Lillestrom 0-1 Viking – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lillestrom at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lillestrom vs Viking encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Åråsen Stadion plays host to Lillestrom versus Viking in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Sunday 10 July 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Lillestrom (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Lillestrom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Lillestrom have posted 9W 1D 0L at Åråsen Stadion — 2.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Åråsen Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.30 — Lillestrom are significantly better at Åråsen Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Viking's overall Eliteserien record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D L L L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Viking, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Viking's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Lillestrom. A 1.00 PPG lead over Viking (2.30 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Lillestrom 0W, Viking 2W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2021, ended 1–5 with Viking winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Lillestrom — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Viking — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lillestrom 60% and Viking 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lillestrom 60% | Viking 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lillestrom 2.15 xG and Viking 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lillestrom attack 1.139 / defence 0.591 | Viking attack 1.141 / defence 1.205. League average goals — home 1.566 / away 1.381. Viking bring a strong defensive rating of 1.205 — this is suppressing Lillestrom's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Lillestrom's defence rating of 0.591 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 Lillestrom games / 44 Viking games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lillestrom 65% | Draw 20% | Viking 15%. Fair-value odds: Lillestrom 1.54 | Draw 5.00 | Viking 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Lillestrom (65%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lillestrom as the most likely outcome at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.08 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Lillestrom 20% | Viking 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lillestrom vs Viking | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Åråsen Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Jul 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lillestrom 65% | Draw 20% | Viking 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 54% | xG Lillestrom 2.15 / Viking 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Lillestrom attack 1.139 / def 0.591 | Viking attack 1.141 / def 1.205 | league avg home 1.566 / away 1.381 • Poisson stance: Lillestrom (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.15
Lillestrom xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Viking xG
54%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lillestrom vs Viking kick off?
Lillestrom vs Viking kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 10 July 2022 at Åråsen Stadion.
What was the final score in Lillestrom vs Viking?
Lillestrom 0 - 1 Viking.
Where is Lillestrom vs Viking being played?
The match is being played at Åråsen Stadion.
What competition is Lillestrom vs Viking part of?
Lillestrom vs Viking is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Lillestrom vs Viking?
Our statistical model gives Lillestrom a 65% chance of winning, Viking a 15% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Lillestrom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lillestrom vs Viking?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Lillestrom and Viking will score (BTTS).
Will Lillestrom vs Viking have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Viking?
Record (2 meetings): Lillestrom 0W | Draws 0 | Viking 2W.
What form are Lillestrom and Viking in?
Lillestrom (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. Viking (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Lillestrom's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Viking's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.15. Flip it around — Viking's attack (1.14x) against Lillestrom's defence (0.59x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 43/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 10.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lillestrom Win
65%
1.54
20%
5.02
15%
6.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.15
Lillestrom xG
Total xG
3.08
0.93
Viking xG
1.54
65%
Home win
5.02
20%
Draw
6.65
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
12%
8.57
Win to Nil
26%
3.90
2%
57.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.9 | 9.2 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.6 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lillestrom vs Viking?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Lillestrom and Viking expected to score?
The model projects 2.15 expected goals for Lillestrom and 0.93 for Viking, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Lillestrom vs Viking?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lillestrom's recent record stands at 23W 10D 10L from 43 games, a 1.84 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Lillestrom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Viking, meanwhile, have gone 22W 10D 11L across 43 games — 1.77 PPG, with D-L-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Viking is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.84 PPG for Lillestrom against 1.77 for Viking. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Lillestrom have managed 14W 3D 4L from 21 games — 2.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Viking's away record stands at 10W 4D 7L across 21 trips, a 1.62 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lillestrom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Lillestrom are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Viking are on 1.91 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lillestrom have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Viking in 72%.
Last 43 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lillestrom
Blended
Viking
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lillestrom and Viking in coming into this match?
Lillestrom have gone 23W 10D 10L in their last 43 games (1.84 PPG), while Viking have gone 22W 10D 11L in their last 43 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lillestrom at home or Viking away?
Lillestrom's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lillestrom at home: 2.14 PPG; Viking away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Lillestrom or Viking been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lillestrom have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Viking in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 22 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Viking go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Viking won 5-1 on 23 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lillestrom have gone 0W 0D 5L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Viking — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Lillestrom
0
Draws
7
Viking
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Viking?
From 9 meetings on record, Lillestrom have won 2, Viking have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lillestrom and Viking last play each other?
They last met on 22 July 2026, when Lillestrom 1-2 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Lillestrom and Viking?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lillestrom see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lillestrom 38%, Viking 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Lillestrom) and 67% (Viking).
On the defensive side: Lillestrom keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lillestrom home games / Viking away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lillestrom play Viking?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Lillestrom's recent matches and 67% of Viking's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lillestrom vs Viking usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Lillestrom's recent games and 67% of Viking's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lillestrom and Viking tend to score early?
Lillestrom have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Viking in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Viking defy the odds to beat Lillestrom 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking beat Lillestrom 0-1 at Åråsen Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lillestrom 2.15 xG and Viking 0.93 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Lillestrom fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lillestrom attack 1.14 / defence 0.59 against Viking attack 1.14 / defence 1.21, drawn from 43/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lillestrom 65% | Draw 20% | Viking 15%, with Lillestrom to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a Viking win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lillestrom 60%, Viking 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lillestrom's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Viking's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lillestrom 1.84 PPG, Viking 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Viking win broke the near-deadlock. Lillestrom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward. Viking (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.