Stromsgodset 0-0 ODD Ballklubb – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stromsgodset at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
ODD Ballklubb make the trip to Marienlyst Stadion to face Stromsgodset in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Saturday 9 July 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Stromsgodset have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Stromsgodset, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stromsgodset's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Marienlyst Stadion this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
ODD Ballklubb's overall Eliteserien record this term: 4W 0D 6L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for ODD Ballklubb, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, ODD Ballklubb have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Stromsgodset's favour (1.70 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Stromsgodset, who have won 4 of the last 4 meetings against ODD Ballklubb — a 0D 0W return for the visitors.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2021, ended 1–0 with Stromsgodset winning.
The historical record gives Stromsgodset a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Data
Stromsgodset goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
ODD Ballklubb goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stromsgodset 49% versus ODD Ballklubb 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stromsgodset 60% | ODD Ballklubb 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stromsgodset 1.62 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stromsgodset attack 1.257 / defence 1.035 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.763 / defence 0.812. League average goals — home 1.585 / away 1.393. Stromsgodset carry an above-average attack strength of 1.257 — their λ of 1.62 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 43 Stromsgodset games / 43 ODD Ballklubb games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stromsgodset 49% | Draw 25% | ODD Ballklubb 26%. Fair-value odds: Stromsgodset 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | ODD Ballklubb 3.85. Stromsgodset hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Stromsgodset as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stromsgodset if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Stromsgodset 50% | ODD Ballklubb 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Marienlyst Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Jul 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stromsgodset 49% | Draw 25% | ODD Ballklubb 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Stromsgodset 1.62 / ODD Ballklubb 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Stromsgodset attack 1.257 / def 1.035 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.763 / def 0.812 | league avg home 1.585 / away 1.393 • Poisson stance: Stromsgodset (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Stromsgodset xG
Expected Goals
1.10
ODD Ballklubb xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb kick off?
Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 9 July 2022 at Marienlyst Stadion.
What was the final score in Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb?
Stromsgodset 0 - 0 ODD Ballklubb.
Where is Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb being played?
The match is being played at Marienlyst Stadion.
What competition is Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb part of?
Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our statistical model gives Stromsgodset a 49% chance of winning, ODD Ballklubb a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Stromsgodset the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Stromsgodset and ODD Ballklubb will score (BTTS).
Will Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and ODD Ballklubb?
Record (4 meetings): Stromsgodset 4W | Draws 0 | ODD Ballklubb 0W.
What form are Stromsgodset and ODD Ballklubb in?
Stromsgodset (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Stromsgodset's attack at 1.26x the league average against ODD Ballklubb's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — ODD Ballklubb's attack (0.76x) against Stromsgodset's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stromsgodset Win
49%
2.02
25%
4.04
26%
3.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Stromsgodset xG
Total xG
2.72
1.10
ODD Ballklubb xG
2.02
49%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
3.86
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
20%
5.04
Win to Nil
16%
6.09
5%
19.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 11.7 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Stromsgodset and ODD Ballklubb expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Stromsgodset and 1.10 for ODD Ballklubb, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Stromsgodset's recent record stands at 15W 11D 17L from 43 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Stromsgodset is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
ODD Ballklubb, meanwhile, have gone 14W 9D 20L across 43 games — 1.19 PPG, with L-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for ODD Ballklubb is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Stromsgodset against 1.19 for ODD Ballklubb. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Stromsgodset have managed 12W 4D 5L from 21 games — 1.90 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.30 PPG overall — Stromsgodset are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
ODD Ballklubb's away record stands at 6W 5D 10L across 21 trips, a 1.10 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stromsgodset come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Stromsgodset are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; ODD Ballklubb are on 1.35 scored and 1.79 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stromsgodset
Blended
ODD Ballklubb
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stromsgodset and ODD Ballklubb in coming into this match?
Stromsgodset have gone 15W 11D 17L in their last 43 games (1.30 PPG), while ODD Ballklubb have gone 14W 9D 20L in their last 43 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stromsgodset at home or ODD Ballklubb away?
Stromsgodset's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stromsgodset at home: 1.90 PPG; ODD Ballklubb away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since June 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 July 2024, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: ODD Ballklubb won 5-1 on 6 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stromsgodset have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against ODD Ballklubb — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Stromsgodset
3
Draws
2
ODD Ballklubb
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and ODD Ballklubb?
From 10 meetings on record, Stromsgodset have won 5, ODD Ballklubb have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stromsgodset and ODD Ballklubb last play each other?
They last met on 28 July 2024, when ODD Ballklubb 2-0 Stromsgodset.
Who has won more matches between Stromsgodset and ODD Ballklubb?
Stromsgodset have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
ODD Ballklubb see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stromsgodset 57%, ODD Ballklubb 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for Stromsgodset and 48% for ODD Ballklubb. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stromsgodset keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; ODD Ballklubb in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stromsgodset home games / ODD Ballklubb away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stromsgodset play ODD Ballklubb?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Stromsgodset's recent matches and 43% of ODD Ballklubb's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of Stromsgodset's matches and 48% of ODD Ballklubb's.
Do Stromsgodset and ODD Ballklubb tend to score early?
Stromsgodset have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, ODD Ballklubb in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Stromsgodset's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stromsgodset and ODD Ballklubb finished level at 0-0 at Marienlyst Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stromsgodset 1.62 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.10 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Stromsgodset fell 1.6 short of their projected output. ODD Ballklubb landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stromsgodset attack 1.26 / defence 1.03 against ODD Ballklubb attack 0.76 / defence 0.81, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stromsgodset 49% | Draw 25% | ODD Ballklubb 26%, with Stromsgodset to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stromsgodset 60%, ODD Ballklubb 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stromsgodset's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stromsgodset 1.30 PPG, ODD Ballklubb 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.19 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.