Stabaek 0-1 Brann – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stabaek at 36%, yet in-form Brann provide a compelling counter-argument — this Stabaek vs Brann fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Brann make the trip to Nadderud Stadion to face Stabaek in Eliteserien (matchday 22). The match kicks off on Sunday 17 September 2023 at 17:00 UK time.
Current Form
Stabaek's record over their last 10 games: 0W 2D 8L (0.20 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Stabaek at home: 3W 3D 3L from their last 9 home games — 1.33 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.20 — Stabaek are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Brann (all games): 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L L W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Brann have gone 3W 1D 5L in their last 9 away fixtures (1.11 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Brann are 1.40 PPG clear of Stabaek over their recent games (1.60 vs 0.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Brann edge it 2 wins to 1, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 16 May 2023, ended Stabaek 1–4 Brann — a Brann win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Stabaek half-time and goal-timing data (last 19 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 44% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 42% of games.
Brann half-time and goal-timing data (last 19 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in away games; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stabaek 47% versus Brann 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stabaek 58% | Brann 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stabaek 1.17 xG and Brann 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stabaek attack 0.665 / defence 0.937 | Brann attack 0.942 / defence 1.006. League average goals — home 1.750 / away 1.305. Stabaek's attack rating of 0.665 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.17. Data: built from Stabaek's last 19 games and Brann's last 20.
Result probabilities: Stabaek 36% | Draw 28% | Brann 35%. Fair-value odds: Stabaek 2.75 | Draw 3.55 | Brann 2.82. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stabaek at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Brann (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stabaek if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.32 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 53%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Stabaek 33% (last 9 home games) | Brann 56% (last 9 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stabaek vs Brann | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 22 | Venue: Nadderud Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 17 September 2023 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stabaek 36% | Draw 28% | Brann 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Stabaek 1.17 / Brann 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Stabaek attack 0.665 / def 0.937 | Brann attack 0.942 / def 1.006 | league avg home 1.750 / away 1.305 • Poisson stance: Stabaek (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Stabaek xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Brann xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Stabaek vs Brann FAQs
What time does Stabaek vs Brann kick off?
Stabaek vs Brann kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 17 September 2023 at Nadderud Stadion.
What was the final score in Stabaek vs Brann?
Stabaek 0 - 1 Brann.
Where is Stabaek vs Brann being played?
The match is being played at Nadderud Stadion.
What competition is Stabaek vs Brann part of?
Stabaek vs Brann is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 22) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stabaek vs Brann?
Our statistical model gives Stabaek a 36% chance of winning, Brann a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Stabaek the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stabaek vs Brann?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Stabaek and Brann will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Stabaek vs Brann have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Stabaek's attack rating (0.67) and Brann's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Brann's attack (0.94x) against Stabaek's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from Stabaek's last 19 games and Brann's last 20 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stabaek Win
36%
2.75
28%
3.55
35%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Stabaek xG
Total xG
2.32
1.15
Brann xG
2.75
36%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
2.82
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
11%
8.70
11%
9.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 11.3 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.2 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.7 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Stabaek vs Brann Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Stabaek vs Brann?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Stabaek and Brann expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Stabaek and 1.15 for Brann, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Stabaek vs Brann?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 19 outings, Stabaek have picked up 0.84 PPG on a 4W 4D 11L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Brann's form line: 10W 3D 6L from 19 games, 1.74 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Brann are the form team by 0.90 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Stabaek.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Stabaek have posted 1.33 PPG from their last 9 home games (3W 3D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 0.84 PPG overall — Stabaek are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Brann have gone 3W 1D 5L from their last 9 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.74 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Brann's recent record.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Stabaek are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Brann are on 1.74 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 19 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stabaek
Blended
Brann
Blended
Stabaek (Home) vs Brann (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Stabaek
Blended
Brann
Blended
❓ Stabaek vs Brann Form FAQs
What form are Stabaek and Brann in coming into this match?
Stabaek have gone 4W 4D 11L in their last 19 games (0.84 PPG), while Brann have gone 10W 3D 6L in their last 19 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stabaek at home or Brann away?
Stabaek's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stabaek at home: 1.33 PPG; Brann away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2020 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent in our data was on 17 September 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Brann have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Brann won Brann 4-1 Stabaek on 16 May 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stabaek have gone 1W 0D 2L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Brann — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Stabaek
2
Draws
3
Brann
Recent Meetings
❓ Stabaek vs Brann H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Brann?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Stabaek have won 1, Brann have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stabaek and Brann last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 September 2023: Stabaek 0-1 Brann.
Who has won more matches between Stabaek and Brann?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Stabaek see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stabaek 33%, Brann 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Stabaek) and 56% (Brann).
On the defensive side: Stabaek keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Stabaek have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stabaek home games / Brann away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Stabaek vs Brann Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Stabaek and Brann matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Stabaek's recent matches and 56% of Brann's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Stabaek and Brann matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Stabaek's recent games and 56% of Brann's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stabaek and Brann matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 44% of Stabaek's recent matches and 100% of Brann's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Brann defy the odds to beat Stabaek 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brann beat Stabaek 0-1 at Nadderud Stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stabaek 1.17 xG and Brann 1.15 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Stabaek fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stabaek attack 0.67 / defence 0.94 against Brann attack 0.94 / defence 1.01, drawn from 19/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stabaek 36% | Draw 28% | Brann 35%, with Stabaek to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Brann win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stabaek 58%, Brann 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stabaek's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Brann's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Brann arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 0.84. That form edge translated into the three points. Stabaek (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Brann (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.