Stromsgodset 2-1 Rosenborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stromsgodset at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stromsgodset vs Rosenborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Stromsgodset host Rosenborg at Marienlyst Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 13 June 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stromsgodset stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Stromsgodset at Marienlyst Stadion this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Rosenborg have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Rosenborg's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Rosenborg are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Profile
Stromsgodset in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Rosenborg in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stromsgodset 63% versus Rosenborg 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Stromsgodset 67% | Rosenborg 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stromsgodset 1.47 xG and Rosenborg 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stromsgodset attack 1.021 / defence 1.094 | Rosenborg attack 1.070 / defence 0.913. League average goals — home 1.572 / away 1.244. Data: 34 Stromsgodset games / 37 Rosenborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stromsgodset 37% | Draw 27% | Rosenborg 36%. Fair-value odds: Stromsgodset 2.70 | Draw 3.70 | Rosenborg 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.47 / 1.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stromsgodset are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Rosenborg (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stromsgodset offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Stromsgodset 60% | Rosenborg 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stromsgodset vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Marienlyst Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Jun 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stromsgodset 37% | Draw 27% | Rosenborg 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Stromsgodset 1.47 / Rosenborg 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Stromsgodset attack 1.021 / def 1.094 | Rosenborg attack 1.070 / def 0.913 | league avg home 1.572 / away 1.244 • Poisson stance: Stromsgodset (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Stromsgodset xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Rosenborg xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stromsgodset vs Rosenborg kick off?
Stromsgodset vs Rosenborg kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 13 June 2021 at Marienlyst Stadion.
What was the final score in Stromsgodset vs Rosenborg?
Stromsgodset 2 - 1 Rosenborg.
Where is Stromsgodset vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at Marienlyst Stadion.
What competition is Stromsgodset vs Rosenborg part of?
Stromsgodset vs Rosenborg is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stromsgodset vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives Stromsgodset a 37% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Stromsgodset the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stromsgodset vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Stromsgodset and Rosenborg will score (BTTS).
Will Stromsgodset vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Rosenborg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Stromsgodset and Rosenborg in?
Stromsgodset (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Rosenborg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Stromsgodset's attack rating (1.02) and Rosenborg's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Rosenborg's attack versus Stromsgodset's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Stromsgodset Win
37%
2.72
27%
3.72
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Stromsgodset xG
Total xG
2.92
1.46
Rosenborg xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
23%
4.29
23%
4.33
Win to Nil
9%
11.68
8%
11.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.8 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.5 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.4 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stromsgodset vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Stromsgodset and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Stromsgodset and 1.46 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Stromsgodset vs Rosenborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Stromsgodset come into this having played 30 games, going 7W 10D 13L for 1.03 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-L.
On the other side, Rosenborg sit at 1.73 PPG from 30 outings (15W 7D 8L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-D across their last five.
Rosenborg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.70 PPG clear of Stromsgodset — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Stromsgodset's home form reads 3W 6D 6L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Rosenborg have taken 1.27 points per game from 15 outings (5W 4D 6L). That's a step down from their 1.73 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rosenborg's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Stromsgodset are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; Rosenborg are on 1.67 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stromsgodset have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stromsgodset
Current Season
Rosenborg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stromsgodset and Rosenborg in coming into this match?
Stromsgodset have gone 7W 10D 13L in their last 30 games (1.03 PPG), while Rosenborg have gone 15W 7D 8L in their last 30 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stromsgodset at home or Rosenborg away?
Rosenborg's away record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stromsgodset at home: 1.00 PPG; Rosenborg away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Stromsgodset or Rosenborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stromsgodset have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, Rosenborg in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 30 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Rosenborg go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Nov 2025, when Rosenborg won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stromsgodset's record when hosting Rosenborg specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Stromsgodset
1
Draws
5
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Rosenborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Stromsgodset have won 4, Rosenborg have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stromsgodset and Rosenborg last play each other?
They last met on 30 November 2025, when Rosenborg 6-0 Stromsgodset.
Who has won more matches between Stromsgodset and Rosenborg?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stromsgodset 60%, Rosenborg 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Stromsgodset) and 53% (Rosenborg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 13% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg in 33%; Stromsgodset have failed to score in 33% of games; Rosenborg in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stromsgodset home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stromsgodset play Rosenborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Stromsgodset's recent matches and 40% of Rosenborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stromsgodset vs Rosenborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Stromsgodset's matches and 53% of Rosenborg's.
Do Stromsgodset and Rosenborg tend to score early?
Stromsgodset have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Rosenborg in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Stromsgodset edge out Rosenborg 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stromsgodset beat Rosenborg 2-1 at Marienlyst Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stromsgodset 1.47 xG and Rosenborg 1.46 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stromsgodset attack 1.02 / defence 1.09 against Rosenborg attack 1.07 / defence 0.91, drawn from 34/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stromsgodset 37% | Draw 27% | Rosenborg 36%, with Stromsgodset to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stromsgodset 67%, Rosenborg 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stromsgodset's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Rosenborg's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.03. Form was overturned, with Stromsgodset winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.