Lillestrom 1-3 Viking – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lillestrom at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lillestrom vs Viking fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Åråsen Stadion plays host to Lillestrom versus Viking in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Monday 24 May 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Viking's overall Eliteserien record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W W D D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Viking's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lillestrom 1.90 xG and Viking 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lillestrom attack 0.859 / defence 1.150 | Viking attack 0.836 / defence 1.327. League average goals — home 1.663 / away 1.381. Viking bring a strong defensive rating of 1.327 — this is suppressing Lillestrom's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 1 Lillestrom games / 33 Viking games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Lillestrom 49% | Draw 26% | Viking 25%. Fair-value odds: Lillestrom 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Viking 4.00. Lillestrom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.90 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lillestrom as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lillestrom if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.22 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lillestrom vs Viking | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Åråsen Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 24 May 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lillestrom 49% | Draw 26% | Viking 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG Lillestrom 1.90 / Viking 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Lillestrom attack 0.859 / def 1.150 | Viking attack 0.836 / def 1.327 | league avg home 1.663 / away 1.381 • Poisson stance: Lillestrom (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Lillestrom xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Viking xG
64%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lillestrom vs Viking kick off?
Lillestrom vs Viking kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 24 May 2021 at Åråsen Stadion.
What was the final score in Lillestrom vs Viking?
Lillestrom 1 - 3 Viking.
Where is Lillestrom vs Viking being played?
The match is being played at Åråsen Stadion.
What competition is Lillestrom vs Viking part of?
Lillestrom vs Viking is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Lillestrom vs Viking?
Our statistical model gives Lillestrom a 49% chance of winning, Viking a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Lillestrom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lillestrom vs Viking?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Lillestrom and Viking will score (BTTS).
Will Lillestrom vs Viking have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Viking?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lillestrom and Viking in?
Viking (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-D-L. Viking away split: 1.50 PPG from 10 | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Lillestrom's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Viking's defensive record (1.33x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.90. Flip it around — Viking's attack (0.84x) against Lillestrom's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
The sample (1/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lillestrom Win
49%
2.04
26%
3.91
25%
3.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Lillestrom xG
Total xG
3.22
1.33
Viking xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
3.96
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.78
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
15%
6.66
Win to Nil
13%
7.69
4%
26.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 5.3 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 10.0 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lillestrom vs Viking?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Lillestrom and Viking expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Lillestrom and 1.33 for Viking, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Lillestrom vs Viking?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lillestrom
Pre-Season
Viking
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 22 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Viking go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Viking won 5-1 on 23 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lillestrom have gone 0W 0D 5L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Viking — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Lillestrom
0
Draws
7
Viking
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Viking?
From 9 meetings on record, Lillestrom have won 2, Viking have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lillestrom and Viking last play each other?
They last met on 22 July 2026, when Lillestrom 1-2 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Lillestrom and Viking?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 9 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lillestrom home games / Viking away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Viking cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Lillestrom.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking beat Lillestrom 1-3 at Åråsen Stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lillestrom 1.90 xG and Viking 1.33 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Lillestrom fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Viking outscored their 1.33 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lillestrom attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Viking attack 0.84 / defence 1.33, drawn from 1/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Lillestrom 49% | Draw 26% | Viking 25%, with Lillestrom to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Viking win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.