Haugesund 1-1 Ham-Kam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Haugesund at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Haugesund vs Ham-Kam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Haugesund host Ham-Kam at Haugesund Sparebank Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 10 July 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Haugesund stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haugesund at Haugesund Sparebank Arena this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Ham-Kam have recorded 3W 6D 1L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ham-Kam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ham-Kam's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 1L across 5 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Haugesund 1.20 PPG, Ham-Kam 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Data
Haugesund trading profile (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Ham-Kam trading profile (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Haugesund 58% and Ham-Kam 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haugesund 58% | Ham-Kam 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 1.93 xG and Ham-Kam 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 1.104 / defence 1.238 | Ham-Kam attack 0.925 / defence 1.089. League average goals — home 1.608 / away 1.382. Data: 43 Haugesund games / 12 Ham-Kam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haugesund 46% | Draw 22% | Ham-Kam 32%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 2.17 | Draw 4.55 | Ham-Kam 3.12. Haugesund hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.51. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.51 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.93 / 1.58) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Haugesund are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Haugesund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.51 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate: Haugesund 70% | Ham-Kam 100% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs Ham-Kam | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Haugesund Sparebank Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Jul 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 46% | Draw 22% | Ham-Kam 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 68% | xG Haugesund 1.93 / Ham-Kam 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 1.104 / def 1.238 | Ham-Kam attack 0.925 / def 1.089 | league avg home 1.608 / away 1.382 • Poisson stance: Haugesund (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Ham-Kam xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haugesund vs Ham-Kam kick off?
Haugesund vs Ham-Kam kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 10 July 2022 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What was the final score in Haugesund vs Ham-Kam?
Haugesund 1 - 1 Ham-Kam.
Where is Haugesund vs Ham-Kam being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What competition is Haugesund vs Ham-Kam part of?
Haugesund vs Ham-Kam is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs Ham-Kam?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 46% chance of winning, Ham-Kam a 32% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Haugesund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Ham-Kam?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Haugesund and Ham-Kam will score (BTTS).
Will Haugesund vs Ham-Kam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Ham-Kam?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Haugesund and Ham-Kam in?
Haugesund (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-D-W-L. Ham-Kam (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Haugesund's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Ham-Kam's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.93. The same calculation in reverse, Ham-Kam's attack versus Haugesund's defence, projects 1.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Haugesund Win
46%
2.17
22%
4.56
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Haugesund xG
Total xG
3.51
1.58
Ham-Kam xG
2.17
46%
Home win
4.56
22%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.12
Clean Sheet
21%
4.86
14%
6.90
Win to Nil
9%
10.53
5%
21.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 9.1 | 7.2 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.8 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.7 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs Ham-Kam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Haugesund and Ham-Kam expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Haugesund and 1.58 for Ham-Kam, a combined total of 3.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs Ham-Kam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Haugesund come into this having played 12 games, going 3W 3D 6L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-W-L. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ham-Kam sit at 1.33 PPG from 12 outings (3W 7D 2L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Ham-Kam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Haugesund on 1.00 PPG, Ham-Kam on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Haugesund's home form reads 2W 1D 2L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Ham-Kam have taken 1.20 points per game from 5 outings (1W 3D 1L).
Goals in Recent Form
Haugesund are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Ham-Kam are on 1.42 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ham-Kam in 75%.
Last 12 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Blended
Ham-Kam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haugesund and Ham-Kam in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 3W 3D 6L in their last 12 games (1.00 PPG), while Ham-Kam have gone 3W 7D 2L in their last 12 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haugesund at home or Ham-Kam away?
Haugesund's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haugesund at home: 1.40 PPG; Ham-Kam away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 23 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Ham-Kam go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Nov 2025, when Ham-Kam won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Haugesund's record when hosting Ham-Kam specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Haugesund
2
Draws
4
Ham-Kam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Ham-Kam?
From 8 meetings on record, Haugesund have won 2, Ham-Kam have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and Ham-Kam last play each other?
They last met on 23 November 2025, when Ham-Kam 5-0 Haugesund.
Who has won more matches between Haugesund and Ham-Kam?
Ham-Kam have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Haugesund at 60%, Ham-Kam at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Haugesund and 60% for Ham-Kam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / Ham-Kam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haugesund play Ham-Kam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Haugesund's games and 100% of Ham-Kam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Haugesund vs Ham-Kam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Haugesund's matches and 60% of Ham-Kam's.
Do Haugesund and Ham-Kam tend to score early?
Haugesund have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Ham-Kam in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Haugesund and Ham-Kam share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Haugesund Sparebank Arena, Regular Season - 13, as Haugesund and Ham-Kam drew 1-1 in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 1.93 xG and Ham-Kam 1.58 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Haugesund fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 1.10 / defence 1.24 against Ham-Kam attack 0.93 / defence 1.09, drawn from 43/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 46% | Draw 22% | Ham-Kam 32%, with Haugesund to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 58%, Ham-Kam 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Ham-Kam's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Haugesund 1.00 PPG, Ham-Kam 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Haugesund (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.