W 2D 5L across 8 trips, a 0.62 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.41 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rosenborg's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
KFUM Oslo are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Rosenborg are on 1.65 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: KFUM Oslo have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Rosenborg in 71%.
Last 17 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KFUM Oslo
Blended
Rosenborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are KFUM Oslo and Rosenborg in coming into this match?
KFUM Oslo have gone 5W 8D 4L in their last 17 games (1.35 PPG), while Rosenborg have gone 7W 3D 7L in their last 17 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KFUM Oslo at home or Rosenborg away?
KFUM Oslo's home record (0.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KFUM Oslo at home: 0.62 PPG; Rosenborg away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since May 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 25 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
KFUM Oslo go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: KFUM Oslo won 4-1 on 3 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, KFUM Oslo have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Rosenborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
4
KFUM Oslo
1
Draws
0
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between KFUM Oslo and Rosenborg?
From 5 meetings on record, KFUM Oslo have won 4, Rosenborg have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did KFUM Oslo and Rosenborg last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2026, when KFUM Oslo 2-0 Rosenborg.
Who has won more matches between KFUM Oslo and Rosenborg?
KFUM Oslo have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
KFUM Oslo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for KFUM Oslo, 75% for Rosenborg — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for KFUM Oslo and 88% for Rosenborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 75% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KFUM Oslo home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when KFUM Oslo play Rosenborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of KFUM Oslo's games and 75% of Rosenborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is KFUM Oslo vs Rosenborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of KFUM Oslo's matches and 88% of Rosenborg's.
Do KFUM Oslo and Rosenborg tend to score early?
KFUM Oslo have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Rosenborg in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as KFUM Oslo defy the odds to beat Rosenborg 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KFUM Oslo beat Rosenborg 1-0 at KFUM Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KFUM Oslo 1.74 xG and Rosenborg 1.82 xG, a combined 3.56. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Rosenborg landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KFUM Oslo attack 0.78 / defence 1.19 against Rosenborg attack 1.11 / defence 1.53, drawn from 17/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KFUM Oslo 37% | Draw 23% | Rosenborg 40%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual KFUM Oslo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KFUM Oslo 53%, Rosenborg 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KFUM Oslo's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Rosenborg's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — KFUM Oslo 1.35 PPG, Rosenborg 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the KFUM Oslo win broke the near-deadlock. KFUM Oslo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line. Rosenborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.