Bodo/Glimt 1-0 Valerenga – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bodo/Glimt at 65%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 20 as Bodo/Glimt welcome Valerenga to Aspmyra Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 26 September 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Bodo/Glimt — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bodo/Glimt's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Aspmyra Stadion this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Valerenga stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D W L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Valerenga, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valerenga's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Bodo/Glimt) versus 1.40 (Valerenga). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Bodo/Glimt, 0 for Valerenga and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Jun 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Bodo/Glimt in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
Valerenga in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bodo/Glimt 63% and Valerenga 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bodo/Glimt 76% | Valerenga 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 2.35 xG and Valerenga 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.227 / defence 0.845 | Valerenga attack 0.892 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 1.841 / away 1.357. Data: 49 Bodo/Glimt games / 49 Valerenga games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 65% | Draw 22% | Valerenga 13%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.54 | Draw 4.55 | Valerenga 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (65%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.35 / 1.02) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bodo/Glimt at 65% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.37 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bodo/Glimt 50% | Valerenga 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Aspmyra Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Sep 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 65% | Draw 22% | Valerenga 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 60% | xG Bodo/Glimt 2.35 / Valerenga 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.227 / def 0.845 | Valerenga attack 0.892 / def 1.040 | league avg home 1.841 / away 1.357 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.35
Bodo/Glimt xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Valerenga xG
60%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga kick off?
Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 26 September 2021 at Aspmyra Stadion.
What was the final score in Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga?
Bodo/Glimt 1 - 0 Valerenga.
Where is Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga being played?
The match is being played at Aspmyra Stadion.
What competition is Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga part of?
Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga?
Our statistical model gives Bodo/Glimt a 65% chance of winning, Valerenga a 13% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Bodo/Glimt and Valerenga will score (BTTS).
Will Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Valerenga?
Record (3 meetings): Bodo/Glimt 1W | Draws 2 | Valerenga 0W.
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Valerenga in?
Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Valerenga (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Bodo/Glimt's attacking strength (1.23x league average) is weighed against Valerenga's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.35. The same calculation in reverse, Valerenga's attack versus Bodo/Glimt's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.7%. Close behind: 2-0 (9.5%), 1-1 (9.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
65%
1.53
22%
4.62
13%
7.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.35
Bodo/Glimt xG
Total xG
3.37
1.02
Valerenga xG
1.53
65%
Home win
4.62
22%
Draw
7.58
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
10%
10.48
Win to Nil
23%
4.26
1%
79.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.1 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.7 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 7.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Bodo/Glimt and Valerenga expected to score?
The model projects 2.35 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 1.02 for Valerenga, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bodo/Glimt's recent record stands at 37W 8D 4L from 49 games, a 2.43 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Bodo/Glimt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Valerenga, meanwhile, have gone 21W 19D 9L across 49 games — 1.67 PPG, with D-D-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Valerenga is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bodo/Glimt by 0.76 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Valerenga heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Bodo/Glimt have managed 20W 3D 1L from 24 games — 2.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Valerenga's away record stands at 8W 8D 8L across 24 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bodo/Glimt are averaging 2.92 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Valerenga are on 1.67 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bodo/Glimt have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Valerenga in 71%.
Last 49 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
Valerenga
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Valerenga in coming into this match?
Bodo/Glimt have gone 37W 8D 4L in their last 49 games (2.43 PPG), while Valerenga have gone 21W 19D 9L in their last 49 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodo/Glimt at home or Valerenga away?
Bodo/Glimt's home record (2.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodo/Glimt at home: 2.62 PPG; Valerenga away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Bodo/Glimt or Valerenga been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Valerenga in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 1 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Oct 2022, when Bodo/Glimt won 0-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bodo/Glimt's record when hosting Valerenga specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Bodo/Glimt
2
Draws
1
Valerenga
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Valerenga?
From 10 meetings on record, Bodo/Glimt have won 7, Valerenga have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bodo/Glimt and Valerenga last play each other?
They last met on 1 November 2025, when Valerenga 3-1 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Bodo/Glimt and Valerenga?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 71% of the time.
Valerenga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bodo/Glimt 54%, Valerenga 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Bodo/Glimt and 50% for Valerenga. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bodo/Glimt keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodo/Glimt home games / Valerenga away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bodo/Glimt play Valerenga?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Bodo/Glimt's games and 62% of Valerenga's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Bodo/Glimt's matches and 50% of Valerenga's.
Do Bodo/Glimt and Valerenga tend to score early?
Bodo/Glimt have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Valerenga in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bodo/Glimt edge out Valerenga 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat Valerenga 1-0 at Aspmyra Stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodo/Glimt 2.35 xG and Valerenga 1.02 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bodo/Glimt fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Valerenga landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodo/Glimt attack 1.23 / defence 0.84 against Valerenga attack 0.89 / defence 1.04, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodo/Glimt 65% | Draw 22% | Valerenga 13%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 65%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodo/Glimt 76%, Valerenga 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Valerenga's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.43 PPG against 1.67. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Valerenga (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.