Stromsgodset 3-1 Lillestrom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stromsgodset at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stromsgodset vs Lillestrom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Stromsgodset host Lillestrom at Marienlyst Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 16 May 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stromsgodset stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Stromsgodset at Marienlyst Stadion this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stromsgodset 1.80 xG and Lillestrom 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stromsgodset attack 0.932 / defence 1.116 | Lillestrom attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.682 / away 1.287. Data: 30 Stromsgodset games / 0 Lillestrom games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Stromsgodset 50% | Draw 25% | Lillestrom 25%. Fair-value odds: Stromsgodset 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | Lillestrom 4.00. Stromsgodset hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.80 / 1.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Stromsgodset as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stromsgodset offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.02 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stromsgodset vs Lillestrom | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Marienlyst Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 16 May 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stromsgodset 50% | Draw 25% | Lillestrom 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Stromsgodset 1.80 / Lillestrom 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Stromsgodset attack 0.932 / def 1.116 | Lillestrom attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.682 / away 1.287 • Poisson stance: Stromsgodset (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Stromsgodset xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Lillestrom xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stromsgodset vs Lillestrom kick off?
Stromsgodset vs Lillestrom kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 16 May 2021 at Marienlyst Stadion.
What was the final score in Stromsgodset vs Lillestrom?
Stromsgodset 3 - 1 Lillestrom.
Where is Stromsgodset vs Lillestrom being played?
The match is being played at Marienlyst Stadion.
What competition is Stromsgodset vs Lillestrom part of?
Stromsgodset vs Lillestrom is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stromsgodset vs Lillestrom?
Our statistical model gives Stromsgodset a 50% chance of winning, Lillestrom a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Stromsgodset the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stromsgodset vs Lillestrom?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Stromsgodset and Lillestrom will score (BTTS).
Will Stromsgodset vs Lillestrom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Lillestrom?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Stromsgodset and Lillestrom in?
Stromsgodset (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Stromsgodset home split: 0.70 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 2.10 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Stromsgodset's attack rating (0.93) and Lillestrom's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.80 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lillestrom's attack versus Stromsgodset's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (30/0 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Stromsgodset Win
50%
2.00
25%
3.98
25%
4.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Stromsgodset xG
Total xG
3.02
1.22
Lillestrom xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
4.03
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
30%
3.39
16%
6.07
Win to Nil
15%
6.77
4%
24.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 5.9 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 10.7 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stromsgodset vs Lillestrom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Stromsgodset and Lillestrom expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Stromsgodset and 1.22 for Lillestrom, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Stromsgodset vs Lillestrom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stromsgodset
Pre-Season
Lillestrom
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stromsgodset and Lillestrom runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 August 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Nov 2021, when Lillestrom won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stromsgodset's record when hosting Lillestrom specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Stromsgodset
0
Draws
5
Lillestrom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Lillestrom?
From 8 meetings on record, Stromsgodset have won 3, Lillestrom have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Stromsgodset and Lillestrom last play each other?
They last met on 17 August 2024, when Stromsgodset 3-2 Lillestrom.
Who has won more matches between Stromsgodset and Lillestrom?
Lillestrom have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stromsgodset home games / Lillestrom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stromsgodset cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Lillestrom.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stromsgodset beat Lillestrom 3-1 at Marienlyst Stadion, Regular Season - 3, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stromsgodset 1.80 xG and Lillestrom 1.22 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Stromsgodset beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stromsgodset attack 0.93 / defence 1.12 against Lillestrom attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 30/0 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Stromsgodset 50% | Draw 25% | Lillestrom 25%, with Stromsgodset to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.