Bodo/Glimt 4-2 Haugesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bodo/Glimt (65%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Bodo/Glimt face Haugesund.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bodo/Glimt host Haugesund at Aspmyra Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 3 August 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Bodo/Glimt — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bodo/Glimt's home record at Aspmyra Stadion: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Aspmyra Stadion. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Bodo/Glimt are significantly better at Aspmyra Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Haugesund have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haugesund's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Bodo/Glimt are in the better shape of the two on current Eliteserien data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Bodo/Glimt have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 7 past contests while Haugesund have managed just 0 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Jun 2024, ended 1–0 with Bodo/Glimt winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Bodo/Glimt and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Bodo/Glimt in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
Haugesund in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bodo/Glimt 62% versus Haugesund 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bodo/Glimt 64% | Haugesund 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 2.47 xG and Haugesund 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.442 / defence 0.823 | Haugesund attack 1.060 / defence 1.201. League average goals — home 1.427 / away 1.361. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack strength of 1.442 — their λ of 2.47 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Haugesund bring a strong defensive rating of 1.201 — this is suppressing Bodo/Glimt's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 47 Bodo/Glimt games / 45 Haugesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 65% | Draw 18% | Haugesund 16%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.54 | Draw 5.56 | Haugesund 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (65%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.66. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.66 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.47 / 1.19) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bodo/Glimt are the pick at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.66 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bodo/Glimt 50% | Haugesund 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Aspmyra Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Aug 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 65% | Draw 18% | Haugesund 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 64% | xG Bodo/Glimt 2.47 / Haugesund 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.442 / def 0.823 | Haugesund attack 1.060 / def 1.201 | league avg home 1.427 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.47
Bodo/Glimt xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Haugesund xG
64%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund kick off?
Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 3 August 2024 at Aspmyra Stadion.
What was the final score in Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund?
Bodo/Glimt 4 - 2 Haugesund.
Where is Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Aspmyra Stadion.
What competition is Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund part of?
Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Bodo/Glimt a 65% chance of winning, Haugesund a 16% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Bodo/Glimt and Haugesund will score (BTTS).
Will Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Haugesund?
Record (7 meetings): Bodo/Glimt 5W | Draws 2 | Haugesund 0W.
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Haugesund in?
Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Haugesund (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Bodo/Glimt's attack rating (1.44) and Haugesund's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 2.47 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Haugesund's attack versus Bodo/Glimt's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.5%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
65%
1.53
18%
5.44
16%
6.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
7.9%
Home win
3 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.47
Bodo/Glimt xG
Total xG
3.66
1.19
Haugesund xG
1.53
65%
Home win
5.44
18%
Draw
6.10
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.77
Clean Sheet
30%
3.28
8%
11.86
Win to Nil
20%
5.03
1%
72.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 7.6 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.3 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.0 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Bodo/Glimt and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 2.47 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 1.19 for Haugesund, a combined total of 3.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bodo/Glimt's recent record stands at 31W 8D 6L from 45 games, a 2.24 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Bodo/Glimt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Haugesund, meanwhile, have gone 14W 8D 23L across 45 games — 1.11 PPG, with L-L-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bodo/Glimt by 1.13 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Haugesund heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Bodo/Glimt have managed 16W 5D 1L from 22 games — 2.41 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Haugesund's away record stands at 4W 6D 12L across 22 trips, a 0.82 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bodo/Glimt are averaging 2.42 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 1.11 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bodo/Glimt have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 45 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
Haugesund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Haugesund in coming into this match?
Bodo/Glimt have gone 31W 8D 6L in their last 45 games (2.24 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 14W 8D 23L in their last 45 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodo/Glimt at home or Haugesund away?
Bodo/Glimt's home record (2.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodo/Glimt at home: 2.41 PPG; Haugesund away: 0.82 PPG.
Have Bodo/Glimt or Haugesund been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Haugesund in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bodo/Glimt and Haugesund runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 5 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bodo/Glimt go into this on the back of 6 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Jun 2025, when Bodo/Glimt won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bodo/Glimt's record when hosting Haugesund specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Bodo/Glimt
2
Draws
0
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Haugesund?
From 10 meetings on record, Bodo/Glimt have won 8, Haugesund have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bodo/Glimt and Haugesund last play each other?
They last met on 5 October 2025, when Bodo/Glimt 2-0 Haugesund.
Who has won more matches between Bodo/Glimt and Haugesund?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bodo/Glimt 59%, Haugesund 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Bodo/Glimt) and 50% (Haugesund).
On the defensive side: Bodo/Glimt keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Haugesund in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodo/Glimt home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bodo/Glimt play Haugesund?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Bodo/Glimt's recent matches and 50% of Haugesund's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Bodo/Glimt's recent games and 50% of Haugesund's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bodo/Glimt and Haugesund tend to score early?
Bodo/Glimt have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Haugesund in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bodo/Glimt cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Haugesund.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat Haugesund 4-2 at Aspmyra Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodo/Glimt 2.47 xG and Haugesund 1.19 xG, a combined 3.66. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Bodo/Glimt beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Haugesund outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodo/Glimt attack 1.44 / defence 0.82 against Haugesund attack 1.06 / defence 1.20, drawn from 47/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodo/Glimt 65% | Draw 18% | Haugesund 16%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 65%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodo/Glimt 64%, Haugesund 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Haugesund's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.24 PPG against 1.11. Form held, and they took the win. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.41 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Haugesund (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.