Stabaek vs Kristiansund BK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stabaek at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stabaek vs Kristiansund BK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Kristiansund BK travel to Nadderud Stadion to take on Stabaek. The game is scheduled for Sunday 9 May 2021, 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Stabaek have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W D L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Stabaek have posted 3W 4D 3L at Nadderud Stadion — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kristiansund BK stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Kristiansund BK's away record: 4W 5D 1L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Stabaek 1.40 PPG, Kristiansund BK 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Stabaek, 0 for Kristiansund BK and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2020, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Stabaek in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Kristiansund BK in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 87% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Stabaek 50% and Kristiansund BK 83% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stabaek 53% | Kristiansund BK 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stabaek 1.60 xG and Kristiansund BK 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stabaek attack 0.944 / defence 0.992 | Kristiansund BK attack 1.034 / defence 0.944. League average goals — home 1.798 / away 1.349. Data: 30 Stabaek games / 30 Kristiansund BK games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Stabaek 42% | Draw 27% | Kristiansund BK 32%. Fair-value odds: Stabaek 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Kristiansund BK 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.60 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stabaek at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stabaek offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.98 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Stabaek 50% | Kristiansund BK 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stabaek vs Kristiansund BK | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Nadderud Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 9 May 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stabaek 42% | Draw 27% | Kristiansund BK 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG Stabaek 1.60 / Kristiansund BK 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Stabaek attack 0.944 / def 0.992 | Kristiansund BK attack 1.034 / def 0.944 | league avg home 1.798 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Stabaek (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Stabaek xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Kristiansund BK xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stabaek vs Kristiansund BK kick off?
Stabaek vs Kristiansund BK kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 9 May 2021 at Nadderud Stadion.
Where is Stabaek vs Kristiansund BK being played?
The match is being played at Nadderud Stadion.
What competition is Stabaek vs Kristiansund BK part of?
Stabaek vs Kristiansund BK is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stabaek vs Kristiansund BK?
Our statistical model gives Stabaek a 42% chance of winning, Kristiansund BK a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Stabaek the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stabaek vs Kristiansund BK?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Stabaek and Kristiansund BK will score (BTTS).
Will Stabaek vs Kristiansund BK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Kristiansund BK?
Record (2 meetings): Stabaek 1W | Draws 1 | Kristiansund BK 0W.
What form are Stabaek and Kristiansund BK in?
Stabaek (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-D-W. Kristiansund BK (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Stabaek's attack at 0.94x the league average against Kristiansund BK's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.60 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kristiansund BK's attack versus Stabaek's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Stabaek Win
42%
2.41
27%
3.76
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Stabaek xG
Total xG
2.98
1.38
Kristiansund BK xG
2.41
42%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
20%
4.96
Win to Nil
10%
9.61
6%
15.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 7.0 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.2 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.0 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stabaek vs Kristiansund BK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Stabaek and Kristiansund BK expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Stabaek and 1.38 for Kristiansund BK, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Stabaek vs Kristiansund BK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Stabaek's recent record stands at 9W 12D 9L from 30 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-W in the last five.
Kristiansund BK, meanwhile, have gone 12W 12D 6L across 30 games — 1.60 PPG, with W-D-W-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stabaek on 1.30 PPG, Kristiansund BK on 1.60. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Stabaek have managed 5W 6D 4L from 15 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kristiansund BK's away record stands at 5W 8D 2L across 15 trips, a 1.53 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Stabaek are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Kristiansund BK are on 1.90 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kristiansund BK in 83%.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stabaek
Current Season
Kristiansund BK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stabaek and Kristiansund BK in coming into this match?
Stabaek have gone 9W 12D 9L in their last 30 games (1.30 PPG), while Kristiansund BK have gone 12W 12D 6L in their last 30 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stabaek at home or Kristiansund BK away?
Kristiansund BK's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stabaek at home: 1.40 PPG; Kristiansund BK away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Stabaek or Kristiansund BK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stabaek have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Kristiansund BK in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stabaek and Kristiansund BK runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 November 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Aug 2021, when Kristiansund BK won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stabaek's record when hosting Kristiansund BK specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Stabaek
1
Draws
1
Kristiansund BK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Kristiansund BK?
From 4 meetings on record, Stabaek have won 2, Kristiansund BK have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stabaek and Kristiansund BK last play each other?
They last met on 21 November 2021, when Stabaek 3-0 Kristiansund BK.
Who has won more matches between Stabaek and Kristiansund BK?
Stabaek have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stabaek are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Kristiansund BK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stabaek 40%, Kristiansund BK 87% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Stabaek) and 67% (Kristiansund BK).
On the defensive side: Stabaek keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Stabaek have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stabaek home games / Kristiansund BK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stabaek play Kristiansund BK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Stabaek's games and 87% of Kristiansund BK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stabaek vs Kristiansund BK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Stabaek's recent games and 67% of Kristiansund BK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stabaek and Kristiansund BK tend to score early?
Stabaek have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Kristiansund BK in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Stabaek's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stabaek and Kristiansund BK finished level at 0-0 at Nadderud Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stabaek 1.60 xG and Kristiansund BK 1.38 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Stabaek fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Kristiansund BK landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stabaek attack 0.94 / defence 0.99 against Kristiansund BK attack 1.03 / defence 0.94, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stabaek 42% | Draw 27% | Kristiansund BK 32%, with Stabaek to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stabaek 53%, Kristiansund BK 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stabaek's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stabaek 1.30 PPG, Kristiansund BK 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Stabaek (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Kristiansund BK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.