Stabaek 0-3 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bodo/Glimt (55%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Stabaek face Bodo/Glimt.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Stabaek and Bodo/Glimt meet at Nadderud Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 3 October 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Stabaek's overall Eliteserien record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Stabaek, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stabaek's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Nadderud Stadion this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Bodo/Glimt (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bodo/Glimt's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
Bodo/Glimt arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Stabaek 0W, Bodo/Glimt 2W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Jun 2021, ended 1–4 with Bodo/Glimt winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Stabaek — key trading statistics (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Bodo/Glimt — key trading statistics (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stabaek 56% versus Bodo/Glimt 62%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Stabaek 60% | Bodo/Glimt 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stabaek 0.99 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stabaek attack 0.699 / defence 1.178 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.171 / defence 0.786. League average goals — home 1.809 / away 1.322. Stabaek's attack strength of 0.699 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Bodo/Glimt's defence strength of 0.786 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 50 Stabaek games / 50 Bodo/Glimt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stabaek 18% | Draw 27% | Bodo/Glimt 55%. Fair-value odds: Stabaek 5.56 | Draw 3.70 | Bodo/Glimt 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (55%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bodo/Glimt at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.82 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 5.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Stabaek 50% | Bodo/Glimt 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stabaek vs Bodo/Glimt | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Nadderud Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Oct 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stabaek 18% | Draw 27% | Bodo/Glimt 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 55% | xG Stabaek 0.99 / Bodo/Glimt 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: Stabaek attack 0.699 / def 1.178 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.171 / def 0.786 | league avg home 1.809 / away 1.322 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Stabaek xG
Expected Goals
1.82
Bodo/Glimt xG
55%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stabaek vs Bodo/Glimt kick off?
Stabaek vs Bodo/Glimt kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 3 October 2021 at Nadderud Stadion.
What was the final score in Stabaek vs Bodo/Glimt?
Stabaek 0 - 3 Bodo/Glimt.
Where is Stabaek vs Bodo/Glimt being played?
The match is being played at Nadderud Stadion.
What competition is Stabaek vs Bodo/Glimt part of?
Stabaek vs Bodo/Glimt is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stabaek vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our statistical model gives Stabaek a 18% chance of winning, Bodo/Glimt a 55% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stabaek vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Stabaek and Bodo/Glimt will score (BTTS).
Will Stabaek vs Bodo/Glimt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Bodo/Glimt?
Record (3 meetings): Stabaek 0W | Draws 1 | Bodo/Glimt 2W.
What form are Stabaek and Bodo/Glimt in?
Stabaek (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-W-D. Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Stabaek's attack rating (0.70) and Bodo/Glimt's defence rating (0.79), the model arrives at 0.99 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bodo/Glimt's attack (1.17x) against Stabaek's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.82.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 0-2 (9.9%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
18%
5.55
27%
3.64
55%
1.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
0 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Stabaek xG
Total xG
2.82
1.82
Bodo/Glimt xG
5.55
18%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
1.83
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
16%
6.20
37%
2.70
Win to Nil
3%
34.41
20%
4.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 10.9 | 9.9 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stabaek vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Stabaek and Bodo/Glimt expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Stabaek and 1.82 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Stabaek vs Bodo/Glimt?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 50 outings, Stabaek have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 13W 17D 20L record — D-L-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Stabaek is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bodo/Glimt's form line: 38W 8D 4L from 50 games, 2.44 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-W. The sample for Bodo/Glimt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bodo/Glimt are the form team by 1.32 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Stabaek.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Stabaek have posted 1.21 PPG from 24 outings (7W 8D 9L).
On the road, Bodo/Glimt have gone 16W 5D 3L from 24 away games — 2.21 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Stabaek are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Bodo/Glimt are on 2.88 scored and 1.02 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bodo/Glimt in 62%.
Last 50 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stabaek
Blended
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stabaek and Bodo/Glimt in coming into this match?
Stabaek have gone 13W 17D 20L in their last 50 games (1.12 PPG), while Bodo/Glimt have gone 38W 8D 4L in their last 50 (2.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stabaek at home or Bodo/Glimt away?
Bodo/Glimt's away record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stabaek at home: 1.21 PPG; Bodo/Glimt away: 2.21 PPG.
Have Stabaek or Bodo/Glimt been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stabaek have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Bodo/Glimt in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since July 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 November 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Bodo/Glimt have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bodo/Glimt won 4-0 on 16 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stabaek have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Bodo/Glimt — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Stabaek
1
Draws
5
Bodo/Glimt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Bodo/Glimt?
From 6 meetings on record, Stabaek have won 0, Bodo/Glimt have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stabaek and Bodo/Glimt last play each other?
They last met on 5 November 2023, when Stabaek 0-4 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Stabaek and Bodo/Glimt?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Stabaek are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stabaek 46%, Bodo/Glimt 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 46% for Stabaek and 75% for Bodo/Glimt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 58% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stabaek have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stabaek home games / Bodo/Glimt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stabaek play Bodo/Glimt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Stabaek's games and 71% of Bodo/Glimt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stabaek vs Bodo/Glimt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Stabaek's matches and 75% of Bodo/Glimt's.
Do Stabaek and Bodo/Glimt tend to score early?
Stabaek have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Bodo/Glimt in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bodo/Glimt run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Stabaek.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat Stabaek 0-3 at Nadderud Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stabaek 0.99 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.82 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Stabaek fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Bodo/Glimt outscored their 1.82 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stabaek attack 0.70 / defence 1.18 against Bodo/Glimt attack 1.17 / defence 0.79, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stabaek 18% | Draw 27% | Bodo/Glimt 55%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stabaek 60%, Bodo/Glimt 74%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stabaek's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.44 PPG against 1.12. Form held, and they took the win. Stabaek (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.