Rosenborg 2-1 Viking – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rosenborg at 39%, yet in-form Viking provide a compelling counter-argument — this Rosenborg vs Viking fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Lerkendal Stadion plays host to Rosenborg versus Viking in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Sunday 18 August 2024 at 18:15 UTC.
Form
Rosenborg (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Lerkendal Stadion, Rosenborg have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Rosenborg are significantly better at Lerkendal Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Viking have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W L W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Viking, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Viking's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Viking are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Rosenborg 3W, Viking 2W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.8 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Jun 2024, ended 2–4 with Viking winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Rosenborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Viking goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rosenborg 64% and Viking 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rosenborg 66% | Viking 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 1.55 xG and Viking 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 1.024 / defence 0.948 | Viking attack 1.163 / defence 1.060. League average goals — home 1.427 / away 1.358. Data: 47 Rosenborg games / 48 Viking games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 39% | Draw 24% | Viking 37%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 2.56 | Draw 4.17 | Viking 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.55 / 1.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Rosenborg as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Viking (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rosenborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.05 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Rosenborg 70% | Viking 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Viking | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Aug 2024, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 39% | Draw 24% | Viking 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Rosenborg 1.55 / Viking 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 1.024 / def 0.948 | Viking attack 1.163 / def 1.060 | league avg home 1.427 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Viking xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs Viking kick off?
Rosenborg vs Viking kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 18 August 2024 at Lerkendal Stadion.
What was the final score in Rosenborg vs Viking?
Rosenborg 2 - 1 Viking.
Where is Rosenborg vs Viking being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Viking part of?
Rosenborg vs Viking is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Viking?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 39% chance of winning, Viking a 37% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Viking?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Rosenborg and Viking will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs Viking have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Viking?
Record (6 meetings): Rosenborg 3W | Draws 1 | Viking 2W.
What form are Rosenborg and Viking in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Viking (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Rosenborg's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Viking's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. Flip it around — Viking's attack (1.16x) against Rosenborg's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
These ratings are built from 47/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
39%
2.56
24%
4.15
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
3.05
1.50
Viking xG
2.56
39%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
22%
4.47
21%
4.71
Win to Nil
9%
11.44
8%
12.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 7.1 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.0 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.5 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Viking?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Viking expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Rosenborg and 1.50 for Viking, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Viking?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rosenborg come into this having played 47 games, going 17W 9D 21L for 1.28 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-L. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Viking sit at 1.94 PPG from 47 outings (27W 10D 10L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Viking is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Viking carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.66 PPG clear of Rosenborg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Rosenborg's home form reads 11W 4D 7L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.68 PPG return.
Away from home, Viking have taken 1.73 points per game from 22 outings (11W 5D 6L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rosenborg are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Viking are on 1.96 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rosenborg have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Viking in 62%.
Last 47 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Blended
Viking
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rosenborg and Viking in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 17W 9D 21L in their last 47 games (1.28 PPG), while Viking have gone 27W 10D 10L in their last 47 (1.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or Viking away?
Viking's away record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 1.68 PPG; Viking away: 1.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Viking go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rosenborg won 1-5 on 3 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rosenborg have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Viking — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Rosenborg
2
Draws
4
Viking
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Viking?
From 10 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 4, Viking have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Viking last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when Viking 3-0 Rosenborg.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rosenborg 64%, Viking 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Rosenborg) and 59% (Viking). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Viking away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rosenborg play Viking?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Rosenborg's games and 50% of Viking's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rosenborg vs Viking usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Rosenborg's matches and 59% of Viking's.
Do Rosenborg and Viking tend to score early?
Rosenborg have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Viking in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rosenborg edge out Viking 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg beat Viking 2-1 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 1.55 xG and Viking 1.50 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 1.02 / defence 0.95 against Viking attack 1.16 / defence 1.06, drawn from 47/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 39% | Draw 24% | Viking 37%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 66%, Viking 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (47 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Viking's trading profile (47 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Viking arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.28. Form was overturned, with Rosenborg winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.