Stromsgodset 1-1 Ham-Kam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stromsgodset at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stromsgodset vs Ham-Kam encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Stromsgodset host Ham-Kam at Marienlyst Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 24 July 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Stromsgodset — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W L W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Stromsgodset, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Marienlyst Stadion, Stromsgodset have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Marienlyst Stadion.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ham-Kam stand at 2W 6D 2L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ham-Kam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ham-Kam's away record: 1W 4D 1L from 6 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.17 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Stromsgodset are in the better shape of the two on current Eliteserien data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Profile
Stromsgodset in-play tendencies (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Ham-Kam in-play tendencies (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stromsgodset 36% versus Ham-Kam 71%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stromsgodset 64% | Ham-Kam 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stromsgodset 1.80 xG and Ham-Kam 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stromsgodset attack 1.131 / defence 0.963 | Ham-Kam attack 0.884 / defence 0.982. League average goals — home 1.621 / away 1.338. Data: 44 Stromsgodset games / 14 Ham-Kam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stromsgodset 53% | Draw 23% | Ham-Kam 24%. Fair-value odds: Stromsgodset 1.89 | Draw 4.35 | Ham-Kam 4.17. Stromsgodset hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stromsgodset at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stromsgodset offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.94 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Stromsgodset 40% | Ham-Kam 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stromsgodset vs Ham-Kam | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Marienlyst Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Jul 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stromsgodset 53% | Draw 23% | Ham-Kam 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 57% | xG Stromsgodset 1.80 / Ham-Kam 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Stromsgodset attack 1.131 / def 0.963 | Ham-Kam attack 0.884 / def 0.982 | league avg home 1.621 / away 1.338 • Poisson stance: Stromsgodset (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Stromsgodset xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Ham-Kam xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stromsgodset vs Ham-Kam kick off?
Stromsgodset vs Ham-Kam kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 24 July 2022 at Marienlyst Stadion.
What was the final score in Stromsgodset vs Ham-Kam?
Stromsgodset 1 - 1 Ham-Kam.
Where is Stromsgodset vs Ham-Kam being played?
The match is being played at Marienlyst Stadion.
What competition is Stromsgodset vs Ham-Kam part of?
Stromsgodset vs Ham-Kam is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stromsgodset vs Ham-Kam?
Our statistical model gives Stromsgodset a 53% chance of winning, Ham-Kam a 24% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Stromsgodset the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stromsgodset vs Ham-Kam?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Stromsgodset and Ham-Kam will score (BTTS).
Will Stromsgodset vs Ham-Kam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Ham-Kam?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Stromsgodset and Ham-Kam in?
Stromsgodset (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-L-D. Ham-Kam (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Stromsgodset's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Ham-Kam's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.80. The same calculation in reverse, Ham-Kam's attack versus Stromsgodset's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stromsgodset Win
53%
1.89
23%
4.32
24%
4.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Stromsgodset xG
Total xG
2.94
1.14
Ham-Kam xG
1.89
53%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
4.16
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
17%
6.05
Win to Nil
17%
5.91
4%
25.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 10.8 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stromsgodset vs Ham-Kam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Stromsgodset and Ham-Kam expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Stromsgodset and 1.14 for Ham-Kam, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Stromsgodset vs Ham-Kam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Stromsgodset come into this having played 14 games, going 6W 3D 5L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-D. The sample for Stromsgodset is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ham-Kam sit at 1.21 PPG from 14 outings (3W 8D 3L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Ham-Kam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stromsgodset on 1.50 PPG, Ham-Kam on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Stromsgodset's home form reads 4W 1D 1L across 6 games on their own ground, a 2.17 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — Stromsgodset are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Ham-Kam have taken 1.17 points per game from 6 outings (1W 4D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stromsgodset come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Stromsgodset are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Ham-Kam are on 1.29 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ham-Kam in 71%.
Defensively: Stromsgodset have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stromsgodset
Blended
Ham-Kam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stromsgodset and Ham-Kam in coming into this match?
Stromsgodset have gone 6W 3D 5L in their last 14 games (1.50 PPG), while Ham-Kam have gone 3W 8D 3L in their last 14 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stromsgodset at home or Ham-Kam away?
Stromsgodset's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stromsgodset at home: 2.17 PPG; Ham-Kam away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Stromsgodset or Ham-Kam been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stromsgodset have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Ham-Kam in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 14 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 May 2025, when Ham-Kam won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stromsgodset's record when hosting Ham-Kam specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Stromsgodset
3
Draws
3
Ham-Kam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Ham-Kam?
From 8 meetings on record, Stromsgodset have won 2, Ham-Kam have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stromsgodset and Ham-Kam last play each other?
They last met on 14 September 2025, when Ham-Kam 1-2 Stromsgodset.
Who has won more matches between Stromsgodset and Ham-Kam?
Ham-Kam have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Stromsgodset at 33%, Ham-Kam at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Stromsgodset and 50% for Ham-Kam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stromsgodset keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Stromsgodset have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stromsgodset home games / Ham-Kam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stromsgodset play Ham-Kam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Stromsgodset's games and 100% of Ham-Kam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stromsgodset vs Ham-Kam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Stromsgodset's matches and 50% of Ham-Kam's.
Do Stromsgodset and Ham-Kam tend to score early?
Stromsgodset have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Ham-Kam in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stromsgodset and Ham-Kam share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stromsgodset and Ham-Kam finished level at 1-1 at Marienlyst Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stromsgodset 1.80 xG and Ham-Kam 1.14 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Stromsgodset fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stromsgodset attack 1.13 / defence 0.96 against Ham-Kam attack 0.88 / defence 0.98, drawn from 44/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stromsgodset 53% | Draw 23% | Ham-Kam 24%, with Stromsgodset to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stromsgodset 64%, Ham-Kam 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stromsgodset's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Ham-Kam's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stromsgodset 1.50 PPG, Ham-Kam 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.