Mjondalen 2-3 Tromso – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mjondalen at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mjondalen vs Tromso fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Tromso travel to Consto Arena to take on Mjondalen. The game is scheduled for Sunday 8 August 2021, 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Mjondalen have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mjondalen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mjondalen's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Consto Arena this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Mjondalen are significantly better at Consto Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Tromso stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Tromso, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Tromso have posted 2W 2D 3L from 7 away outings — 1.14 PPG. Away from home they average 0.86 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.14 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Mjondalen 0.80 PPG, Tromso 0.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Mjondalen in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Tromso in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjondalen 69% versus Tromso 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjondalen 46% | Tromso 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjondalen 1.43 xG and Tromso 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjondalen attack 0.831 / defence 0.954 | Tromso attack 0.772 / defence 1.011. League average goals — home 1.705 / away 1.167. Data: 43 Mjondalen games / 13 Tromso games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjondalen 48% | Draw 33% | Tromso 20%. Fair-value odds: Mjondalen 2.08 | Draw 3.03 | Tromso 5.00. Mjondalen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mjondalen at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mjondalen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Mjondalen 50% | Tromso 29% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjondalen vs Tromso | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Consto Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Aug 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjondalen 48% | Draw 33% | Tromso 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Mjondalen 1.43 / Tromso 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Mjondalen attack 0.831 / def 0.954 | Tromso attack 0.772 / def 1.011 | league avg home 1.705 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Mjondalen (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Mjondalen xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Tromso xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjondalen vs Tromso kick off?
Mjondalen vs Tromso kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 8 August 2021 at Consto Arena.
What was the final score in Mjondalen vs Tromso?
Mjondalen 2 - 3 Tromso.
Where is Mjondalen vs Tromso being played?
The match is being played at Consto Arena.
What competition is Mjondalen vs Tromso part of?
Mjondalen vs Tromso is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Mjondalen vs Tromso?
Our statistical model gives Mjondalen a 48% chance of winning, Tromso a 20% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Mjondalen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjondalen vs Tromso?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Mjondalen and Tromso will score (BTTS).
Will Mjondalen vs Tromso have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjondalen and Tromso?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mjondalen and Tromso in?
Mjondalen (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-D-L. Tromso (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Mjondalen's attack rating (0.83) and Tromso's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Tromso's attack versus Mjondalen's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.9%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjondalen Win
48%
2.10
33%
3.04
20%
5.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Mjondalen xG
Total xG
2.29
0.86
Tromso xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
5.11
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
24%
4.19
Win to Nil
20%
4.97
5%
21.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 8.7 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.5 | 12.4 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 8.9 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjondalen vs Tromso?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Mjondalen and Tromso expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Mjondalen and 0.86 for Tromso, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjondalen vs Tromso?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Mjondalen come into this having played 13 games, going 2W 6D 5L for 0.92 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-L. The sample for Mjondalen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Tromso sit at 0.77 PPG from 13 outings (2W 4D 7L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Tromso is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mjondalen on 0.92 PPG, Tromso on 0.77. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Mjondalen's home form reads 1W 3D 2L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Tromso have taken 1.33 points per game from 6 outings (2W 2D 2L). That's actually stronger than their 0.77 PPG overall record — Tromso travel well.
The Goals Picture
Mjondalen are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Tromso are on 0.92 scored and 1.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mjondalen have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 13 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjondalen
Blended
Tromso
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjondalen and Tromso in coming into this match?
Mjondalen have gone 2W 6D 5L in their last 13 games (0.92 PPG), while Tromso have gone 2W 4D 7L in their last 13 (0.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjondalen at home or Tromso away?
Tromso's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjondalen at home: 1.00 PPG; Tromso away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Mjondalen and Tromso runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Mjondalen
0
Draws
2
Tromso
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjondalen and Tromso?
From 2 meetings on record, Mjondalen have won 0, Tromso have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Mjondalen and Tromso last play each other?
They last met on 24 October 2021, when Tromso 1-0 Mjondalen.
Who has won more matches between Mjondalen and Tromso?
Tromso have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Mjondalen see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Tromso are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjondalen 67%, Tromso 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Mjondalen) and 50% (Tromso).
On the defensive side: Mjondalen keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Tromso in 33%; Tromso in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjondalen home games / Tromso away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjondalen play Tromso?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Mjondalen's recent matches and 33% of Tromso's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mjondalen vs Tromso usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Mjondalen's recent games and 50% of Tromso's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mjondalen and Tromso tend to score early?
Mjondalen have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Tromso in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Tromso defy the odds to beat Mjondalen 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tromso beat Mjondalen 2-3 at Consto Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjondalen 1.43 xG and Tromso 0.86 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Tromso outscored their 0.86 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjondalen attack 0.83 / defence 0.95 against Tromso attack 0.77 / defence 1.01, drawn from 43/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjondalen 48% | Draw 33% | Tromso 20%, with Mjondalen to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Tromso win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjondalen 46%, Tromso 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjondalen's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Tromso's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mjondalen 0.92 PPG, Tromso 0.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tromso win broke the near-deadlock. Mjondalen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Tromso (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.