Stabaek 0-3 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 55% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stabaek vs Bodo/Glimt encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Stabaek and Bodo/Glimt meet at Nadderud Stadion in Eliteserien (matchday 21). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 3 October 2021 at 18:00 UK time.

Current Form

Stabaek's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Stabaek's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.

Bodo/Glimt (all games): 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 — 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Bodo/Glimt's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 road games (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.

Bodo/Glimt arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Bodo/Glimt edge it 2 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 5.3 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 27 Jun 2021, ended Stabaek 1–4 Bodo/Glimt — a Bodo/Glimt win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Stabaek — key trading statistics (last 50 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

Bodo/Glimt — key trading statistics (last 50 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 60% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stabaek 56% versus Bodo/Glimt 62%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Stabaek 60% | Bodo/Glimt 74%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Stabaek surrender their half-time lead 36% of the time, while Bodo/Glimt have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 60% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Stabaek 0.99 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stabaek attack 0.699 / defence 1.178 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.171 / defence 0.786. League average goals — home 1.809 / away 1.322. Stabaek's attack rating of 0.699 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.99. Bodo/Glimt bring a tight defence (rating 0.786, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Stabaek's projected output down. Data: built from Stabaek's last 50 games and Bodo/Glimt's last 50.

Result probabilities: Stabaek 18% | Draw 27% | Bodo/Glimt 55%. Fair-value odds: Stabaek 5.55 | Draw 3.64 | Bodo/Glimt 1.83. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (55%) — a 28pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Bodo/Glimt at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.82 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Stabaek's last 10 home games and Bodo/Glimt's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 5.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Stabaek 50% (last 10 home games) | Bodo/Glimt 50% (last 10 away games).

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