Stabaek 2-3 Lillestrom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lillestrom at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stabaek vs Lillestrom encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Nadderud Stadion plays host to Stabaek versus Lillestrom in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Wednesday 21 July 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Stabaek's overall Eliteserien record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Stabaek, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stabaek's home record at Nadderud Stadion: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Stabaek are significantly better at Nadderud Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Lillestrom have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W D W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lillestrom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Lillestrom have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Lillestrom are the stronger side — 1.30 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
Stabaek — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Lillestrom — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Stabaek 54% and Lillestrom 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stabaek 64% | Lillestrom 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stabaek 1.19 xG and Lillestrom 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stabaek attack 0.657 / defence 1.290 | Lillestrom attack 0.927 / defence 1.066. League average goals — home 1.701 / away 1.129. Stabaek's attack strength of 0.657 is below the league average — the 1.19 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 41 Stabaek games / 11 Lillestrom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stabaek 30% | Draw 32% | Lillestrom 38%. Fair-value odds: Stabaek 3.33 | Draw 3.12 | Lillestrom 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lillestrom are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lillestrom if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Stabaek 40% | Lillestrom 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stabaek vs Lillestrom | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Nadderud Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 21 Jul 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stabaek 30% | Draw 32% | Lillestrom 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 54% | xG Stabaek 1.19 / Lillestrom 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Stabaek attack 0.657 / def 1.290 | Lillestrom attack 0.927 / def 1.066 | league avg home 1.701 / away 1.129 • Poisson stance: Lillestrom (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Stabaek xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Lillestrom xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stabaek vs Lillestrom kick off?
Stabaek vs Lillestrom kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 21 July 2021 at Nadderud Stadion.
What was the final score in Stabaek vs Lillestrom?
Stabaek 2 - 3 Lillestrom.
Where is Stabaek vs Lillestrom being played?
The match is being played at Nadderud Stadion.
What competition is Stabaek vs Lillestrom part of?
Stabaek vs Lillestrom is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stabaek vs Lillestrom?
Our statistical model gives Stabaek a 30% chance of winning, Lillestrom a 38% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Lillestrom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stabaek vs Lillestrom?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Stabaek and Lillestrom will score (BTTS).
Will Stabaek vs Lillestrom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Lillestrom?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Stabaek and Lillestrom in?
Stabaek (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Lillestrom (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Stabaek's attacking strength (0.66x league average) is weighed against Lillestrom's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. Flip it around — Lillestrom's attack (0.93x) against Stabaek's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 41/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lillestrom Win
30%
3.31
32%
3.12
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Stabaek xG
Total xG
2.54
1.35
Lillestrom xG
3.31
30%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
26%
3.86
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
8%
12.79
11%
8.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 10.6 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.7 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.5 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stabaek vs Lillestrom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Stabaek and Lillestrom expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Stabaek and 1.35 for Lillestrom, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Stabaek vs Lillestrom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 11 outings, Stabaek have picked up 0.55 PPG on a 1W 3D 7L record — L-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Stabaek is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lillestrom's form line: 5W 3D 3L from 11 games, 1.64 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-D. The sample for Lillestrom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Lillestrom are the form team by 1.09 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Stabaek.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Stabaek have posted 0.80 PPG from 5 outings (1W 1D 3L).
On the road, Lillestrom have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.64 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lillestrom's season.
Attack vs Defence
Stabaek are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 2.18 conceded per game recently; Lillestrom are on 1.36 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lillestrom in 73%.
Last 11 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stabaek
Blended
Lillestrom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stabaek and Lillestrom in coming into this match?
Stabaek have gone 1W 3D 7L in their last 11 games (0.55 PPG), while Lillestrom have gone 5W 3D 3L in their last 11 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stabaek at home or Lillestrom away?
Lillestrom's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stabaek at home: 0.80 PPG; Lillestrom away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 October 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lillestrom won 3-0 on 27 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stabaek have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Lillestrom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Stabaek
0
Draws
3
Lillestrom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Lillestrom?
From 4 meetings on record, Stabaek have won 1, Lillestrom have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Stabaek and Lillestrom last play each other?
They last met on 8 October 2023, when Stabaek 1-0 Lillestrom.
Who has won more matches between Stabaek and Lillestrom?
Lillestrom have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Stabaek are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Lillestrom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stabaek 20%, Lillestrom 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Stabaek) and 60% (Lillestrom).
On the defensive side: Stabaek have failed to score in 60% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stabaek home games / Lillestrom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stabaek play Lillestrom?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Stabaek's recent matches and 80% of Lillestrom's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stabaek vs Lillestrom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Stabaek's recent games and 60% of Lillestrom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stabaek and Lillestrom tend to score early?
Stabaek have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Lillestrom in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lillestrom edge out Stabaek 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lillestrom beat Stabaek 2-3 at Nadderud Stadion, Regular Season - 1, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stabaek 1.19 xG and Lillestrom 1.35 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Stabaek beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lillestrom outscored their 1.35 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stabaek attack 0.66 / defence 1.29 against Lillestrom attack 0.93 / defence 1.07, drawn from 41/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stabaek 30% | Draw 32% | Lillestrom 38%, with Lillestrom to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stabaek 64%, Lillestrom 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stabaek's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Lillestrom's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lillestrom arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 0.55. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Stabaek (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lillestrom (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.