Tromso 2-0 ODD Ballklubb – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Tromso at 35% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Tromso vs ODD Ballklubb encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Tromso host ODD Ballklubb at Alfheim Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 27 October 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Tromso — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Tromso, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Tromso at Alfheim Stadion this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Alfheim Stadion this season.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, ODD Ballklubb have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for ODD Ballklubb, so this record blends games from this season and last.
ODD Ballklubb's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Tromso are in the better shape of the two on current Eliteserien data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Tromso, 1 for ODD Ballklubb and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 24 Jun 2021, ended 0–3 with ODD Ballklubb winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Tromso in-play and half-time data (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
ODD Ballklubb in-play and half-time data (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tromso 56% versus ODD Ballklubb 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tromso 56% | ODD Ballklubb 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tromso 1.25 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tromso attack 0.716 / defence 1.057 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.902 / defence 0.971. League average goals — home 1.789 / away 1.274. Tromso's attack strength of 0.716 is below the league average — the 1.25 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 23 Tromso games / 53 ODD Ballklubb games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tromso 35% | Draw 32% | ODD Ballklubb 33%. Fair-value odds: Tromso 2.86 | Draw 3.12 | ODD Ballklubb 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Tromso at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tromso offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Tromso 60% | ODD Ballklubb 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tromso vs ODD Ballklubb | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Alfheim Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 27 Oct 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tromso 35% | Draw 32% | ODD Ballklubb 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 53% | xG Tromso 1.25 / ODD Ballklubb 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Tromso attack 0.716 / def 1.057 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.902 / def 0.971 | league avg home 1.789 / away 1.274 • Poisson stance: Tromso (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Tromso xG
Expected Goals
1.22
ODD Ballklubb xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tromso vs ODD Ballklubb kick off?
Tromso vs ODD Ballklubb kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 27 October 2021 at Alfheim Stadion.
What was the final score in Tromso vs ODD Ballklubb?
Tromso 2 - 0 ODD Ballklubb.
Where is Tromso vs ODD Ballklubb being played?
The match is being played at Alfheim Stadion.
What competition is Tromso vs ODD Ballklubb part of?
Tromso vs ODD Ballklubb is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Tromso vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our statistical model gives Tromso a 35% chance of winning, ODD Ballklubb a 33% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Tromso the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tromso vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Tromso and ODD Ballklubb will score (BTTS).
Will Tromso vs ODD Ballklubb have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tromso and ODD Ballklubb?
Record (1 meetings): Tromso 0W | Draws 0 | ODD Ballklubb 1W.
What form are Tromso and ODD Ballklubb in?
Tromso (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Tromso's attack rating (0.72) and ODD Ballklubb's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, ODD Ballklubb's attack versus Tromso's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tromso Win
35%
2.89
32%
3.11
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Tromso xG
Total xG
2.46
1.22
ODD Ballklubb xG
2.89
35%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
10%
9.73
10%
10.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 10.4 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.9 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.0 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tromso vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Tromso and ODD Ballklubb expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Tromso and 1.22 for ODD Ballklubb, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Tromso vs ODD Ballklubb?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Tromso's recent record stands at 6W 7D 10L from 23 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Tromso is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
ODD Ballklubb, meanwhile, have gone 7W 7D 9L across 23 games — 1.22 PPG, with L-W-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for ODD Ballklubb is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Tromso on 1.09 PPG, ODD Ballklubb on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Tromso have managed 2W 4D 5L from 11 games — 0.91 PPG in front of their own supporters.
ODD Ballklubb's away record stands at 3W 3D 5L across 11 trips, a 1.09 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Tromso are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; ODD Ballklubb are on 1.48 scored and 1.87 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: ODD Ballklubb in 61%.
Last 23 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tromso
Blended
ODD Ballklubb
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tromso and ODD Ballklubb in coming into this match?
Tromso have gone 6W 7D 10L in their last 23 games (1.09 PPG), while ODD Ballklubb have gone 7W 7D 9L in their last 23 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tromso at home or ODD Ballklubb away?
ODD Ballklubb's away record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tromso at home: 0.91 PPG; ODD Ballklubb away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Tromso and ODD Ballklubb runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 September 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 May 2024, when Tromso won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Tromso's record when hosting ODD Ballklubb specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Tromso
0
Draws
4
ODD Ballklubb
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tromso and ODD Ballklubb?
From 8 meetings on record, Tromso have won 4, ODD Ballklubb have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Tromso and ODD Ballklubb last play each other?
They last met on 15 September 2024, when ODD Ballklubb 1-0 Tromso.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Tromso are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tromso 64%, ODD Ballklubb 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Tromso) and 54% (ODD Ballklubb).
On the defensive side: ODD Ballklubb in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tromso home games / ODD Ballklubb away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tromso play ODD Ballklubb?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Tromso's recent matches and 46% of ODD Ballklubb's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Tromso vs ODD Ballklubb usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Tromso's recent games and 54% of ODD Ballklubb's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Tromso and ODD Ballklubb tend to score early?
Tromso have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, ODD Ballklubb in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Tromso cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over ODD Ballklubb.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tromso beat ODD Ballklubb 2-0 at Alfheim Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tromso 1.25 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.22 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. ODD Ballklubb landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tromso attack 0.72 / defence 1.06 against ODD Ballklubb attack 0.90 / defence 0.97, drawn from 23/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tromso 35% | Draw 32% | ODD Ballklubb 33%, with Tromso to win its most likely call at 35%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tromso 56%, ODD Ballklubb 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tromso's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Tromso 1.09 PPG, ODD Ballklubb 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tromso win broke the near-deadlock. Tromso (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.