Aalesund 1-0 Stromsgodset – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stromsgodset at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Aalesund vs Stromsgodset encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Stromsgodset travel to Color Line Stadion to take on Aalesund. The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 July 2022, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Aalesund stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W D D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Aalesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Aalesund's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 1L across 5 games at Color Line Stadion this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Stromsgodset have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.60. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Stromsgodset, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stromsgodset's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Stromsgodset — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Aalesund have won 0, Stromsgodset 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Dec 2020, ended 1–4 with Stromsgodset winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Aalesund trading profile (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Stromsgodset trading profile (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aalesund 50% versus Stromsgodset 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aalesund 50% | Stromsgodset 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aalesund 1.42 xG and Stromsgodset 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aalesund attack 0.855 / defence 1.193 | Stromsgodset attack 0.921 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.589 / away 1.412. Data: 12 Aalesund games / 42 Stromsgodset games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aalesund 35% | Draw 24% | Stromsgodset 41%. Fair-value odds: Aalesund 2.86 | Draw 4.17 | Stromsgodset 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.42 / 1.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Stromsgodset as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stromsgodset offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.97 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Aalesund 60% | Stromsgodset 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aalesund vs Stromsgodset | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Color Line Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Jul 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aalesund 35% | Draw 24% | Stromsgodset 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Aalesund 1.42 / Stromsgodset 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Aalesund attack 0.855 / def 1.193 | Stromsgodset attack 0.921 / def 1.042 | league avg home 1.589 / away 1.412 • Poisson stance: Stromsgodset (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Aalesund xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Stromsgodset xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aalesund vs Stromsgodset kick off?
Aalesund vs Stromsgodset kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 3 July 2022 at Color Line Stadion.
What was the final score in Aalesund vs Stromsgodset?
Aalesund 1 - 0 Stromsgodset.
Where is Aalesund vs Stromsgodset being played?
The match is being played at Color Line Stadion.
What competition is Aalesund vs Stromsgodset part of?
Aalesund vs Stromsgodset is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Aalesund vs Stromsgodset?
Our statistical model gives Aalesund a 35% chance of winning, Stromsgodset a 41% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Stromsgodset the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aalesund vs Stromsgodset?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Aalesund and Stromsgodset will score (BTTS).
Will Aalesund vs Stromsgodset have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aalesund and Stromsgodset?
Record (2 meetings): Aalesund 0W | Draws 1 | Stromsgodset 1W.
What form are Aalesund and Stromsgodset in?
Aalesund (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-D-D-L. Stromsgodset (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Aalesund's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Stromsgodset's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. The same calculation in reverse, Stromsgodset's attack versus Aalesund's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Stromsgodset Win
35%
2.87
24%
4.10
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Aalesund xG
Total xG
2.97
1.55
Stromsgodset xG
2.87
35%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
21%
4.72
24%
4.12
Win to Nil
7%
13.56
10%
10.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 8.0 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.3 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.0 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aalesund vs Stromsgodset?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Aalesund and Stromsgodset expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Aalesund and 1.55 for Stromsgodset, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Aalesund vs Stromsgodset?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Aalesund come into this having played 12 games, going 4W 4D 4L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-D-L. The sample for Aalesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Stromsgodset sit at 1.67 PPG from 12 outings (6W 2D 4L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Stromsgodset is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Aalesund on 1.33 PPG, Stromsgodset on 1.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Aalesund's home form reads 2W 2D 1L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Stromsgodset have taken 1.60 points per game from 5 outings (2W 2D 1L).
Goals in Recent Form
Aalesund are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Stromsgodset are on 1.67 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Defensively: Stromsgodset in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aalesund
Blended
Stromsgodset
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aalesund and Stromsgodset in coming into this match?
Aalesund have gone 4W 4D 4L in their last 12 games (1.33 PPG), while Stromsgodset have gone 6W 2D 4L in their last 12 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aalesund at home or Stromsgodset away?
Aalesund's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aalesund at home: 1.60 PPG; Stromsgodset away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Aalesund or Stromsgodset been keeping clean sheets recently?
Aalesund have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Stromsgodset in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 July 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Dec 2020, when Stromsgodset won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Aalesund's record when hosting Stromsgodset specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Aalesund
1
Draws
2
Stromsgodset
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aalesund and Stromsgodset?
From 6 meetings on record, Aalesund have won 3, Stromsgodset have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Aalesund and Stromsgodset last play each other?
They last met on 30 July 2023, when Aalesund 1-0 Stromsgodset.
Who has won more matches between Aalesund and Stromsgodset?
Aalesund have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Aalesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Aalesund 60%, Stromsgodset 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Aalesund and 60% for Stromsgodset. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stromsgodset in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aalesund home games / Stromsgodset away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aalesund play Stromsgodset?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Aalesund's recent matches and 40% of Stromsgodset's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Aalesund vs Stromsgodset usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Aalesund's matches and 60% of Stromsgodset's.
Do Aalesund and Stromsgodset tend to score early?
Aalesund have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Stromsgodset in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Aalesund defy the odds to beat Stromsgodset 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aalesund beat Stromsgodset 1-0 at Color Line Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aalesund 1.42 xG and Stromsgodset 1.55 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Stromsgodset landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aalesund attack 0.85 / defence 1.19 against Stromsgodset attack 0.92 / defence 1.04, drawn from 12/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aalesund 35% | Draw 24% | Stromsgodset 41%, with Stromsgodset to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Aalesund win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aalesund 50%, Stromsgodset 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aalesund's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Stromsgodset's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Aalesund 1.33 PPG, Stromsgodset 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Aalesund win broke the near-deadlock. Aalesund (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.