ODD Ballklubb 3-3 Brann – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates ODD Ballklubb at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this ODD Ballklubb vs Brann fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Brann travel to Skagerak Arena to take on ODD Ballklubb. The game is scheduled for Sunday 24 October 2021, 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
ODD Ballklubb — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: D L W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for ODD Ballklubb, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Skagerak Arena, ODD Ballklubb have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — ODD Ballklubb are significantly better at Skagerak Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Brann have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Brann, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Brann's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Brann — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. ODD Ballklubb register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Brann in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for ODD Ballklubb, 1 for Brann and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Jun 2021, ended 3–1 with ODD Ballklubb winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
ODD Ballklubb trading profile (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Brann trading profile (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 79% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — ODD Ballklubb 58% and Brann 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ODD Ballklubb 64% | Brann 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ODD Ballklubb 1.93 xG and Brann 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ODD Ballklubb attack 1.012 / defence 1.296 | Brann attack 0.964 / defence 1.074. League average goals — home 1.777 / away 1.259. Data: 52 ODD Ballklubb games / 52 Brann games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 45% | Draw 25% | Brann 30%. Fair-value odds: ODD Ballklubb 2.22 | Draw 4.00 | Brann 3.33. ODD Ballklubb hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.50. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.50 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.93 / 1.57) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates ODD Ballklubb as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Brann (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on ODD Ballklubb offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.50 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 70% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: ODD Ballklubb 70% | Brann 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ODD Ballklubb vs Brann | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Skagerak Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Oct 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 45% | Draw 25% | Brann 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 70% | xG ODD Ballklubb 1.93 / Brann 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: ODD Ballklubb attack 1.012 / def 1.296 | Brann attack 0.964 / def 1.074 | league avg home 1.777 / away 1.259 • Poisson stance: ODD Ballklubb (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
ODD Ballklubb xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Brann xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ODD Ballklubb vs Brann kick off?
ODD Ballklubb vs Brann kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 24 October 2021 at Skagerak Arena.
What was the final score in ODD Ballklubb vs Brann?
ODD Ballklubb 3 - 3 Brann.
Where is ODD Ballklubb vs Brann being played?
The match is being played at Skagerak Arena.
What competition is ODD Ballklubb vs Brann part of?
ODD Ballklubb vs Brann is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win ODD Ballklubb vs Brann?
Our statistical model gives ODD Ballklubb a 45% chance of winning, Brann a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making ODD Ballklubb the favourite.
Will both teams score in ODD Ballklubb vs Brann?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both ODD Ballklubb and Brann will score (BTTS).
Will ODD Ballklubb vs Brann have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Brann?
Record (3 meetings): ODD Ballklubb 2W | Draws 0 | Brann 1W.
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Brann in?
ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-W-L-D. Brann (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from ODD Ballklubb's attack rating (1.01) and Brann's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.93 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Brann's attack versus ODD Ballklubb's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
ODD Ballklubb Win
45%
2.24
25%
3.92
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
ODD Ballklubb xG
Total xG
3.50
1.57
Brann xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.92
25%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.44
30%
BTTS No
3.29
Clean Sheet
21%
4.83
15%
6.90
Win to Nil
9%
10.83
4%
23.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 9.1 | 7.2 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.8 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.7 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ODD Ballklubb vs Brann?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are ODD Ballklubb and Brann expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for ODD Ballklubb and 1.57 for Brann, a combined total of 3.50.
How confident is the prediction model for ODD Ballklubb vs Brann?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 52 outings, ODD Ballklubb have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 20W 10D 22L record — D-L-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for ODD Ballklubb is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Brann's form line: 13W 16D 23L from 52 games, 1.06 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-D. The sample for Brann is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: ODD Ballklubb on 1.35 PPG, Brann on 1.06. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, ODD Ballklubb have posted 1.60 PPG from 25 outings (12W 4D 9L).
On the road, Brann have gone 5W 7D 13L from 25 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, ODD Ballklubb come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
ODD Ballklubb are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Brann are on 1.29 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brann in 73%.
Last 52 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ODD Ballklubb
Blended
Brann
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Brann in coming into this match?
ODD Ballklubb have gone 20W 10D 22L in their last 52 games (1.35 PPG), while Brann have gone 13W 16D 23L in their last 52 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ODD Ballklubb at home or Brann away?
ODD Ballklubb's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ODD Ballklubb at home: 1.60 PPG; Brann away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between ODD Ballklubb and Brann runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 November 2024, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Brann have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Nov 2024, when Brann won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
ODD Ballklubb's record when hosting Brann specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
ODD Ballklubb
1
Draws
4
Brann
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Brann?
From 8 meetings on record, ODD Ballklubb have won 3, Brann have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did ODD Ballklubb and Brann last play each other?
They last met on 3 November 2024, when ODD Ballklubb 0-3 Brann.
Who has won more matches between ODD Ballklubb and Brann?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — ODD Ballklubb 68%, Brann 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for ODD Ballklubb and 52% for Brann. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Brann in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ODD Ballklubb home games / Brann away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ODD Ballklubb play Brann?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of ODD Ballklubb's games and 60% of Brann's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is ODD Ballklubb vs Brann usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of ODD Ballklubb's matches and 52% of Brann's.
Do ODD Ballklubb and Brann tend to score early?
ODD Ballklubb have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Brann in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
ODD Ballklubb and Brann share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Skagerak Arena, Regular Season - 23, as ODD Ballklubb and Brann drew 3-3 in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ODD Ballklubb 1.93 xG and Brann 1.57 xG, a combined 3.50. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. ODD Ballklubb beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Brann outscored their 1.57 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ODD Ballklubb attack 1.01 / defence 1.30 against Brann attack 0.96 / defence 1.07, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ODD Ballklubb 45% | Draw 25% | Brann 30%, with ODD Ballklubb to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ODD Ballklubb 64%, Brann 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Brann's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — ODD Ballklubb 1.35 PPG, Brann 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.88 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Brann (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.