ODD Ballklubb 1-1 Sarpsborg 08 FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this ODD Ballklubb vs Sarpsborg 08 FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 18 as ODD Ballklubb welcome Sarpsborg 08 FF to Skagerak Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 11 August 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, ODD Ballklubb have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for ODD Ballklubb, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Skagerak Arena, ODD Ballklubb have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sarpsborg 08 FF — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.30. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (ODD Ballklubb) versus 1.40 (Sarpsborg 08 FF). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for ODD Ballklubb, 3 for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 4 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.6 per contest from 9 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 7 Apr 2024, ended 1–0 with ODD Ballklubb winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
ODD Ballklubb in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Sarpsborg 08 FF in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — ODD Ballklubb 55% and Sarpsborg 08 FF 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ODD Ballklubb 55% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ODD Ballklubb 1.64 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ODD Ballklubb attack 0.970 / defence 1.141 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.175 / defence 1.164. League average goals — home 1.454 / away 1.371. Data: 47 ODD Ballklubb games / 47 Sarpsborg 08 FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 35% | Draw 23% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 43%. Fair-value odds: ODD Ballklubb 2.86 | Draw 4.35 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.48. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.48 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.64 / 1.84) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sarpsborg 08 FF are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sarpsborg 08 FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.48 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate: ODD Ballklubb 70% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ODD Ballklubb vs Sarpsborg 08 FF | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Skagerak Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Aug 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 35% | Draw 23% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 68% | xG ODD Ballklubb 1.64 / Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.84 • Poisson strength factors: ODD Ballklubb attack 0.970 / def 1.141 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.175 / def 1.164 | league avg home 1.454 / away 1.371 • Poisson stance: Sarpsborg 08 FF (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
ODD Ballklubb xG
Expected Goals
1.84
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
68%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ODD Ballklubb vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kick off?
ODD Ballklubb vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 11 August 2024 at Skagerak Arena.
What was the final score in ODD Ballklubb vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
ODD Ballklubb 1 - 1 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Where is ODD Ballklubb vs Sarpsborg 08 FF being played?
The match is being played at Skagerak Arena.
What competition is ODD Ballklubb vs Sarpsborg 08 FF part of?
ODD Ballklubb vs Sarpsborg 08 FF is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win ODD Ballklubb vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our statistical model gives ODD Ballklubb a 35% chance of winning, Sarpsborg 08 FF a 43% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in ODD Ballklubb vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both ODD Ballklubb and Sarpsborg 08 FF will score (BTTS).
Will ODD Ballklubb vs Sarpsborg 08 FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Record (9 meetings): ODD Ballklubb 2W | Draws 4 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 3W.
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Sarpsborg 08 FF in?
ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
ODD Ballklubb's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.64. The same calculation in reverse, Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack versus ODD Ballklubb's defence, projects 1.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
35%
2.90
23%
4.38
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
ODD Ballklubb xG
Total xG
3.48
1.84
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
2.90
35%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.13
Clean Sheet
16%
6.28
19%
5.16
Win to Nil
5%
18.19
8%
12.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 5.7 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 9.3 | 8.5 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.6 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ODD Ballklubb vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are ODD Ballklubb and Sarpsborg 08 FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for ODD Ballklubb and 1.84 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, a combined total of 3.48.
How confident is the prediction model for ODD Ballklubb vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 47 outings, ODD Ballklubb have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 14W 13D 20L record — D-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for ODD Ballklubb is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's form line: 18W 8D 21L from 47 games, 1.32 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-W. The sample for Sarpsborg 08 FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: ODD Ballklubb on 1.17 PPG, Sarpsborg 08 FF on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, ODD Ballklubb have posted 1.35 PPG from 23 outings (8W 7D 8L).
On the road, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 7W 5D 11L from 23 away games — 1.13 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
ODD Ballklubb are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Sarpsborg 08 FF are on 1.72 scored and 1.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sarpsborg 08 FF in 70%.
Last 47 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ODD Ballklubb
Blended
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Sarpsborg 08 FF in coming into this match?
ODD Ballklubb have gone 14W 13D 20L in their last 47 games (1.17 PPG), while Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 18W 8D 21L in their last 47 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ODD Ballklubb at home or Sarpsborg 08 FF away?
ODD Ballklubb's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ODD Ballklubb at home: 1.35 PPG; Sarpsborg 08 FF away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 August 2024, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Aug 2023, when Sarpsborg 08 FF won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
ODD Ballklubb's record when hosting Sarpsborg 08 FF specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
ODD Ballklubb
5
Draws
3
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
From 10 meetings on record, ODD Ballklubb have won 2, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did ODD Ballklubb and Sarpsborg 08 FF last play each other?
They last met on 11 August 2024, when ODD Ballklubb 1-1 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Who has won more matches between ODD Ballklubb and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — ODD Ballklubb 56%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 52% for ODD Ballklubb and 70% for Sarpsborg 08 FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: ODD Ballklubb have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ODD Ballklubb home games / Sarpsborg 08 FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ODD Ballklubb play Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of ODD Ballklubb's games and 65% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is ODD Ballklubb vs Sarpsborg 08 FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of ODD Ballklubb's matches and 70% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's.
Do ODD Ballklubb and Sarpsborg 08 FF tend to score early?
ODD Ballklubb have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
ODD Ballklubb and Sarpsborg 08 FF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ODD Ballklubb and Sarpsborg 08 FF finished level at 1-1 at Skagerak Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ODD Ballklubb 1.64 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.84 xG, a combined 3.48. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Sarpsborg 08 FF landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ODD Ballklubb attack 0.97 / defence 1.14 against Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.18 / defence 1.16, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ODD Ballklubb 35% | Draw 23% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 43%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ODD Ballklubb 55%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 72%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — ODD Ballklubb 1.17 PPG, Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.