Haugesund 0-1 Ham-Kam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ham-Kam at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Haugesund vs Ham-Kam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Haugesund host Ham-Kam at Haugesund Sparebank Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 10 August 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Haugesund stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haugesund at Haugesund Sparebank Arena this season: 4W 0D 6L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Ham-Kam have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ham-Kam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ham-Kam's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Haugesund 1.10 PPG, Ham-Kam 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Haugesund have won 2, Ham-Kam 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Haugesund trading profile (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Ham-Kam trading profile (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haugesund 52% versus Ham-Kam 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haugesund 52% | Ham-Kam 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 1.00 xG and Ham-Kam 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 0.754 / defence 0.882 | Ham-Kam attack 1.071 / defence 0.905. League average goals — home 1.469 / away 1.378. Haugesund's attack strength of 0.754 is below the league average — the 1.00 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 46 Haugesund games / 47 Ham-Kam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haugesund 28% | Draw 28% | Ham-Kam 43%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 3.57 | Draw 3.57 | Ham-Kam 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ham-Kam are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ham-Kam offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.30 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Haugesund 30% | Ham-Kam 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs Ham-Kam | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Haugesund Sparebank Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Aug 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 28% | Draw 28% | Ham-Kam 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Haugesund 1.00 / Ham-Kam 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 0.754 / def 0.882 | Ham-Kam attack 1.071 / def 0.905 | league avg home 1.469 / away 1.378 • Poisson stance: Ham-Kam (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Ham-Kam xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haugesund vs Ham-Kam kick off?
Haugesund vs Ham-Kam kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 10 August 2024 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What was the final score in Haugesund vs Ham-Kam?
Haugesund 0 - 1 Ham-Kam.
Where is Haugesund vs Ham-Kam being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What competition is Haugesund vs Ham-Kam part of?
Haugesund vs Ham-Kam is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs Ham-Kam?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 28% chance of winning, Ham-Kam a 43% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Ham-Kam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Ham-Kam?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Haugesund and Ham-Kam will score (BTTS).
Will Haugesund vs Ham-Kam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Ham-Kam?
Record (5 meetings): Haugesund 2W | Draws 2 | Ham-Kam 1W.
What form are Haugesund and Ham-Kam in?
Haugesund (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Ham-Kam (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Haugesund's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Ham-Kam's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.00. The same calculation in reverse, Ham-Kam's attack versus Haugesund's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 0-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ham-Kam Win
28%
3.52
28%
3.51
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Haugesund xG
Total xG
2.30
1.30
Ham-Kam xG
3.52
28%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
27%
3.67
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
8%
12.92
16%
6.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.5 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs Ham-Kam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Haugesund and Ham-Kam expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Haugesund and 1.30 for Ham-Kam, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs Ham-Kam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Haugesund come into this having played 46 games, going 14W 8D 24L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-L. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ham-Kam sit at 1.07 PPG from 46 outings (13W 10D 23L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Ham-Kam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Haugesund on 1.09 PPG, Ham-Kam on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Haugesund's home form reads 10W 2D 11L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.39 PPG return.
Away from home, Ham-Kam have taken 1.09 points per game from 23 outings (7W 4D 12L).
Goals in Recent Form
Haugesund are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Ham-Kam are on 1.26 scored and 1.74 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Blended
Ham-Kam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haugesund and Ham-Kam in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 14W 8D 24L in their last 46 games (1.09 PPG), while Ham-Kam have gone 13W 10D 23L in their last 46 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haugesund at home or Ham-Kam away?
Haugesund's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haugesund at home: 1.39 PPG; Ham-Kam away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 23 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Ham-Kam go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Nov 2025, when Ham-Kam won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Haugesund's record when hosting Ham-Kam specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Haugesund
2
Draws
4
Ham-Kam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Ham-Kam?
From 8 meetings on record, Haugesund have won 2, Ham-Kam have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and Ham-Kam last play each other?
They last met on 23 November 2025, when Ham-Kam 5-0 Haugesund.
Who has won more matches between Haugesund and Ham-Kam?
Ham-Kam have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Haugesund see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haugesund 52%, Ham-Kam 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Haugesund) and 56% (Ham-Kam).
On the defensive side: Haugesund have failed to score in 26% of games; Ham-Kam in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / Ham-Kam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haugesund play Ham-Kam?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Haugesund's recent matches and 56% of Ham-Kam's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Haugesund vs Ham-Kam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Haugesund's recent games and 56% of Ham-Kam's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Haugesund and Ham-Kam tend to score early?
Haugesund have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Ham-Kam in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ham-Kam edge out Haugesund 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ham-Kam beat Haugesund 0-1 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 1.00 xG and Ham-Kam 1.30 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Haugesund fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 0.75 / defence 0.88 against Ham-Kam attack 1.07 / defence 0.91, drawn from 46/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 28% | Draw 28% | Ham-Kam 43%, with Ham-Kam to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 52%, Ham-Kam 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ham-Kam's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Haugesund 1.09 PPG, Ham-Kam 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ham-Kam win broke the near-deadlock. Haugesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.