Rosenborg 3-2 jerv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rosenborg at 71%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rosenborg vs jerv fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Rosenborg and jerv meet at Lerkendal Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 10 July 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Rosenborg's overall Eliteserien record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rosenborg's home record at Lerkendal Stadion: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
jerv (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for jerv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, jerv have posted 0W 2D 4L from 6 away outings — 0.33 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Rosenborg. A 0.60 PPG lead over jerv (1.40 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading
Rosenborg half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
jerv half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rosenborg 62% versus jerv 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rosenborg 62% | jerv 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 2.34 xG and jerv 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 1.237 / defence 0.896 | jerv attack 0.656 / defence 1.209. League average goals — home 1.566 / away 1.381. jerv bring a strong defensive rating of 1.209 — this is suppressing Rosenborg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 Rosenborg games / 12 jerv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 71% | Draw 17% | jerv 11%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 1.41 | Draw 5.88 | jerv 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Rosenborg (71%) — a 60pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rosenborg at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.15 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Rosenborg 60% | jerv 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs jerv | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Jul 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 71% | Draw 17% | jerv 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 50% | xG Rosenborg 2.34 / jerv 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 1.237 / def 0.896 | jerv attack 0.656 / def 1.209 | league avg home 1.566 / away 1.381 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.34
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
0.81
jerv xG
50%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs jerv kick off?
Rosenborg vs jerv kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 10 July 2022 at Lerkendal Stadion.
What was the final score in Rosenborg vs jerv?
Rosenborg 3 - 2 jerv.
Where is Rosenborg vs jerv being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs jerv part of?
Rosenborg vs jerv is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs jerv?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 71% chance of winning, jerv a 11% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs jerv?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Rosenborg and jerv will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs jerv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and jerv?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rosenborg and jerv in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. jerv (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Rosenborg's attack rating (1.24) and jerv's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 2.34 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — jerv's attack (0.66x) against Rosenborg's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 42/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
71%
1.40
17%
5.72
11%
9.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.34
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
3.15
0.81
jerv xG
1.40
71%
Home win
5.72
17%
Draw
9.02
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
10%
10.40
Win to Nil
32%
3.15
1%
93.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.0 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.5 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.1 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.4 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs jerv?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and jerv expected to score?
The model projects 2.34 expected goals for Rosenborg and 0.81 for jerv, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs jerv?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rosenborg come into this having played 13 games, going 4W 7D 2L for 1.46 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-D. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, jerv sit at 0.92 PPG from 13 outings (3W 3D 7L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for jerv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rosenborg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.54 PPG clear of jerv — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Rosenborg's home form reads 3W 3D 0L across 6 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.46 PPG overall — Rosenborg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, jerv have taken 0.33 points per game from 6 outings (0W 2D 4L). That's a step down from their 0.92 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of jerv's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rosenborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rosenborg are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; jerv are on 0.85 scored and 1.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rosenborg have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 13 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Blended
jerv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rosenborg and jerv in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 4W 7D 2L in their last 13 games (1.46 PPG), while jerv have gone 3W 3D 7L in their last 13 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or jerv away?
Rosenborg's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 2.00 PPG; jerv away: 0.33 PPG.
Have Rosenborg or jerv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rosenborg have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, jerv in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 November 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Rosenborg
0
Draws
0
jerv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and jerv?
From 2 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 2, jerv have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and jerv last play each other?
They last met on 6 November 2022, when jerv 2-4 Rosenborg.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and jerv?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
jerv see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rosenborg 50%, jerv 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Rosenborg and 67% for jerv. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; jerv in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / jerv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rosenborg play jerv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Rosenborg's recent matches and 50% of jerv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rosenborg vs jerv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Rosenborg's matches and 67% of jerv's.
Do Rosenborg and jerv tend to score early?
Rosenborg have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, jerv in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rosenborg edge out jerv 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg beat jerv 3-2 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 2.34 xG and jerv 0.81 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. jerv outscored their 0.81 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 1.24 / defence 0.90 against jerv attack 0.66 / defence 1.21, drawn from 42/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 71% | Draw 17% | jerv 11%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 71%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 62%, jerv 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
jerv's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.46 PPG against 0.92. That form edge translated into the three points. Rosenborg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. jerv (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.