Sandefjord vs Viking – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sandefjord at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sandefjord vs Viking fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 7 as Sandefjord welcome Viking to Sandefjord Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 9 May 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sandefjord stand at 2W 6D 2L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D D D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Sandefjord at Sandefjord Arena this season: 1W 6D 3L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Viking have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Viking have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Sandefjord) versus 1.50 (Viking). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Sandefjord in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Viking in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sandefjord 47% versus Viking 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sandefjord 50% | Viking 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 1.60 xG and Viking 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 0.871 / defence 0.986 | Viking attack 0.999 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 1.798 / away 1.349. Data: 30 Sandefjord games / 30 Viking games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Sandefjord 43% | Draw 27% | Viking 31%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Viking 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.60 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sandefjord as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sandefjord offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.93 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sandefjord 50% | Viking 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandefjord vs Viking | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Sandefjord Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 9 May 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandefjord 43% | Draw 27% | Viking 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Sandefjord 1.60 / Viking 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Sandefjord attack 0.871 / def 0.986 | Viking attack 0.999 / def 1.025 | league avg home 1.798 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Sandefjord (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Sandefjord xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Viking xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandefjord vs Viking kick off?
Sandefjord vs Viking kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 9 May 2021 at Sandefjord Arena.
Where is Sandefjord vs Viking being played?
The match is being played at Sandefjord Arena.
What competition is Sandefjord vs Viking part of?
Sandefjord vs Viking is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sandefjord vs Viking?
Our statistical model gives Sandefjord a 43% chance of winning, Viking a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sandefjord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs Viking?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Sandefjord and Viking will score (BTTS).
Will Sandefjord vs Viking have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Viking?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sandefjord and Viking in?
Sandefjord (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-D-D. Viking (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sandefjord's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Viking's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.60. The same calculation in reverse, Viking's attack versus Sandefjord's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandefjord Win
43%
2.34
27%
3.74
31%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Sandefjord xG
Total xG
2.93
1.33
Viking xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
3.28
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
20%
4.98
Win to Nil
11%
8.84
6%
16.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.1 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.3 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.1 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandefjord vs Viking?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Sandefjord and Viking expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Sandefjord and 1.33 for Viking, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandefjord vs Viking?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sandefjord come into this having played 30 games, going 9W 8D 13L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-D-D.
On the other side, Viking sit at 1.47 PPG from 30 outings (12W 8D 10L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sandefjord on 1.17 PPG, Viking on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Sandefjord's home form reads 3W 7D 5L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.07 PPG return.
Away from home, Viking have taken 1.27 points per game from 15 outings (5W 4D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
Sandefjord are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Viking are on 1.80 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Viking in 60%.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandefjord
Current Season
Viking
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandefjord and Viking in coming into this match?
Sandefjord have gone 9W 8D 13L in their last 30 games (1.17 PPG), while Viking have gone 12W 8D 10L in their last 30 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandefjord at home or Viking away?
Viking's away record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandefjord at home: 1.07 PPG; Viking away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Sandefjord or Viking been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sandefjord have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Viking in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Viking have taken the last 7 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 May 2024, when Viking won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sandefjord's record when hosting Viking specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Sandefjord
1
Draws
8
Viking
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Viking?
From 10 meetings on record, Sandefjord have won 1, Viking have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sandefjord and Viking last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Viking 2-1 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between Sandefjord and Viking?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sandefjord 40%, Viking 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 47% for Sandefjord and 73% for Viking. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sandefjord keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Sandefjord have failed to score in 47% of games; Viking in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandefjord home games / Viking away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandefjord play Viking?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Sandefjord's recent matches and 53% of Viking's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sandefjord vs Viking usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Sandefjord's matches and 73% of Viking's.
Do Sandefjord and Viking tend to score early?
Sandefjord have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Viking in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sandefjord's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sandefjord and Viking finished level at 0-0 at Sandefjord Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 1.60 xG and Viking 1.33 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sandefjord fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Viking landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 0.87 / defence 0.99 against Viking attack 1.00 / defence 1.02, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 43% | Draw 27% | Viking 31%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 50%, Viking 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandefjord's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Viking's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sandefjord 1.17 PPG, Viking 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sandefjord (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Viking (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.